Week 1 College Football Best Bets and Week 2 Projections

Before we head into the weekend of the first full slate of college football of the 2026 season, I wanted to reload the clip with some more bets. If you missed it, I gave out my early-week best bets on Monday (as I will every week), and you can find that article here. But, as is often the case, I have more bets I’ve made throughout the week, so I wanted to share a couple more here on Thursday.

Nebraska (-23.5) vs Ohio, O/U 46.5

The Matt Rhule era has been somewhat underwhelming at Nebraska so far, but they should get off on the right foot with a Week 1 win over the Ohio Bobcats; however, it’s the total I’m interested in here. TSI projects 45 points in this one, and honestly I’m not sure it even gets to that number (which is a key totals number). These teams ranked #134 (NEB) and #82 (OU) in offensive explosiveness last year, and #103 and #113 in plays per second, respectively. These are teams that want to play slow, don’t hit explosives, and run the ball at an average of 55% of the time, meaning the clock is going to keep churning more often than not. Additionally, both teams upgraded at defensive coordinator this year, per the Coach Biggs’ coaching rankings, so I expect this game to be a boring, Big Ten West type of game that Nebraska wins comfortably. 

Bet: Under 46.5 (Play to 45.5)

Penn State (-24.5) vs Marshall, O/U 52.5

It’s the battle of “We Are”s, as the Thundering Herd will travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State in the first game of the Matt Campbell era. Marshall has been a Goliath slayer in this role multiple times over the last few decades, so they are a program that will not be intimidated going into Beaver Stadium. I, for one, have not been the biggest Matt Campbell fan, and he essentially is running Iowa State East at Penn State this season, bringing QB Rocco Becht and a plethora of Cyclones with him from Ames. Marshall QB Carlos Del Rio-Watson should be one of the best QBs in the G6 this year, so the Herd will put a competent scoring threat on the field offensively against a mid-tier Big Ten defense (projected). TSI projects Penn State -23 here, so getting the 24 plus the hook is appealing to me, and I’m never scared to bet Marshall as an underdog (see: 2022 Notre Dame). Looking back at Campbell’s Iowa State the last couple of years, they’ve rarely run the score up on anyone and have played some reasonably competitive games in these types of situations, including an 18-point win against FCS North Dakota and an 8-point win over Arkansas State.

Bet: Marshall +24.5 (Play to +24)

Week 2 Lookahead Projections

DateHomeAwayTSI SpreadTSI Total
9/11/2026Boston CollegeRutgers-2.556.0
9/11/2026KansasMissouri-8.552.0
9/12/2026Air ForceNorth Dakota State-6.057.0
9/12/2026ArmySouth Florida0.555.0
9/12/2026AuburnSouthern Miss33.051.0
9/12/2026Boise StateMemphis7.551.5
9/12/2026BYUArizona7.052.0
9/12/2026ClemsonGeorgia Southern25.051.0
9/12/2026East CarolinaAppalachian State11.052.5
9/12/2026FAUNavy-4.058.5
9/12/2026FIUBuffalo7.550.0
9/12/2026Fresno StateSacramento State18.543.5
9/12/2026GeorgiaWestern Kentucky29.554.0
9/12/2026Georgia TechTennessee-6.557.0
9/12/2026HawaiiNew Mexico State10.549.0
9/12/2026IllinoisDuke9.557.5
9/12/2026IowaIowa State14.046.5
9/12/2026Kansas StateWashington State17.550.5
9/12/2026Kennesaw StateGeorgia State8.555.0
9/12/2026KentuckyAlabama-10.545.0
9/12/2026LSULouisiana Tech32.049.0
9/12/2026MarshallMiddle Tennessee14.058.5
9/12/2026MichiganOklahoma4.047.5
9/12/2026Michigan StateEastern Michigan17.052.5
9/12/2026MinnesotaMississippi State3.551.0
9/12/2026NebraskaBowling Green30.047.0
9/12/2026North TexasUNLV-3.054.0
9/12/2026Notre DameRice46.052.0
9/12/2026OhioJacksonville State-3.049.0
9/12/2026Oklahoma StateOregon-25.053.5
9/12/2026Ole MissCharlotte41.053.5
9/12/2026Oregon StateTexas Tech-32.050.0
9/12/2026PittUCF8.050.5
9/12/2026PurdueWake Forest-1.548.0
9/12/2026Sam HoustonTulsa-7.054.5
9/12/2026SyracuseCalifornia-2.051.5
9/12/2026TemplePenn State-23.556.0
9/12/2026TexasOhio State-0.550.5
9/12/2026Texas A&MArizona State14.551.5
9/12/2026Texas StateUTSA0.065.0
9/12/2026TulaneSouth Alabama11.554.5
9/12/2026U ConnMaryland-8.050.5
9/12/2026UABUL Monroe6.055.0
9/12/2026UCLASan Diego State9.550.5
9/12/2026USCLouisiana28.056.0
9/12/2026UtahArkansas6.559.0
9/12/2026VanderbiltDelaware19.058.0
9/12/2026Virginia TechOld Dominion14.049.0
9/12/2026WashingtonUtah State26.052.5

 

For more Week 1 college football picks and predictions, visit the VSiN Week 1 College Football Hub.

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