The college football season sure seems to be flying by, doesn’t it? We’re already into Week 5 and the calendar has flipped to October. A lot of teams are probably just now settling in after a tremendous amount of turnover in the offseason, so maybe we’ll start to get what we expected out of those who have struggled to this point. On the other hand, maybe that’s just what those teams are and we’ll have to figure that out through the handicapping process.
As always, there are some games I like more than others, whether those selections are from my power ratings or from a more qualitative handicap of the matchup.
Here are my favorite Week 5 college football picks:
Lines from Circa Sports as of 4:00 p.m. PT on September 30
UCF vs. Houston (-11.5, 51) Prediction
Pick: UCF +11.5
It’s an early kick in Houston at 11 a.m. local time here when the Golden Knights visit the Cougars. We’ll see who is ready to go for this brunchtime affair on a Saturday.
Both teams are 3-1 and have played pretty comparable schedules per Jeff Sagarin, with UCF 61st in the nation and Houston 69th in SOS. The Knights will be without former James Madison QB Alonza Barnett III again this week after he hurt his hamstring earlier in September. FIU transfer Keyone Jenkins gets the call again. So far, Jenkins has completed 73.2% of his passes with a 3/1 TD/INT ratio and has a couple of rushing scores. He was excellent last week against TCU, completing 19-of-20 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown.
Houston obviously has the higher ceiling between these two teams, but they have given up over six yards per play in two Power Four games against Texas Tech and Oregon State. The Beavers do have one of the nation’s best passing attacks, so maybe that’s an unfair data point, but the Knights have only allowed 4.7 YPP in their two Power Four games.
The Knights have also found a ton of success on the ground with 13 rushing scores and 5.9 yards per carry. Duke Watson has 8.8 yards per pop after transferring in from Louisville where he was behind Isaac and Keyjuan Brown, so he seems to be a rather untapped resource for Scott Frost in his second Orlando stop.
UCF has the chance to play some keep-away here and may have an underrated defense, which will make it tough for the Cougars to win by 12+.
Memphis (-20.5, 53) vs. Charlotte Prediction
Pick: Memphis -20.5
I think Charles Huff is ready to put a beatdown on somebody. The first-year head coach for the Tigers had an odd start to the season with two long trips away from home – a win at UNLV and a loss at Boise State. Now, Huff has effectively had two bye weeks in a row, as Memphis beat UT-Martin back on 9/19 and then had an actual bye week this past weekend.
With a transfer QB in Marcus Stokes and a lot of new pieces and parts since a lot of his players used their last year of eligibility with him at Southern Miss last season, I’m not surprised that it has taken time for the Tigers to reach maximum efficiency, especially with the travel on alternating weeks. Here, they have a short trip to Charlotte to take on a raging tire fire of a 49ers team.
Charlotte opened some eyes by playing right with App State in a 26-21 loss in Boone, but those positive vibes were short-lived, as the 49ers responded by losing at home to Louisiana by 27 in a game where they mustered just 137 yards of offense. Credit the 49ers for improving a bit on defense this season, but the offense is still among the worst in the nation. They had 7.3 YPP against The Citadel when they lost the season opener. They’ve gained just 4.25 YPP in three games against FBS opposition.
Huff is a damn good football coach and he’s had some time to better understand his personnel and get things moving in the right direction. My line here is Memphis -25.5 and so I think there’s some value on this line and the situation suggests Memphis will improve with a good head coach and extra time to get everything in sync.
Kentucky vs. South Carolina (-3, 53) Prediction
4:15 p.m. ET
Pick: Kentucky +3
The Wildcats and Gamecocks feel like ships passing in opposite directions. South Carolina is in a downward spiral and one that may ultimately cost Shane Beamer his job in the not too distant future. Kentucky, meanwhile, seems invigorated, especially on the offensive side with first-year sideline boss Will Stein.
Kentucky has already secured one impressive road win in SEC play, beating Texas A&M by 10 in College Station. Last week’s slow start against South Alabama eventually became a 24-point win. I would say that the Wildcats have played three bad quarters of football thus far – the second half against Alabama and last week’s second quarter against South Alabama with 21 points allowed. The Gamecocks have played several bad quarters over the last two weeks, giving up 90 points to Mississippi State and Alabama.
Stein has kept up Kentucky’s tradition of running the ball well, but QB Kenny Minchey has an 8/1 TD/INT ratio with a 68.3% completion rate. RBs Jason Patterson (8.2 YPC) and CJ Baxter (5.7 YPC) have combined for eight rushing scores. The teams are actually right next to each other in offensive yards per play, with South Carolina 25th and Kentucky 26th nationally, as both have done worse within SEC play than overall, which is to be expected.
South Carolina’s defense has been shredded, though, allowing 7.5 YPP in conference action. By comparison, Kentucky has allowed 5.2 and there is a common opponent between the two teams. It is my belief that LaNorris Sellers is really regressing in Columbia as well, as he’s already thrown four interceptions, three of them in the SEC games. He had 17 yards per carry against Towson, but has 27 carries for 134 yards in conference action, so his rush numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.
We’ll see if the Gamecocks can take advantage of their great week of practice per Beamer, but Dylan Stewart won’t be out there and you have to wonder what the vibe is like around the program right now. I have this one lined as a virtual pick ‘em.
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