College Football Bowl Game Team Trends, Hot and Not:
As promised, I’m sharing as much information as possible for the bowl games over the next week or so. Today, I’m looking at the betting angles that have formed on the bowl teams as they closed their regular seasons. Even though only teams .500 or better (except Louisiana Tech) are typically invited to bowl games, not all teams go into their bowl games playing well. Others are peaking.
My seven-part series on Motivational Factors for bowl games included “Summary of Season” and detailed how teams fare in bowl games relative to their expected body of work for the season. The lists below are a little different in that they take a more “what have you done for me lately” approach.
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I don’t have any stellar systems to back them up, but I can tell you this … the 21 teams on the HOT list last year went just 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS in their bowl games. The teams on the NOT list were 10-7 SU but 12-5 ATS. As such, although it can be important at times, it pays not to overreact too much about how a team played down the stretch, particularly with multiple weeks between games.
Concerning totals, the 13 teams I shared on significant Over runs went 6-7 Over the total, while the 12 on Under runs were 3-9 Under for the bowl season. Again, don’t overreact to what happened in November or prior. The time off has a way of bringing things back to the norm. For what it’s worth, I never make a wager based solely on anything on this list and find it more entertainingly informative than anything. We’ll follow along again this season.
Take a look at the following lists of trends, detailing the hot and not teams, as well as those that are currently on definitive totals runs.
Hot teams heading into their bowl games
· ARIZONA STATE was 11-2 ATS overall in 2024 and closed the season on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak
· BAYLOR was a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the second half of its season
· BOSTON COLLEGE won its final five games against the spread
· COLORADO goes into bowl game on a 9-1 ATS surge
· COLORADO STATE was 7-1-1 ATS in its final nine games
· DUKE posted a 7-1-1 ATS record in its final nine games
· FLORIDA in on an 8-1 ATS surge
· JACKSON STATE was 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in its final nine games
· LOUISIANA TECH won its final five games of the season ATS
· MINNESOTA closed the regular season on a 7-1 ATS surge
· MISSOURI was 6-1 ATS in its final seven games
· NOTRE DAME goes into the CFP having won 10 straight SU and eight straight ATS
· OHIO U closed its season with six straight outright and ATS wins
· SOUTH CAROLINA STATE closed the season on a 7-0 SU and ATS streak
· SOUTH CAROLINA closed the season on runs of 6-0 SU and 6-1 ATS
· UTSA salvaged its season with a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS finish
Not hot teams heading into their bowl games
· ARMY was just 2-5 ATS in its final seven games after a 6-0 ATS start
· BYU lost its last four games after an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS start
· COASTAL CAROLINA closed the 2024 regular season on a2-5 SU and ATS skid
· GEORGIA covered the point spread in just three of its last 12 games
· IOWA STATE was just 2-5 ATS in its final seven games
· KANSAS STATE won ATS just once in its final five games of 2024
· LSU’s finale win over Oklahoma snapped a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS skid
· NORTHERN ILLINOIS was just 1-5 ATS in its final six games
· NEBRASKA was 1-5 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in the final six games after a 5-1 start
· NORTH CAROLINA stumbled to a 2-9 ATS mark in its final 11 games
· NORTH TEXAS was 1-5 down stretch, losing its last five games ATS
· PITTSBURGH lost its last five games while going 1-4 ATS
· SAM HOUSTON STATE was just 1-5 ATS in its final six games
· SAN JOSE STATE’s point spread record in its last eight games was just 2-6 ATS
· TEXAS won just two of its final seven games ATS
· TEXAS A&M stumbled to a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS finish
· WESTERN KENTUCKY covered just one of its final six games ATS
· WASHINGTON STATE closed the season on a three-game SU and ATS skid
Teams on significant Over the total runs
· ARIZONA STATE went OVER the total in five of its last six games
· BAYLOR was 7-1-1 OVER the total in its final nine games
· BOSTON COLLEGE went 6-0 OVER the total in the second half of 2024
· BUFFALO went UNDER in the season finale after seven straight OVERs
· INDIANA closed the season on a 9-2 OVER the total surge
· Five of MEMPHIS’ final six games went OVER the total
· PENN STATE’s last four games went OVER the total
· RUTGERS was 6-1 OVER the total in the last seven games
· SOUTH FLORIDA was 5-1 OVER the total in the final six games
· SYRACUSE played five November games going 4-0-1 OVER the total
· TEXAS STATE is on a streak of four straight OVERs on totals
· TEXAS TECH posted five OVERs in its final six games
· UTSA went OVER the total in six of its final seven games
· WEST VIRGINIA was 5-1 OVER the total in the second half of the season
Teams on significant Under the total runs
· ALABAMA was 5-1 UNDER down the stretch after going 5-1 OVER prior
· BOISE STATE was 6-2 UNDER in its final eight games
· BOWLING GREEN was 6-2 UNDER the total in Oct/Nov games
· JAMES MADISON was 6-2 UNDER the total in its last eight games
· LIBERTY was 3-8 ATS overall in its 11 regular-season games
· OHIO STATE went UNDER the total in seven of its last nine games
· OLE MISS was 10-1 UNDER the total in its Sep/Oct/Nov games
· The last six SAM HOUSTON STATE games all went UNDER the total
· TEXAS closed the season on a 7-1-1 UNDER the total surge
· VANDERBILT was 5-1-1 UNDER down the stretch after a 5-0 OVER start