College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:

I continue the series on my Seven Motivational Factors for handicapping the college football bowl games with a look at factor #1 – personnel disruptions. For a deeper explanation as to the reasoning behind my list, see the original released article from Monday, December 9.

I will be releasing each of the factors in separate pieces over the next weeks or so, with the order coming in what can be immediately taken as applicable to those things that will develop in the days/weeks before kickoffs.

 

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Seven College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:

No. 1 – This article

Nos. 2-4 – Coming soon

No. 5 – Head Coaching Importance

No. 6 – Regional or Home-Field Advantage

No. 7 – Performance Relative to Regular Season Expectations  

Personnel Disruptions

Before I dive into the actual “personnel disruptions” that are already affecting this year’s college football bowl games, understand that I was going to wait to make this the last factor released, but there has been so much news in the first three days since bowls were announced that it has become a top priority for me to share what we know to this point. There may be nothing more important for you to recognize before placing any wagers.

Many things can cause distractions for a team between the final game of the regular season and the bowl contest. Some of them come out of nowhere, and can throw a team for a loop at the most inopportune time. The glaring examples include coaches leaving, players getting into trouble for grades or behavior, and, of course, the ever-growing number of players choosing to transfer or opt out of games to prepare for the NFL draft.

The player news can happen at any time and for any game. I like to point back to one particularly glaring case in recent years, when, in the 2021 Peach Bowl, one of the bowl season’s crown jewels, Pittsburgh’s star quarterback Kenny Pickett chose to opt out of his program’s biggest bowl game in decades, and the Panthers looked nothing like the team that earned that bowl bid.

A year later, one of the biggest stories came in one of the last bowl games of the season, as Purdue was without its head coach, starting quarterback,  top wide receivers, and several other starters as it prepared to take on LSU in the Citrus Bowl. The line moved from -6.5 to -15, and the line wasn’t anywhere near high enough. LSU rolled 63-7. 

Last year’s black eye in this regard came in what should have been one of the best games of the year, a battle between undefeated Florida State and 1-loss Georgia in the Orange Bowl. After the Seminoles were left out of the CFP in rather controversial fashion because of a starting QB injury to star Jordan Travis, several of the other key members of the team also chose to opt out, leaving a shell of what was one of the country’s best teams all season to face the two-time defending national champs. After the line ballooned from Georgia -13.5 to -21.5, the game wound up even uglier than the 63-3 score indicated.

As usual, there has been a lot of college football coaching activity that will affect the bowl games. THERE WILL BE MORE, so it is usually beneficial to be patient before investing too heavily. Here are some of the main changes to watch for. 

Head coaching situations

–  West Virginia’s Neal Brown was fired following the end of the season and the Mountaineers were close to naming a replacement. Offensive coordinator Chad Scott was to serve as the interim coach for the Frisco Bowl game.

–  UNLV’s Barry Odom was lured away by Purdue after two fantastic seasons in Sin City. Current wide receivers coach Del Alexander was put in charge on an interim basis for the LA Bowl matchup with Cal.

–  Sam Houston State’s KC Keeler became a hot commodity after leading the Bearkats to a successful 8-4 season, and he opted for an “upgrade” at Temple of all places. Offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen takes over for the New Orleans Bowl.

–  Tim Albin, off an unexpected MAC title season, left Ohio U to take the head job at Charlotte. Albin’s offensive coordinator, Brian Smith, was left to pick tp the pieces on an interim basis for the Cure Bowl game.

–  Fresno State’s Tim Skipper has had the “interim” tag stuck on him ever since a year ago when he filled in for Jeff Tedford, who has having health concerns.

–  North Carolina made a splashy hire, bringing in Bill Belichick to replace Mack Brown, but in the meantime, tight ends coach and running game coordinator Freddie Kitchens takes over for the Fenway Bowl matchup vs. UConn.

–  The Marshall staff took a hit for the bowl after head coach Charles Huff left for Southern Miss, a move seen as a downgrade if you ask me, especially after the Herd’s impressive 2024 season. Associate HC/running backs coach Telly Lockette takes over for the Independence Bowl game versus Army.

–  The most recent coaching announcement concerned Rich Rodriguez and Jacksonville State. He has accepted the head coaching job at West Virginia, a place he formerly coached. It is assumed that he will pass the JSU duties on to an interim coach for the Cure Bowl game. 

Distractions don’t always turn out negatively for a team however, so be careful not to assume that as you assess the specific situations. Plenty of bettors fell victim to it in the 2021 Alamo Bowl game between Oklahoma and Oregon. Sooners’ players reacted very well to longtime former coach Bob Stoops coming back in place of the departed Lincoln Riley in their bowl game, routing Oregon 47-32. 

In one of last year’s more interesting games, Notre Dame’s QB Sam Hartmann toyed with the idea of opting out to get ready for the NFL draft for much of the leadup into the Sun Bowl game versus Oregon State. The line dumped five points towards the Beavers. Once he decided to play, the Irish were galvanized, and the line didn’t respond. They went on to a 40-8 victory.

Some teams may take a coaching change, key injury(s), backups’ chance to step in for opt-outs, or a key player choosing to, in fact, play and use it as a motivational source. In fact, last year, after Curt Cignetti decided to leave James Madison for Indiana, many of the JMU players in the transfer portal decided to still play in the school’s first-ever bowl game. It sounds like a similar situation could be occurring at Sam Houston State. 

Without getting too deep into specific opt-outs for every game, there are several quarterback availability scenarios that will play out in the time leading up to the respective games. Everyone reading this knows how much value I place on that key position in college football. Here, they are broken up into various categories. If you need more on these or on other key players at other positions, please google “bowl game opt-outs” and you’ll get plenty of sources to choose from for news.

Injuries to starting quarterbacks?

– South Alabama’s Gio Lopez is battling a leg injury of some sort, and it’s been unclear whether or not he will be able to go against Western Michigan in the Salute to Veteran’s Bowl. The line moved 3.5 towards WMU this week, perhaps stemming from the belief he will not.

– James Madison QB Alonza Barnett, who had a huge year (26-4 TD-int ratio, 2598 yards) is expected to miss the Boca Raton Bowl with a knee injury.

– With Cal QB Fernando Mendoza in the transfer portal, watch the status of backup Chandler Rogers, as he was hurt in the season finale.

– The status of South Florida’s QB Byrum Brown, who has been out since week 5, has been unclear, to say the least. The line seems to be pointing to him NOT playing.

– Pitt’s QB Eli Holstein endured a rough end to the season, which featured multiple injuries. His status for the GameAbove Sports Bowl appears to be up in the air, and the line would seem to indicate he will miss. Backup Nate Yarnell is also in the transfer portal.

– With original starter Ben Woolridge already lost for the season, backup QB Chandler Fields was injured in the Sun Belt title game. His status is unclear for the New Mexico Bowl.

– Washington’s QB Will Rogers was benched in the season finale, and it sounds as if head coach Jedd Fisch will go with Demond Williams for the Sun Bowl.

– Virginia Tech has done a terrible job over the past month updating the status of starting QB Kyron Drones, who missed multiple games to end the season. Making matters worse, backup Collin Schlee was injured in the last game.

Quarterbacks opting out potentially

– Georgia Tech’s QB Haynes King – news has been anything but clear, could play, could opt out, could transfer

– Miami’s Cam Ward has indicated he will play in the Pop Tarts Bowl, but I’ve seen stranger things happen than him being a potential late opt out

– Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders – Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders expects everyone to play, but will the NFL’s potential #1 pick?

– Missouri QB Brady Cook has not clearly defined his playing status for the Music City Bowl

– Alabama’s Jalen Milroe? 

There are several other key players or groups of players opting out or hitting the transfer portal. The teams that seem to be most affected by the potential opt-outs would include West Virginia, Oklahoma, both Alabama and Michigan for the ReliaQuest Bowl, Louisville, South Carolina, LSU, Ole Miss, and both Minnesota & Virginia Tech for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The transfer portal name lists are biggest at Sam Houston State, Washington State, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, USC, and Marshall. 

Quarterbacks in the transfer portal (follow the news wires as some of these players may still play for their current teams):

– Western Kentucky’s Caden Veltkamp

– Cal QB Fernando Mendoza

– Tulane QB Darian Mensah (already committed to Duke)

– Coastal Carolina’s top two QBs Noah Kim & Ethan Vasko

– Northern Illinois’ Ethan Hampton and Fresno State’s Mikey Keene – teams square off in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

– Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold

– TCU QB Josh Hoover

– Marshall QB Braylon Braxton

– Iowa QB Cade McNamara

– Duke’s Maalik Murphy

– North Texas’ Chandler Morris

– Liberty’s Kaidon Salter 

The players opting out/transferring situation is one we will have to continue to watch all the way up until kickoff. Thankfully, unlike the 2020 and 2021 seasons, we won’t be having entire teams opt out. However, bettors have to realize how big of a deal this opting-out situation can be. I already mentioned a few scenarios earlier that come to mind, but the game affected most recently was the Quick Lane Bowl game between Nevada and Western Michigan. Nevada’s star QB Carson Strong, along with head coach Jay Norvell and several of Strong’s most prominent teammates, opted out of the Detroit festivities, and the line moved from Wolf Pack -7.5 to +6.5, a full 14-point swing. What was left of the Nevada roster was pummeled by the more inspired Broncos, 52-24.

Brutally, this trend is gaining more steam, not less. Hopefully, the expansion of the playoffs puts at least 12 teams in a position in which they will go to battle at full or near-full strength. Otherwise, I would hope the NCAA could step in and create some sort of incentivization for players to stick around for these entertaining college football bowl contests, which are supposed to be a reward earned for a good season.

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