College Football Bowl Game Systems by Conference:
There are always a lot of data points on which to judge teams in any given bowl game. One of them should be looking back at how that program has fared recently in bowl action. With that in mind, here is a quick trend look at some of the best and worst bowl game team trends, on both sides and totals, affecting this year’s participants. Note that the trends include bowl and playoff games and teams are sorted in alphabetical order.
One of the intriguing things about bowl season each year is how the various conferences match up against one another. Some bowl series have specific conference vs. conference matchups lined up each year, while others vary from year to year.
The specific matchups, which bowl games mean more to each conference and how each conference is perceived by the oddsmakers are just a few of the things that can influence potential results. For instance, lower-level leagues may get more motivation from playing a power conference opponent. Alternatively, they may be simply overmatched in talent, and the bigger the bowl game, the more this point tends to be magnified. I believe that how a team perceives its respect level — for its team and the conference it is representing — plays a big role in how that game goes.
I’ve separated all of the conferences in college football and determined their performance records in all kinds of situations in bowl games. Among these situations are line and total ranges, level of bowl game and, perhaps most importantly, how they fare against the other conferences.
For the record, I have trimmed this piece down over the last couple of years to focus on the angles that continue to thrive consistently. With that in mind, I have a Top 25 list of some of the most potent or applicable conference betting systems.
So here’s the list for 2025-26 with the qualifying games.
ACC
1. ACC teams are on a 4-17 SU and 3-18 ATS skid in bowl games overall
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST CALIFORNIA, CLEMSON, DUKE, GEORGIA TECH, LOUISVILLE, MIAMI FL, NC STATE, PITTSBURGH, SMU, VIRGINIA, WAKE FOREST
2. ACC teams are on a 9-30 SU and 11-28 ATS skid versus Big Ten and SEC opponents in bowl games dating to 2017
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST CLEMSON, MIAMI FL, VIRGINIA, WAKE FOREST
3. On totals, since 2010, when ACC bowl teams have been favored by four points or fewer, they are 31-15 Under the total.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: Under the total in CALIFORNIA, CLEMSON and DUKE bowl games
American Athletic
4. In the last 51 bowl games featuring a team from the AAC, favorites are 37-14 SU and 33-17-1 ATS.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST EAST CAROLINA, MEMPHIS, RICE, TULANE – ON ARMY, NAVY, NORTH TEXAS, SOUTH FLORIDA, TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
5. In the 22 past bowl games that American Athletic Conference teams have played as underdogs of +7 or less, they are just 4-18 SU and ATS.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST EAST CAROLINA, MEMPHIS
6. In AAC bowl games against the Group of 5 or Independent opponents, favorites are on a 21-6 ATS surge.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST EAST CAROLINA, RICE – ON ARMY, NORTH TEXAS, SOUTH FLORIDA, TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
Big Ten
7. Big Ten teams are on an extended run of 43-12 SU and 38-16-1 ATS as a bowl game favorite of two points or more dating to 2007
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: ON MINNESOTA, NORTHWESTERN, OREGON, USC – note Washington already extended this trend by a game with its LA Bowl win over Boise State. Favorites are on a run of 27-9 SU and 24-12 ATS in the crucial playoff or Big 6-level bowl games
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: ON INDIANA, OHIO STATE, OREGON
Big 12
9. Since the end of the 1997 season, Big 12 teams are a brutal 18-24 SU and 15-27 ATS as a small favorite of -3.5 or less in bowl games
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST ARIZONA, HOUSTON
10. Big 12 teams as favorites of four points or more are on a 20-11 ATS surge in bowl games
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: ON BYU, UTAH
11. As proof of how much stronger the SEC has been than the Big 12 recently, in bowl games with single-digit point spreads either way since 2002, Big 12 teams are just 14-30 SU and 13-30-1 ATS in the matchup. Incidentally, outright winners have covered the point spread in 24 of the last 26 bowl games between the Big 12 and SEC conferences.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST HOUSTON
12. Big 12 teams are just 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS in the last 15 bowl games against non-power conference or independent foes
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST CINCINNATI
13. Big 12 teams playing as favorites of seven points or more in bowl games have gone 36-14 Over the total since 1993
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: Over the total in UTAH bowl game
14. In Big 12 bowl games expected to be lower scoring (totals of 47.5 or less), Big 12 teams are just 11-20 SU and 8-22-1 ATS since 1997
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST HOUSTON
Conference USA
15. Playing in the small underdog role of less than seven points has not been kind to C-USA teams, with a record of 13-30 SU and 15-28 ATS since 2001.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST DELAWARE, KENNESAW STATE, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
16. Favorites are on an amazing 27-3 SU and 22-7-1 ATS run in bowl games between C-USA and MAC opponents.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST KENNESAW STATE
17. C-USA/Sun Belt bowl games have trended Over lately, going 20-6-1 on that side of the total.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: Both C-USA/Sun Belt bowl games have been played already, and the totals were 1-1
Independents
18. Independent teams are on a phenomenal 17-8 SU and 18-7 ATS run in bowl games since 2017
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: ON CONNECTICUT
MAC
19. MAC bowl teams have lost all 18 times outright, going 6-12 against the spread, when playing as underdogs of eight points or more, beaten by an average of 23.7 PPG.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
20. MAC teams have gone 3-19 SU and 6-16 ATS vs. Power conference opponents in bowl games since 1997
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST CENTRAL MICHIGAN, TOLEDO
Mountain West
21. Outright winners are on a 46-4-1 ATS surge in Mountain West bowl games!
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: Seven Mountain West teams received bowl bids this season, including Boise State, which lost outright and ATS to Washington in the LA Bowl to extend this trend one game
22. As mid-range favorites of -3.5 to -9.5 points, Mountain West teams are 7-20 ATS in the last 27 bowl games
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: AGAINST UNLV, FRESNO STATE
SEC
23. SEC teams have been remarkably proficient when playing as small favorites in bowl games. As chalk of 3.5 points or less, SEC teams are 38-13 SU and 32-17-2 ATS since 2002.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: ON TEXAS A&M, MISSISSIPPI STATE
24. Similar to the Big Ten, favorites are on a run of 23-4 SU and 19-8 ATS in the crucial playoff or Big 6-level bowl games
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: ON OLE MISS, TEXAS A&M, GEORGIA – ALABAMA/OKLAHOMA face one another, ALABAMA is a -1.5-point favorite as of press time
Sun Belt
25. Sun Belt bowl matchups against the American Athletic, Mountain West and Conference USA have been high scoring with Over the total 32-15-1 in those games since 2004.
Qualifying teams for 2025-26: Over the total in ARKANSAS STATE, COASTAL CAROLINA, LOUISIANA, OLD DOMINION, SOUTHERN MISS, TEXAS STATE, TROY bowl games
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