College Football Best Bets December 26-30 from Steve Makinen:

I had a slower second week of the bowl/playoff season in college football, but I am still 8-6-1 ATS in the “postseason.” That puts my season record at 135-122-6 ATS (52.8%) with games through 12/23. For this set of bowl games, to have more time to review thoroughly all of the CFP contests, I will be covering the games from 12/26-12/30. I will tackle the New Year’s Eve and January games in my next submission. So, let’s get right my college football best bets: 17 games to go through.

 

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Thursday, December 26, 2024

GameAbove Sports Bowl 

Ford Field – Detroit

(225) PITTSBURGH vs. (226) TOLEDO

There is some concern about Pittsburgh’s hunger to show up and compete in this game formerly known as the Motor City Bowl, but I still think this game has the potential to be a physical mismatch. Unfortunately, we’ve seen it several times this bowl/CFP season. This particular bowl series has a history of the MAC being overmatched. In fact, MAC teams are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 appearances. 

Toledo also has not been a great bowl team lately, going 5-9 SU and 4-9-1 ATS in bowl games since 2002. The Rockets also underachieved this season in going 7-5, a game short of their season win prop, so it’s not as if they’ve been playing as a gritty group of 5 team anyway. If you’ve read any of my later bowl analysis, you will also know that teams like Pitt that won 0-3 games (25% or less) the prior season and qualified for a bowl game the next are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) over the last nine bowl seasons when matched against a team not in that situation. Plus, ACC teams are on a 13-5 SU and ATS run versus non-power conference foes in bowl games, and MAC teams have gone 2-19 SU and 5-16 ATS vs. Power Conference opponents in bowl games since 1997.

College Football Best Bet: Let’s roll with Pittsburgh -6.5

Rate Bowl

Chase Field – Phoenix

(227) RUTGERS vs. (228) KANSAS STATE

How often do we see a team that underachieved throughout the season bring their best effort in a bowl game? I would say the answer is not that often. In fact, if either of the teams in the Rate Bowl played grittier this season, it has to be Rutgers. Kansas State, by all rights, should have been competing for a Big 12 title this season with the league in transition and the amount of talent they brought back. Instead, the Wildcats finished 8-4, a full game-and-a-half below the season win prop. They also lost three times outright as favorites of 7 points or more. At the same time, Rutgers won three of its last four to finish 7-5 and should be genuinely happy to be here. Head coach Greg Schiano also usually gets his guys to play in bowl games, as evidenced by his 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS mark in bowl games. Overall, Rutgers is 8-2-1 ATS in bowl games since 2005.

College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Rutgers +6.5 in Phoenix

68 Ventures Bowl 

Hancock Whitney Stadium – Mobile, Alabama

(229) ARKANSAS STATE vs. (230) BOWLING GREEN

The 68 Ventures Bowl has been known by several other names in the past, from Mobile Alabama Bowl to GMAC Bowl, to GoDaddy Bowl to Dollar General Bowl to Lending Tree Bowl to finally what it is now. While the name may be different, one thing that has been consistent lately in the game is that favorites have swept the last four games SU and ATS. They also all went Over the total. At the point of this writing, this has strangely turned out to be one of the more public games of the bowl season, with 91% of the handle backing the Falcons. 

Am I bothered by it? Slightly, but the line is moving along with the support, now up to BGSU -7.5. Why would a game with two 7-5 teams have a point spread of over a TD on it? Well, perhaps because ASU is showing indifference to the game with its transfers and such, quite similarly to Coastal Carolina in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. If you watched that game, you know that CCU was completely overmatched by another 6-6 team. I’m not saying a similar mismatch is in order, but Bowling Green had a better-than-expected season and is looking for a first bowl win in 10 seasons. Plus, although SBC teams have gone 17-11 in the last 28 bowl games against the MAC, they have struggled against the Vegas number, going 10-17-1 ATS.

College Football Best Bet: Let’s go with the MAC team, Bowling Green (-7.5) to get the cover

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Friday, December 27, 2024

Birmingham Bowl

Protective Stadium – Birmingham, Alabama

(231) GEORGIA TECH (-2.5/51.5) vs. (232) VANDERBILT

In my opinion, this is one of the more intriguing matchups of the entire bowl season, as both teams made a splash this year in college football, and both want to end the campaign in a momentum-building fashion for next season. Georgia Tech opened the season with a big upset of Florida State. It nearly closed the year by beating Georgia in a similar fashion. Vanderbilt opened the season with a win prop of 3 but pulled off four sizeable upset wins to reach 6-6 and bowl eligibility. In fact, if you ask me, the fact that both of these teams were used to playing so much in the underdog role, that chip-on-the-shoulder mentality for this one probably sits with the team slotted as the dog. In that sense, I would say it’s advantage Commodores. 

The Yellow Jackets should be concerned since underdogs are on a 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS run in Georgia Tech bowl games. I mentioned Vandy’s low season win prop. It wasn’t surprising, considering that head coach Clark Lea’s team was 2-10 last year. However, teams that won 0-3 games (25% or less) the prior season and qualified for a bowl game the next are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) over the last nine bowl seasons when matched against a team not in that situation. This is a tough one for me as I liked what both teams accomplished this season, and I’m a fan of both QBs, Haynes King of Georgia Tech and Diego Pavia of Vanderbilt, but Vandy hasn’t won a bowl game since 2013, and I feel they will want it more.

College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Vanderbilt +2.5 versus Georgia Tech

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 

Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas

(233) OKLAHOMA vs. (234) NAVY

There is a general belief that teams from the armed forces are typically more solid wagers in the bowl season, especially when matched against typically over-bloated power conference teams. In fact, it would seem to be ideal for this matchup of Navy and Oklahoma, as military teams are on a 5-1 SU and ATS run in the Armed Forces Bowl series since 2016. However, this line has dumped tremendously since opening, in part because of Navy’s trouncing of Army a few weeks ago and partly because the Sooners have lost up to 25 players in the transfer portal. However, OU head coach Brent Venables didn’t fight the portal losses that hard; in fact, he was generally fine with “cutting ties with those who weren’t contributing much, if at all.” Let’s be honest, QB Jackson Arnold, though a loss on paper, was not very good down the stretch, failing to even throw a TD in the final three games. 

I actually like the Sooners at this very low price, as they will have a regional home-field edge in Fort Worth and should be the physically superior team here. They also have a backup QB in Michael Hawkins, who was another highly rated recruit who should be very motivated to make a case for being the QB of the future in Norman. Plus, he is from the Dallas area. 

In terms of trends, favorites have won eight straight Oklahoma bowl games while going 6-2 ATS. Favorites are on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS surge in Navy bowl games as well. In fact, Navy is used to being favored come bowl time. Speaking of bowl favorite/dog bowl trends, here are a couple more: 1) In the last 37 bowl games featuring a team from the AAC, favorites are 28-15 ATS. 2) In the 19 past bowl games that American Athletic Conference teams have played as underdogs of +7 or less, they are just 3-16 SU and ATS! Navy seems too popular of a play to me.

College Football Best Bet: I’m going with Oklahoma as the small -3 favorite

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium – Memphis, Tennessee

(235) TEXAS TECH vs. (236) ARKANSAS

So, this Liberty Bowl game is another that will be tough to recognize for fans of both teams, as Arkansas has a number of starters missing from its normal starting offense, and Texas Tech has also been impacted by the transfer portal, plus a shoulder injury to QB Behren Morton. I think that latter note is the key here, as Morton was very good for the Red Raiders this year, throwing for 3,335 yards and 27 TDs. There were only 36 other passes thrown by the team in 2024. 

On the other sideline, though some players are missing, QB Taylen Green is playing. He had an up-and-down season but is excited about this opportunity to entrench himself as the fixture at the position going forward. His program shows a nice recent bowl trend: favorites have won the last nine Arkansas bowl games while going 7-2 ATS. 

There is also a recent history of Big 12 teams struggling as small dogs in bowl games: Since the end of the 2005 bowl season, Big 12 teams are a brutal 17-35 SU and 20-32 ATS as an underdog of 9 points or less. In terms of the recent history of these two conferences matching up in bowls, as proof of how much stronger the SEC has been than the Big 12 recently, in bowl games with single-digit points spreads either way since 2002, Big 12 teams are just 14-28 SU and 13-28-1 ATS in the matchup.

Incidentally, outright winners have covered the point spread in 22 of the last 23 bowl games between the Big 12 and SEC conferences. Plus, SEC teams have been remarkably proficient when playing as small favorites in bowl games. As chalk of 3.5 points or less, SEC teams are 37-12 SU and 31-16-2 ATS since 2002.

College Football Best Bets: Let’s go with the SEC, Arkansas, as the -1.5 favorite in Memphis

DirecTV Holiday Bowl

Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA

(237) SYRACUSE vs. (238) WASHINGTON STATE

There is no bowl team more affected by the transfer portal than Washington State. In fact, I think fans and Holiday Bowl reps would have been better served to have the Cougars drop out like Marshall chose to. No loss will be bigger than QB John Matter, who may be the most sought-after QB remaining in the portal. 

I picked WaSU at the outset of the bowl season, but I will be changing it. I can’t possibly take a team that has zero interest in being in the game. Look what happened to Coastal Carolina earlier this week. If you’re looking for a trend: Washington State has lost its last six bowl games ATS (1-5 SU). Plus, in bowl games between 1992-2024 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%). Look for Syracuse QB Kyle McCord to cut up this shell of a defense.

College Football Best Bets: Lay the 16-points with Syracuse

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl 

Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas

(239) TEXAS A&M vs. (240) USC

I love bowl situations in which it seems like one of the teams is trying hard to establish a new culture, and they have the talent to do so. Texas A&M has failed to live up to expectations for much of the last decade or so despite amazing recruiting efforts, but new head coach Mike Elko had the Aggies playing for a spot in the SEC title game in the season finale. I’m sure much of his inspiration for the team in getting ready for its Las Vegas Bowl matchup with USC will be in using the contest as a springboard for 2025. 

As it is, TEXAS A&M is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS as a bowl game pick ’em or favorite since 2011, and USC is 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven bowl games. Plus, with the Aggies having gone just 3-9 ATS this season, teams that are 25%+ worse against the spread on the season are 49-28 ATS (63.6%) over the last 11 seasons in bowl games. And regarding the conferences, SEC teams have been remarkably proficient when playing as small favorites in bowl games. As chalk of 3.5 points or less, SEC teams are 37-12 SU and 31-16-2 ATS since 2002.

College Football Best Bets: I’m laying the 3.5-points with Texas A&M

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Saturday, December 28, 2024

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

Fenway Park – Boston

(241) CONNECTICUT vs. (242) NORTH CAROLINA

It would be easy to think that Connecticut, who hasn’t won a bowl game since 2009, would be super hyped for the opportunity to take on an ACC team in the Fenway Bowl. However, looking at things from the North Carolina perspective, how seriously do you think Tar Heels’ players are going to take this game in what will amount to an unofficial tryout for future head coach Bill Belichick? Not to mention the fact that his legendary NFL career was forged in the Boston area. UNC has the better talent by far. If focused, they could roll. 

There have been two prior Fenway Bowl games, and ACC teams have won both. Interestingly, for as much as the Tar Heels have struggled in bowl games lately, their two most recent bowl wins (SU and ATS) since 2013 were over their only two non-power conference foes. On the other sideline, UConn and head coach Jim Mora have each lost their last three bowl games SU and ATS. We also have the betting system active in which teams (UNC) that are 25%+ worse against the spread on the season are 49-28 ATS (63.6%) over the last 11 seasons in bowl games. Plus, ACC teams are on a 13-5 SU and ATS run versus non-power conference foes in bowl games.

College Football Best Bets: I’ll go with future head coach Bill Belichick’s UNC team (-3) in New England

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl 

Yankee Stadium – Bronx, New York

(243) BOSTON COLLEGE vs. (244) NEBRASKA

This is another game in which I have reversed course since the initial release of our CFP guide in which I picked all of the games’ sides and totals against Brent Musburger. Why? Well, I’ve dug through the info and have found several interesting tidbits that I didn’t have at my disposal at the time. For one, Big Ten teams are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS vs. ACC teams in the last nine years of the Pinstripe Bowl game. They love coming to New York typically. 

In addition, Boston College is on current bowl skids of 2-7 SU and 3-9 ATS. In the end though, I think it will be the Cornhuskers that want it more. Although Nebraska followers were probably looking for bigger and better in terms of bowl games when forecasting the 2024 season, for the Cornhuskers to even be playing in a game like the Pinstripe Bowl is an accomplishment. They haven’t played in any bowl game since 2016 and haven’t won one since a year prior to that. 

Playing in bowl games is why the program hired head coach Matt Rhule, and while he was able to achieve the goal in his second season, I think heading into year 3, he will stress the importance of getting a head start with a big performance in the Bronx. Rhule’s team was 6-2 as a favorite this year, most often winning when they were supposed to.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Nebraska -3.5 vs. Boston College

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

University Stadium – Albuquerque, New Mexico

(245) LA LAFAYETTE vs. (246) TCU

Since the opening week of the bowl games being released, it appeared that neither TCU nor Louisiana would have their quarterbacks available for the New Mexico Bowl. Since then, TCU’s Josh Hoover has decided he will play, and apparently, ULL QB Ben Woolridge, injured about a month ago, has determined he will be giving it a try in the game. This is a microcosm of how frustrating it can be to handicap bowl games, particularly early, when rumors of transfer portals and opt-outs run wild. That said, if we have a Hoover vs. Woolridge matchup in Albuquerque, I think we have to look at the potential of a shootout. After all, five of the last six TCU bowl games went Over the total, and Big 12 teams playing as favorites of 7 points or more in bowl games have gone 35-13 Over the total since 1993. With Woolridge running the Ragin’ Cajuns’ offense, it averaged 35.5 PPG. Meanwhile, TCU put up 33.4 PPG and should be emotionally bolstered by Hoover playing.

College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Over 58 in the New Mexico Bowl

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Camping World Stadium – Orlando, Florida

(247) IOWA STATE vs. (248) MIAMI (FL) (-3.5/55.5)

Do you take QB Cam Ward of Miami at his word? Apparently, it was on a Snapchat session with Shedeur Sanders of Colorado that he announced his intentions to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl game against Iowa State and put on a show. Obviously, that is good news for the Hurricanes and should make them as close to normal as we’ve watched them for the 2024 season. 

At one point, this was arguably one of the best teams in the country on offense. Ward’s commitment is “different” for the Hurricanes, giving them a significant motivational boost. Is opponent Iowa State ready for that smoke after getting destroyed in the Big 12 title game? Miami has been a very bad bowl team, but this feels different. Looking at the recent history of this game, favorites have swept the last eight Pop-Tart Bowl games, while going 7-1 ATS. On top of that, since the end of the 2005 bowl season, Big 12 teams are a brutal 17-35 SU and 20-32 ATS as an underdog of 9 points or less.

College Football Best Bet: I’m backing Miami -3 to get a big bowl game performance

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

Arizona Stadium – Tucson, Arizona

(249) MIAMI (OH) vs. (250) COLORADO STATE

Miami (OH)’s football program behind head coach Chuck Martin is clearly trending upward. After winning 11 games last season, the Redhawks again won eight games this season, equaling their posted season win total prop. They have been one of the best-performing teams in bowl games as well, winning their last six ATS. In their program history, they are 2-0 SU and ATS when favored, as they have often played in the dog role. 

Miami (OH) is the rightful favorite here and will be looking to maintain what has always been a steady defensive effort in bowl games. In eight games, they have never allowed more than 28 PPG and are giving up only 20.1 PPG on average. As a league, MAC teams have done well in Tucson, going 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in the Arizona Bowl game series. The other team here, Colorado State, has really struggled in bowl games, going 2-7 SU and ATS in the last nine. One other thing to consider here: Outright winners are on 40-4-1 ATS surge in Mountain West bowl games, meaning laying 3 points shouldn’t be a fret.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 3 points with Miami (OH) and go Under 40.5

Go Bowling Military Bowl 

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium – Annapolis, Maryland

(251) EAST CAROLINA vs. (252) NC STATE

Apologies to those who may have early bet my opinion on the Military Bowl game in the CFP guide. I have immersed myself in information since and have opted for the Wolfpack. Why? NC State could essentially be considered a “big brother” to East Carolina in terms of the hierarchy of the state of North Carolina football. The two teams meet in the Military Bowl in Annapolis. The Wolfpack were just 6-6 on the season but did have to win in an upset to close the season versus UNC to get a bowl bid. That says at least a little about their hunger level to extend the season. 

Are they playing an upstart ECU team off a huge season? Not exactly, the Pirates were just 7-5, with their only win over a bowl team coming against 6-6 UTSA. Should NC State be upset that it is only a 5.5-point favorite? I believe so, and simply being favored in this game and a bowl game featuring these teams has been crucial. Take a look: 1) favorites are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in the first 14 installments of the Military Bowl series. 2) favorites are on a 5-0 SU and ATS streak in East Carolina bowl games 3) favorites are 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS in NC State’s last 15 bowl games. 

Beyond that, we have an NC State team that was just 4-8 ATS this season, and teams that are 25%+ worse against the spread on the season are 49-28 ATS (63.6%) over the last 11 seasons. In terms of the conferences represented here, ACC teams are on a 13-5 SU and ATS run versus non-power conference foes in bowl games, and in the 19 past bowl games that American Athletic Conference teams have played as underdogs of +7 or less, they are just 3-16 SU and ATS.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 6.5 points with NC State

Valero Alamo Bowl – Alamodome – San Antonio

(253) BYU vs. (254) COLORADO (-3/54.5)

Head coach Deion Sanders has put the Colorado football program back on the map, and he did it against all odds, with the media and football experts pretty much stacked against him. Now granted, he might have earned some of the scorn, looking back at the brashness with the way he took over in season one in 2023. However, in 2024, the Buffaloes simply went about their business and won football games and respect because of it. Coach Prime even established that opting out of bowl games is not what will happen under his watch, even for his son, QB Shedeur, the presumptive top pick in the next NFL draft, and CB Travis Hunter, the probable Heisman Trophy winner. It would be quite the surprise if this team didn’t come to play against BYU at the Alamo Bowl. 

The unusual thing about this Alamo Bowl matchup is that both teams are from the same conference. As such, will these trends prove important? 1) Since the end of the 2005 bowl season, the Big 12 teams have been a brutal 17-35 SU and 20-32 ATS as underdogs of 9 points or less. 2) Big 12 teams as favorites are on a 16-7 ATS surge in bowl games.

College Football Best Bet: I’m on Colorado -4 in the Alamo Bowl

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Independence Stadium – Shreveport, Louisiana

(289) LOUISIANA TECH vs. (290) ARMY

Army’s reward for what was a significant season was a date with a pretty stout Marshall team that had the country’s best point spread record in 2024. Unfortunately, after a coach departure and, consequently, an enormous surge in transfer portal entrants, the Herd wound up backing out of the Independence Bowl. To their credit, 5-7 Louisiana Tech stepped in to fill the opening. Should Army be disappointed? Will their effort reflect it? For any other team, I might say yes, but for a team of military soldiers, I seriously doubt it. In fact, I almost pity the Bulldogs for having to match up with a focused Army team after the loss to Navy. If you need a reminder, the last time a team accepted a late bid after a drop was Rutgers in 2021, and that team was trounced by Wake Forest in the Gator Bowl 38-10 with a line similar to this game. 

As it is, favorites own a 13-7 ATS edge in the last 20 Independence Bowl games, including wins in each of the last two years. If you are worried about laying such a big number with Army, consider that the Knights were 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS as double-digit favorites this season, with the only spread losses coming after winning by 17 twice against lines of -17.5 and -18. They have what it takes to lay the hammer.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Army -17.5 versus bowl sub Louisiana Tech

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Monday, December 30, 2024

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Nissan Stadium – Nashville, Tennessee

(257) IOWA vs. (258) MISSOURI

I’ll be quite honest: I was close to pulling the trigger with Iowa here, as I truly believe Missouri underachieved, and Iowa played a lot better than expected offensively this season. That said, it’s hard to get over the fact that they will be without starting QB Cade McNamara here, and the Tigers will own a big talent and experience edge at the key position with Brady Cook. The bowl series trends favored Iowa, the coaching experience edge was big for Iowa, and there was a huge bowl underdogs trend in Mizzou bowl games. 

With all that in mind, I still expect the Hawkeyes to compete well in this game, unlike last year’s SEC matchup versus Tennessee. This is a different animal. How are they going to do so? Obviously, it will have to be with defense, and in my opinion, this is probably the best defensive matchup prior to NYE in any of the bowl games. Why not an Under? After all, the last five Missouri bowl games went Under the total, and SEC bowl teams playing as very small favorites of 3-points or less are on a 23-10 Under the total surge. In 19 of those 33 games, the opponent failed to reach 20 points.

College Football Best Bet: Under 40 in Missouri-Iowa for me

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