College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:
I continue the series on my Seven Motivational Factors for handicapping the college football bowl games with a look at factor #2 – Big Line/Total Movements. For a deeper explanation as to the reasoning behind my list, see the original released article from Monday 12/9.
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I will be releasing each of the factors in separate pieces over the next weeks or so, with the order coming in what can be immediately taken as applicable to those things that will develop in the days/weeks before kickoffs.
No. 2 – Big Line/Total Movements
No. 3 – Excitement Level for the Game
No. 4 – Coming Soon
No. 5 – Head Coaching Importance
No. 6 – Regional or Home-Field Advantage
No. 7 – Performance Relative to Regular Season Expectations
Big Line/Total Movements
I am convinced that college football players and coaches know the point spreads in their bowl games. However, I am not convinced that they follow line moves like actual bettors do. As they say, things like this are best left to the pros. I also inferred earlier that it is impossible to quantify the distractions a team faces in its bowl preparations. Perhaps line movements are the best and only way to even think about doing it. Using only the 2021-2023 bowl seasons as evidence, odds makers essentially paved the road for bettors, as those that followed the action in the 48 games that saw 3-point or bigger line moves went 35-22 ATS (61.4%).
While I wouldn’t consider a line moving a lot in a bowl game a motivating factor for a team, the move itself should stand as a red flag for you when wondering if some unusual situation might be “distracting” a team. In general, oddsmakers are sharp enough at this point in the season to set lines that stay steady over the month-long period of bowl games. In fact, only 66 of about 982 bowl games over the last 32 years have seen line moves of 4.5 points or more from their opening number, and that includes an uptick lately in games where major player injury, opt-out, or suspension announcements were made after opening. It happened 11 times in 2021, six times in 2022, and 11 again last year. In fact, only 25 total games in that three-year span saw line moves of 1/2 -point or less, and six of those were in the playoff semifinals and title games where there is little or no personnel issues to deal with.
Recreational bettors should consider themselves “lucky” because the experts are paving the road to bowl winnings by telling you which team to bet on. As I mentioned, 66 games over the last 32 bowl seasons have seen line movements of 4.5 or more points. Here is the trend:
In bowl games between 1992-2024 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%).
Again, in most cases, line moves this big are typically caused by some distracting factor, such as a coaching change, QB or mass opt-out, suspension, or injury, and rarely due to a “miss” by oddsmakers. In short, with a 61.5% ATS success rate, let the experts interpret the impact that the distraction will have. You can only take advantage of these findings by waiting until as close to kickoff as possible.
For this season, of course we will have some games that will be qualifying, assuming there is no contraction back to the original line. There are only two, as of Monday, 12/16, that had moved at least 4.5 points to one team. That team is in UPPER CASE:
UNLV (+4 to -1) vs. California
SYRACUSE (-6.5 to -11) vs. Washington State
Though no other games officially qualified as of press time, I can almost assure you there will be more by the time the games start.
Concerning totals, there are always a lot more games that move 4.5 points or more off their opening number by game time, but the reason for this can often be the game day weather in addition to all of the other circumstances previously discussed. Regardless of the reason, here is the system for totals:
Bettors have been right at an 80-66-1 (54.8%) rate on totals moving 4.5 points or more since I first started studying bowl games in 1992.
Again, keep an eye on the numbers as you approach game time, but as of this writing, there are no college football bowl games that currently show total moves meeting the criteria.
