College Football Game 2 Reactionary Betting Systems:
The start of any college football season for a team is always a huge emotional event. All of the work that went into the offseason is basically put to the test in the first game. Winning or losing that game can be a make-or-break outcome, and naturally, teams have a varying degree of response based upon that result. The situational enormity of that first game or the level/type of opponent played can also play a role in how that team responds going forward. Studying the results of teams’ second games based on their first game performance is a form of system handicapping, and that is exactly what I’ve done for this article.
Think about all of the results and massive implications we witnessed this past weekend in college football and how they might impact the teams both in their next game and going forward. For instance, are teams like Clemson, Texas, Alabama or Notre Dame already in trouble after high-profile losses in Week 1? Was Boise State heavily overrated coming into 2025? Has the growth of NIL put the days of laying big points in jeopardy? We’ll find out the answers to these questions eventually, but for now, take a look at five different concepts that you should be considering when analyzing the game 2 lines for every team.
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #1- FCS letdown: Teams that faced a FBS foe in game 1 and are favored by 30 points or more versus a FCS opponent for game 2 have gone just 85-113-6 ATS (42.9%) since 2012. This includes a 12-20-1 ATS mark over the last two years.
POTENTIAL System Matches (FADE ALL after confirming final lines): BOISE STATE, NORTHWESTERN, ARIZONA, BUFFALO, CALIFORNIA, COLORADO STATE, EAST CAROLINA, FLORIDA STATE, GEORGIA, GEORGIA TECH, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, OHIO STATE, SOUTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, UCF, UTAH, WASHINGTON
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #2 – FCS game 2 foes not an easy rebound: Teams coming off a FBS loss in game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over a FCS team in game 2 have gone just 44-69-2 ATS (38.9%) since 2012, including 2-5-1 ATS last year.
POTENTIAL System Matches (FADE ALL after confirming final lines): BOISE STATE, NORTHWESTERN, BUFFALO, COLORADO STATE, EAST CAROLINA, EASTERN MICHIGAN, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, LA LAFAYETTE
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #3 -FCS foes not adequate prep for conference play: Teams that are double-digit conference favorites in game 2 after having just a FCS opening game under their belt have gone just 7-4 SU BUT 2-9 ATS (18.2%) over the last 13 seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): NAVY (-21 vs. UAB)
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #4 – Home cooking not enough to revive struggling offense: Teams that scored 10 points or fewer in their season opening losses of 17 points or more have responded with just a 44-60-2 ATS (42.3%) record when playing at home in game #2 over the last decade-plus.
System Match (FADE ALL): BOISE STATE, BUFFALO, CLEMSON, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, GEORGIA STATE, JACKSONVILLE STATE, MARSHALL, MASSACHUSETTS, NORTHWESTERN, TEXAS, WESTERN MICHIGAN
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #5 – Oddsmakers don’t have a true grasp on some teams early: Teams whose lines swing grossly huge amounts from game 1 to game 2 have performed predictably, with 52 points being the benchmark. Those teams whose lines are 52 points or more worse in game 2 than their opener are on a 40-19 ATS (67.8%) run. Teams whose lines are >=52 points better than the opener have gone just 19-27-2 ATS (41.3%) over the last 13 seasons.
POTENTIAL System Matches (PLAY ALL based upon final lines qualifying): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+41.5 at Penn State), LA MONROE (+37.5 at Alabama), DELAWARE (+23.5 at Colorado ), KENT STATE (+48.5 at Texas Tech), LOUISIANA TECH (+37.5 or more at LSU), TROY (+32.5 or more at Clemson), KANSAS? (+6.5 or more at Missouri), SAN JOSE STATE? (+38 or more at Texas)
(FADE ALL): OHIO STATE (-53.5 or more vs. Grambling), MIAMI (FL) (-49 or more vs. Bethune-Cookman), FLORIDA STATE (-38.5 or more vs. East Texas A&M), COLORADO STATE (-29.5 or more vs. Northern Colorado), BUFFALO (-35.5 or more vs. St Francis PA), NEW MEXICO (-17.5 or more vs. Idaho State)
For more Week 2 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 2 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
