College Football National Championship Futures from the T Shoe Index:

Four teams have already been eliminated from this first edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff, and odds have shifted accordingly. There was a time just days ago that you could get some of these teams at 10:1 or better, but those odds have since shortened (rightfully so), so is there any value left in the National Championship market, according to my T Shoe Index? I’ll lay out a couple of teams I think would be worth considering:

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

Notre Dame +550

I’m not sure anyone or any model has been as bullish on the Irish this season as TSI, going all the way back to Week 1 when I had them projected as a touchdown favorite at Texas A&M. Despite the market making them underdogs, they won by 10. “But they lost to NIU!” I’m aware; as a predictive data point, that’s about as meaningful as the Panthers beating the Chiefs. It’s irrelevant. Since then, they’ve destroyed everyone in their path, including Indiana in the first round of the CFP. They’re currently +105 on the money line against Georgia, but then would likely be favored over Penn State (or Boise State). Depending on who comes out of the other side, they’d likely be short market dogs in the National Championship. I mentioned them at +1100 in this market a few weeks ago, and TSI has them projected to beat Georgia by 5; if that happens, these odds will likely be cut in half, making it advantageous to grab them now if you believe in the TSI-Notre Dame love story. 

Ohio State +330

There were real questions about how the Buckeyes would respond after the Michigan loss, which was undoubtedly the worst loss of the Ryan Day era. Those questions were answered emphatically when Tennessee came to town. The Buckeyes stepped on their throats for the majority of the game before letting four (!) quarterbacks get snaps in the fourth quarter and settled for a 41-17 win. It felt like it could’ve been 60-3. Consistency is the question now for Ohio State, as they’ll get a chance to avenge their October loss to Oregon in Eugene, this time in the Rose Bowl. But if THAT Ohio State team shows up, good luck to anyone trying to get in their way. TSI has them projected as 2-point favorites in the Rose Bowl. If they do dispose of the Ducks — widely considered the best team in college football this year — my guess is they’ll be favored the rest of the way, or perhaps a pick ‘em with Texas and then favored in the National Championship game if they make it. I think you’ve got to buy now on the Bucks because this number likely starts with a “1” after the Rose Bowl if they do what TSI (and the market) indicate they will do. 

Worth Considering: 

Oregon +425

If the Ducks get past Ohio State, the current market is telling us they might be underdogs again in the semis vs. Texas, so I think the better play is to just bet on rolling Oregon money lines, starting in the Rose Bowl. But they’re the #1 seed and have been the most consistent team all year, so I wanted to at least mention them here.

Georgia +550

Carson Beck is out for the CFP, and Gunner Stockton will be under the center for the Dawgs. Can they replicate some of the previous Kirby magic with less-than-elite QB play? I honestly haven’t seen enough Stockton to know the answer, but they’re still Georgia and can suffocate anyone defensively on any given day. It might be worth a flyer to grab them now at +550 because if they do look the part, this number is likely around +275 after the Notre Dame game. Not to mention, a semifinal game against Penn State or Boise State would probably be a sigh of relief for Georgia, given who they’ve played all year and who they play in the Sugar Bowl. 

For more college football playoff analysis, visit the College Football Bowl Game hub exclusively on VSiN.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR