College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems – Home-Field Advantage for 2024:

If you’ve been with VSiN in any bowl season since our initial Bowl Guide back in 2017, you’re probably well familiar with my annual piece detailing my Motivational Factors Checklist that I incorporate for handicapping each and every bowl game. This checklist is essentially the foundation for my bowl handicapping. I believe that you have to have a handle on these variables for each game, or you won’t be successful. Sure, you may win some games by going against the logic, but over the course of the season, it’s unlikely. 

This past year, it worked very well for me in the Guide, as in picking ALL 42 bowl game sides and totals, I wound up 45-39 and then added a side/total in the CFP title game to go 47-39, a solid 54.7% result. It wasn’t my best bowl season, and it was down from the 2022 season in which I went 58.3% anytime, but this record came in games I picked two days after the bowls were announced. I had an even better record on my Best Bets in both years. To say the work that I put into this motivational factors list is worth it is an understatement.

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

Just a little background on how this Motivational Factors piece has developed over the years. In essence, it is a culmination of strategies that I have built upon and adapted over about 30 years. For as much change has occurred to the bowl season over the years, from a betting standpoint, many fundamentals are the same and will be the same for as long as they have bowl games.

I have always believed that bowl games offer the bettor the best chance at success since the time to prepare is unmatched on the yearly schedule, especially considering your knowledge of the teams after 12 or 13 games. In my opinion, my seven-factor checklist for bowl games does just that. 

The way I see it, anything that goes into a team’s mindset or physical readiness can affect its motivational level. Over the next few weeks, be sure to stay on top of the news wires for stories that can affect each team. Believe me, there are ALWAYS unexpected news stories that affect these games.

I will be releasing each of the factors in separate pieces over the next couple weeks or so, with the order coming in what can be immediately taken as applicable to those things that will develop in the days/weeks before kickoffs.

Seven College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:

Nos. 1-5 – Coming soon

No. 6 – Regional or Home-Field Advantage (this article)

No. 7 – Performance Relative to Regular Season Expectations

Regional or Home-Field Advantage

This is System No. 6 on my list, but we know the sites of bowl games, so this is actionable now.

Typically, in the bowl season, travel logistics can play a factor for teams & fans. It all affects how a game plays out. Over the course of the last 23 seasons, 34 bowl games have been played at one of the teams’ home fields, including one a year ago in which Memphis upset Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl. The host teams are 19-15 SU & ATS in those games. In 2024, we have a team once again playing on its home field, and that is Coastal Carolina, who takes on UTSA in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. The Chanticleers may be without their top two quarterbacks, however. It seems the transfer portal may have swallowed them up.

The advantage that isn’t always as glaring, and therefore often overlooked, is a regional advantage. There are many examples of teams playing bowl games in their home state, perhaps less than three hours from their campus. The chances for that team to feel as if they are the home team by rallying their fans to the cause are much greater than the opponent, who, along with its fans, has to endure more rigorous travel to get to a bowl game.

The examples of the latter are many-fold. Unfortunately, the degree of advantage for the “regional home” teams in bowl games has wavered a lot in recent years. In fact, in the four years prior to last season, I had categorized 26 different games that had a significant regional field advantage. Those teams went 12-14 ATS, and that level of mediocrity has but a dent into a strong betting angle that was 25-15 ATS prior. Last year, the logic rebounded quite nicely with an 8-3 ATS mark. Now, in the last 84 games, these teams’ record on my ledger is 47-37 ATS (56%), still quite profitable, so I will continue to keep it as part of my bowl preparations.

The trouble for odds makers is that this home field edge is difficult to quantify, and as a result, most bowl games not at a specific home field are treated as neutral games. Therefore, this can be an easy spot for bettors to pick up at least a point or two of value on a line, with NOTHING ELSE factored in.

The list is a bit longer than ‘23 for this year’s games, so we’ll see how it affects the performance of factor #6. Some of the more distinct advantages would include California, Toledo, Connecticut, and North Texas, all playing within an hour of their campuses. 

Here’s a look at the matchups that would qualify as regional or home field advantage games on the 2024-25 bowl board:

 –   South Alabama (Regional) vs. Western Michigan in Cramton Bowl

–    California (Regional) vs. UNLV in LA Bowl

–    Florida (Regional) vs. Tulane in Gasparilla Bowl

–    Coastal Carolina (HOME) vs. UTSA in Myrtle Beach Bowl

–    Toledo (Regional) vs. Pittsburgh in GameAbove Sports Bowl

–    Vanderbilt (Regional) vs. Georgia Tech in Birmingham Bowl

–    Oklahoma (Regional) vs. Navy in Armed Forces Bowl

–    Connecticut (Regional) vs. North Carolina in Fenway Bowl

–    Boston College (Regional) vs. Nebraska in Pinstripe Bowl

–    Miami (Regional) vs. Iowa State in Pop Tarts Bowl-    North Texas (Regional) vs. Texas State in First Responder Bowl

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR