College Football Conference Championship Predictions
In the blink of an eye, the college football regular season has come and gone and somehow Christmas is right around the corner. Time really does fly when you’re having fun. Now, we turn our attention to conference championship week, where conference supremacy, bragging rights, and postseason destinations will be determined. Ohio State and Indiana finished the season as the only undefeated teams in FBS, and they’ll square off Saturday night in Indianapolis, with both likely getting a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, regardless of what happens in that game. The AAC champ is likely in the playoff, so the North Texas vs. Tulane battle at Tulane has huge implications for those programs. BYU, Alabama, and both ACC championship game participants likely need wins Saturday to secure a spot in the CFP. TSI has projections fired up for all the championship games, so let’s get to a couple of bets that stuck out to me for championship week.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T-Score Index, a full explanation can be found here.
Indiana vs Ohio State (-5.5), O/U 48.5
Before the season, TSI would’ve made this line Ohio State -16; however, the Hoosiers not only repeated their winning ways from last year, they took it up a notch behind QB Fernando Mendoza and a very stout defense. Ohio State followed up their national championship run with a business-like 12-0 record, winning every game but one by double digits. TSI projects Indiana as a 1.5-point favorite in this game, indicating huge value on the Hoosiers. My apprehension in betting Indiana here is that 1. The Hoosiers relentlessly ran the score up on overmatched opponents when they had the chance. 2. Ohio State admittedly throttled down the tempo this year to stay fresh for a postseason run, opting for a more boa constrictor-like approach than a run-it-up-at-all-costs approach, so don’t be shocked to see them really ramp up the tempo moving forward.
This Ohio State team reminds me of 2023 Michigan, where it was truly hard to gauge how high their rating actually should be because it’s hard to quantity intent, and I truly don’t believe Ohio State’s intent has been to maximize all four quarters every game, both from a tempo perspective and from a substitution perspective, where backups often saw first half action this season. The last point of apprehension would be that Indiana’s biggest games of the season were all very, very close, outside of the dominant win at Oregon, which was arguably the best win in college football this year. The Hoosiers played very close with 8-4 Iowa, and arguably should have lost to the corpse of Penn State, if not for a miraculous last-second touchdown catch by a Hoosiers’ receiver.
However, on the flip side, Ohio State is coming off of a huge, emotional win over bitter rival Michigan and didn’t get to leave Ann Arbor until late Saturday night due to weather, so perhaps there’s a bit of a letdown spot here for the Buckeyes, though those spots typically are against bad teams, not in the conference championship game. The math says to play Indiana +5.5 here, and the market has bought the Hoosiers as well, but I’m not as sold on that play.
TSI Pick: Indiana +5.5
Alabama vs Georgia (-2.5), O/U 47.5
These storied SEC programs will battle once again for the SEC championship Saturday, with Alabama having handed the Bulldogs their only loss of the season, despite playing some very close games along the way. When they met in September, the Tide won 24-21, but the SEC championship game over the last five years has averaged 66.5 points in regulation, and TSI projects 52 here, with the market also starting to creep up. Kirby Smart has had his issues defeating the Tide over the years, largely due to Nick Saban, but Georgia has looked better than Alabama lately, so I’m not sure where to go from a spread perspective, but I do think this game will get points-y, and TSI projects a pick ‘em, so there’s the potential for overtime as well. I like the Over between these two rivals.
TSI Pick: Over 47.5
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