The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 100-77 SU and 109-66-2 ATS (62.3%) dating back to November of 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+6 vs Alabama), SOUTH CAROLINA (-3 vs Kentucky)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 14-0 (100%) to the Over as a home underdog since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARMY-LOUISIANA TECH (spread LA Tech +2.5, o/u at 46.5)

* Big 10 road favorites of -4 or less have gone 27-10 SU and 25-12 ATS (67.6%) in conference play since 2021
System Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-2.5 at Northwestern)

* Over the total is 9-0 in the last nine of the Wolverines-Gophers Big 10 series, going over the total by 9.2 points on average
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MICHIGAN-MINNESOTA (o/u at 43.5)

* Under the total has converted nine straight times when Ohio visits in-state rival Kent State
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OHIO-KENT STATE (o/u at 50.5)

* Over the last thirteen years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 86-63 ATS (57.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA STATE (-4 vs Baylor)

* UTAH STATE is 8-22 SU and 9-21 ATS (30%) in revenge mode (having lost to a team in previous or same season) since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+20.5 at Boise State)

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: ILLINOIS -10 vs Purdue (projections have line at ILL -16.7)

College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB Ranked Team System #1: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 228-118 SU and 198-139-9 ATS (58.8%). 
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+6 vs Alabama), IOWA (+14 vs Ohio State), MISSOURI (+5.5 vs Florida)

CFB Ranked Team System #5: Unranked teams that are favored over ranked teams in Power 4 conference games boast a record of 63-29 SU and 52-36-4 ATS (59.1%) dating back to November 2016.
System Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-3 vs Kentucky)

CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 357-28 SU but just 168-213-4 ATS (44.1%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SMU (-21 vs Boston College), GEORGIA (-24.5 vs Vanderbilt), BOISE STATE (-20.5 vs Utah State)

CFB Ranked Team System #7: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 91-59 Under the total (60.7%) dating back to October 2016.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): AUBURN-TENNESSEE (spread TENN -7, o/u at 54.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a Top 15 ranked team are 125-90 SU but just 94-120-1 ATS (43.9%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016.
System Match (FADE): WISCONSIN (-10 vs Michigan State)

CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top-10-ranked team are just 139-147 SU and 127-157-2 ATS (44.7%) in the next game since October of 2016.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (-7 vs Auburn)

CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 124-30 SU but just 64-86-4 ATS (42.7%) since December of 2015.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (-7 vs Auburn)

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread are on a 229-54 SU and 161-119-3 ATS (57.5%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-24.5 at Rutgers)

CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 65-27 SU and 55-36-1 ATS (60.4%) in the next game since November of 2021.
System Match (PLAY): USC (-9.5 vs Washington)

CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 86-41 SU but just 54-71-2 ATS (43.2%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WISCONSIN (-10 vs Michigan State), WAKE FOREST (-12.5 vs Stanford)

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 73-98 SU and 75-93-3 ATS (44.6%) since September 2019.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+6 vs Alabama), FLORIDA (-5.5 at Missouri), IOWA (+14 vs Ohio State)

*These teams are also 83-45 Under the total (64.8%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI STATE (o/u at 56.5), FLORIDA-MISSOURI (o/u at 56.5), OHIO STATE-IOWA (o/u at 45.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #16: Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 100-77 SU and 109-66-2 ATS (62.3%) dating back to November of 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+6 vs Alabama), SOUTH CAROLINA (-3 vs Kentucky)

These detail top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 87-118 ATS (42.4%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE): MICHIGAN (-5.5 at Minnesota)

* Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 50-77 ATS (39.4%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6.5 vs Akron)

* Big 10 road favorites of -4 or less have gone 27-10 SU and 25-12 ATS (67.6%) in conference play since 2021
System Match (PLAY): PENN ST (-2.5 at Northwestern)

* Under the total is 72-50-1 (59%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PITTSBURGH-VIRGINIA TECH (spread VT -3.5, o/u at 54.5), VIRGINIA-FLORIDA STATE (spread UVA -2.5, o/u at 51.5)

* AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 116-19 SU and 76-53-6 (58.9%) ATS in conference play since 2015
System Match (PLAY): UTSA (-11.5 at Rice)

* Under the total is 56-38-1 (59.6%) in Conference USA expected-tight matchups (-3 to +2.5 line range) since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WESTERN KENTUCKY-NEW MEXICO STATE (spread NMSU -2.5, o/u at 57.5)

* MAC home/neutral underdogs in the +2.5 to +5.5 line range have seen their totals go Under at a 42-23 rate (64.6%) in conference play since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OHIO-KENT STATE (spread KSU +3, o/u at 50.5)

Negative FADE trends:

• USC has lost 17 of its last 23 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): USC (-9.5 vs Washington)

• ILLINOIS is on a 5-15-1 ATS skid as a conference home favorite
Trend Match (FADE): ILLINOIS (-10 vs Purdue)

• HAWAII is just 4-19 ATS in its last 23 conference games when favored by single digits
Trend Match (FADE): HAWAII (-3 vs San Jose State)

• RUTGERS is on a 4-12 ATS skid as a Big Ten home underdog 
Trend Match (FADE): RUTGERS (+24.5 vs Indiana)

• NEBRASKA is just 4-13-2 ATS in its last 19 games as a Big Ten favorite
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-14.5 vs Maryland)

• MEMPHIS is on a 9-21 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
Trend Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-20.5 at Charlotte)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• OLD DOMINION has won 10 of its L14 games ATS as a conference underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): OLD DOMINION (+1.5 at Georgia St)

• WESTERN KENTUCKY is on a 15-3 ATS surge in conference play when coming off a win at home
Trend Match (PLAY): WESTERN KENTUCKY (+2.5 at New Mexico State)

• BOISE STATE takes care of business as a conference favorite of 20+ points, 12-3-2 ATS in its last 17
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE ST (-20.5 vs Utah St)

• EASTERN MICHIGAN is an impressive MAC road underdog, 19-8 ATS in the last 27
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+6.5 at UMass)

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems

Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 111-83 ATS (57.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 at VA Tech), RUTGERS (+24.5 vs Indiana)

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 154-197-1 ATS (43.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (FADE): MARYLAND (+14.5 at Nebraska)

Prolific offensive performances don’t last
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 33-48 ATS (40.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 at Virginia Tech)

Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
Over the course of the last thirteen years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 164-123 ATS (57.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 at VA Tech), RUTGERS (+24.5 vs Indiana)

Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum builders
Over the last thirteen years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 86-63 ATS (57.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA STATE (-4 vs Baylor)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best & worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

Best

* COASTAL CAROLINA is 13-13 SU and 16-10 ATS (61.5%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): COASTAL CAROLINA (+2.5 vs Georgia Southern)

* KENTUCKY is 17-25 SU but 24-18 ATS (57.1%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+2.5 at South Carolina)

Worst

* MARSHALL is 14-10 SU and 10-14 ATS (41.7%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): MARSHALL (+18.5 at James Madison)

* UTAH STATE is 8-22 SU and 9-21 ATS (30%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+20.5 at Boise State)

* CINCINNATI is 11-15 SU and 9-17 ATS (34.6%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+7 at Arizona)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 118-133 ATS (47%) since 2016. 
System Match (FADE): PENN ST (-2.5 at Northwestern)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 233-183 ATS (56%) since 2016. 
System Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO ST (-2.5 vs W Kentucky)

Comparing Effective Yards Per Play Ratings to This Week’s Matchups

The following are taken from an article posted on Monday, September 21, 2026, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, as far as the differential of EYPP ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic. So far in 2026, these plays are 12-3 ATS (80%).

1. (107) PITTSBURGH at (108) VIRGINIA TECH
Actual Home Team Line: VIRGINIA TECH -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: VIRGINIA TECH +16.1
Difference: 19.6, Favors – PITTSBURGH

2. (211) TEXAS STATE UNIV at (212) SAN DIEGO STATE
Actual Home Team Line: SAN DIEGO STATE +4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: SAN DIEGO STATE +23.4
Difference: 18.9, Favors – TEXAS STATE UNIV

3. (205) UTAH STATE at (206) BOISE STATE
Actual Home Team Line: BOISE STATE -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: BOISE STATE -2.4
Difference: 18.1, Favors – UTAH STATE

4. (203) OREGON STATE at (204) COLORADO STATE
Actual Home Team Line: COLORADO STATE +6
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: COLORADO STATE +23.9
Difference: 17.9, Favors – OREGON STATE

5. (129) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (130) MASSACHUSETTS
Actual Home Team Line: MASSACHUSETTS -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: MASSACHUSETTS -21.1
Difference: 14.6, Favors – MASSACHUSETTS

6. (127) KENTUCKY at (128) SOUTH CAROLINA
Actual Home Team Line: SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: SOUTH CAROLINA +12
Difference: 14.5, Favors – KENTUCKY

7. (103) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (104) NEW MEXICO STATE    
Actual Home Team Line: NEW MEXICO STATE -2.5    
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: NEW MEXICO STATE -16.5    
Difference: 14, Favors – NEW MEXICO STATE

8. (119) BOWLING GREEN at (120) MIAMI (OH)
Actual Home Team Line: MIAMI (OH) -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: MIAMI (OH) -27.3
Difference: 13.8, Favors – MIAMI (OH)

9. (105) NORTH TEXAS at (106) TULSA    
Actual Home Team Line: TULSA -1.5    
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: TULSA +11.2    
Difference: 12.7, Favors – NORTH TEXAS

10. (167) PURDUE at (168) ILLINOIS
Actual Home Team Line: ILLINOIS -10
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: ILLINOIS -22.6
Difference: 12.6, Favors – ILLINOIS

11. (197) WEST VIRGINIA at (198) IOWA STATE
Actual Home Team Line: IOWA STATE -3
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: IOWA STATE -15.5
Difference: 12.5, Favors – IOWA STATE

12. (139) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (140) BUFFALO
Actual Home Team Line: BUFFALO +13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: BUFFALO +26
Difference: 12.5, Favors – WESTERN MICHIGAN

13. (169) LA MONROE at (170) SOUTH ALABAMA
Actual Home Team Line: SOUTH ALABAMA -14
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: SOUTH ALABAMA -1.9
Difference: 12.1, Favors – LA MONROE

14. (115) TOLEDO at (116) BALL STATE    
Actual Home Team Line: BALL STATE +19.5    
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: BALL STATE +31.4    
Difference: 11.9, Favors – TOLEDO

15. (173) TEXAS TECH at (174) COLORADO    
Actual Home Team Line: COLORADO +12.5    
Effective Play-by-Play Home Line: COLORADO +0.6    
Difference: 11.9, Favors – COLORADO

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* AIR FORCE is 33-21 (61.1%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): AIR FORCE (-3 vs Navy)

* ARIZONA STATE is 11-2 (84.6%) ATS in the last 13 games as a Favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA STATE (-4 vs Baylor)

* ARKANSAS is 4-17 (19%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2020
* ARKANSAS is 20-13 (60.6%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARKANSAS (+14 at Texas A&M)

* BALL STATE is 42-30-1 (58.3%) Under the total over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOLEDO-BALL STATE (o/u at 52.5)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 30-18 (62.5%) ATS in Conference games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (+21 at SMU)

* BOWLING GREEN is 21-34 (38.2%) ATS as Underdog since 2019
* MIAMI (OH) is on a 43-31-1 (58.1%) UNDER the total run over the last six seasons
Trends Match: FADE BOWLING GREEN (+13.5 at Miami (OH)), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)

* BUFFALO is 24-17-1 (58.5%) ATS at home since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+13.5 vs Western Michigan)

* CALIFORNIA is 32-21 (60.4%) ATS as underdog since 2018
* UNLV is 28-10 (73.7%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2017
* UNLV is on a 24-13 (64.9%) ATS run following a SU win
Trends Match: 1 PLAY CALIFORNIA, 2 PLAYS UNLV (spread UNLV -2.5)

* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 8-15 ATS (34.8%) as a Favorite in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6.5 vs Akron)

* CINCINNATI is 7-18 ATS (28%) as an Underdog since 2021
* CINCINNATI is 11-23 (32.4%) ATS in Conference games since 2022
Trends Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+7 at Arizona)

* CHARLOTTE is 5-22 (18.5%) ATS in the last 27 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+20.5 vs Memphis)

* COLORADO is 12-6 (66.7%) ATS in the last 18 games following a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+12.5 vs Texas Tech)

* EASTERN MICHIGAN is 42-23 (64.6%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+6.5 at UMass)

* FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 9-18 (33.3%) ATS in the last 27 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): FLA ATLANTIC (vs Texas Southern)

* FLORIDA STATE is 13-27-1 (32.5%) ATS in Conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA STATE (+2.5 vs Virginia)

* FRESNO STATE is 42-26-1 (61.8%) Under the total since 2021
* FRESNO STATE is 27-15 (64.3%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (+2.5 at Washington St), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45.5)

* GEORGIA is 14-23 (37.8%) ATS in the last 37 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA (-24.5 vs Vanderbilt)

* GEORGIA STATE is 8-17 (32%) ATS in home games since 2022
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA ST (-1.5 vs Old Dominion)

* HAWAII is 15-28 (34.9%) ATS as a favorite since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): HAWAII (-3 vs San Jose State)

* IOWA STATE is 37-20-1 ATS (64.9%) following up a SU loss since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (-3.5 vs West Virginia)

* INDIANA is 20-10 (66.7%) to the Over on the road since 2020
* RUTGERS is 12-2 (85.7%) to the Over as a home underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): INDIANA-RUTGERS (o/u at 55.5) 

* JAMES MADISON is 33-18 (64.7%) ATS as favorite since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-18.5 vs Marshall)

* KANSAS is 8-20 (28.6%) ATS as favorite since 2018
* KANSAS is 43-30-1 (58.9%) Over the total since 2019
Trends Match: FADE KANSAS (-18.5 vs MTSU), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 49.5)

* OHIO U is 26-15 ATS (63.4%) in Conference games over the last five seasons
* KENT STATE is 15-30 (33.3%) ATS in the last 45 games as an underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): OHIO (-3 at Kent St)

* LA LAFAYETTE is 30-14 (68.2%) to the Under in home games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ARKANSAS ST-LA LAFAYETTE (o/u at 47.5)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 14-0 (100%) to the Over as a home underdog since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARMY-LOUISIANA TECH (o/u at 46.5)

* MICHIGAN is 21-12 (63.6%) ATS in road/neutral games in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-5.5 at Minnesota)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 23-14 (62.2%) ATS at home since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSISSIPPI ST (+6 vs Alabama)

* NC STATE is 9-2 ATS (81.8%) as a home underdog since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): NC STATE (+4 vs Louisville)

* NEBRASKA is 10-18-3 (35.7%) ATS at home in the last 31
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-14.5 vs Maryland)

* NEW MEXICO is 24-45 (34.8%) ATS in Conference games since 2017
* NEW MEXICO is 12-21 (36.4%) ATS as favorite since 2018
* NEW MEXICO is 25-16 (61%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (-22.5 vs UTEP), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* NOTRE DAME is 34-12 ATS (73.9%) in Road/Neutral games in the last seven seasons
* NOTRE DAME is 34-17-1 ATS (66.7%) vs ACC opponents since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-21 at UNC)

* OREGON STATE is 28-15 (65.1%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): OREGON STATE (-6 at Colorado St)

* PENN STATE is 13-23 (36.1%) ATS coming off SU loss since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): PENN STATE (-2.5 at Northwestern)

* PITTSBURGH is 48-31 (60.8%) Over the total since 2020
* VIRGINIA TECH is 10-25 (28.6%) ATS in the last 35 games following up a SU win
* PITTSBURGH is 3-9 ATS (25%) in the last 12 games as a road underdog
Trends Match: 1 FADE PITTSBURGH, 1 FADE VIRGINIA TECH, also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 54.5)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 55-32 (63.2%) Under the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEXAS ST-SAN DIEGO ST (o/u at 59.5)

* SOUTH CAROLINA is 18-12 (60%) ATS as a favorite in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-3 vs Kentucky)

* TEMPLE is 24-13-1 (64.9%) ATS coming off a SU Loss since 2020
* TEMPLE is 10-19 (34.5%) ATS in Road games over the last five seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TEMPLE (+6.5 at South Florida)

* UAB is 2-14-1 ATS (12.5%) following up an outright win and 23-14 (62.2%) ATS at home since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of UAB (vs Samford)

* UTAH STATE is 8-19 ATS (29.6%) in road/neutral games over the last four  seasons
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+20.5 at Boise St)

* USC is 39-19 ATS (67.2%) Over the total in the last four seasons
* WASHINGTON is 3-10 ATS (23.1%) in road/neutral games
Trends Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+9.5 at USC), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 58.5)

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(107) PITTSBURGH at (108) VIRGINIA TECH
* PITTSBURGH is 10-6 SU and 13-3 ATS in the last 16 matchups with Virginia Tech
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 at VA Tech)

(111) PENN STATE at (112) NORTHWESTERN
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of the PSU-NW Big Ten series
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-2.5 at Northwestern)

(117) TEMPLE at (118) SOUTH FLORIDA
* Underdogs are 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the Owls-Bulls set
Trend Match (PLAY): TEMPLE (+6 at USF)

(121) VIRGINIA at (122) FLORIDA STATE
* Under the total has gone a perfect 6-0 in the last six UVA-FSU meetings in Tallahassee
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): VIRGINIA-FLORIDA ST (o/u at 51.5)

(125) OHIO at (126) KENT STATE
* Under the total has converted nine straight times when Ohio visits in-state rival Kent State
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OHIO-KENT STATE (o/u at 50.5)

(127) KENTUCKY at (128) SOUTH CAROLINA
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of Wildcats-Gamecocks series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KENTUCKY-SOUTH CAROLINA (o/u at 53.5)

(135) LOUISVILLE at (136) NC STATE
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the UL-NC State set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LOUISVILLE-NC STATE (o/u at 58.5)

(143) OLD DOMINION at (144) GEORGIA STATE
* Under the total is 4-0 in the last four meetings between ODU and GA ST, going Under by 11.75 points on average
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OLD DOMINION-GEORGIA STATE (o/u at 51.5)

(149) NOTRE DAME at (150) NORTH CAROLINA
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the ND-UNC series since 2006
Trend Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-21 at UNC)

(153) NAVY at (154) AIR FORCE
* Underdogs are 3-6 SU but 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the Midshipmen-Falcons military set
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (+3.5 at Air Force)

(155) UCF at (156) HOUSTON
* Road teams are 5-4 SU and 9-0 ATS in Knights-Cougars set since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY): UCF (+12.5 at Houston)

(157) MICHIGAN at (158) MINNESOTA
* Over the total is 9-0 in the last nine of the Wolverines-Gophers Big 10 series, going over the total by 9.2 points on average
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MICHIGAN-MINNESOTA (o/u at 43.5)

(161) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO at (162) RICE
* UTSA is on runs of 9-1 SU and 6-1 ATS in games versus Rice
Trend Match (PLAY): UTSA (-11.5 at Rice)

(163) AKRON at (164) CENTRAL MICHIGAN
* Home teams are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the Zips-Chippewas MAC set
Trend Match (PLAY): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6.5 vs Akron)

(165) MICHIGAN STATE at (166) WISCONSIN
* Underdogs are 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 Spartans-Badgers meetings
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN STATE (+10 at Wisconsin)

(175) UTEP at (176) NEW MEXICO
* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Miners-Lobos series
Trend Match (PLAY): UTEP (+22.5 at New Mexico)

(181) WASHINGTON at (182) USC
* WASHINGTON is 10-3 ATS versus USC since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at USC)
* Under the total is 9-2-1 in the last 12 of the overall set as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WASHINGTON-USC (o/u at 58.5)

(189) ALABAMA at (190) MISSISSIPPI STATE
* ALABAMA is on a historic 16-0 SU and 8-1 ATS runs in the SEC series with Mississippi State
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-6 at Mississippi State)

(197) WEST VIRGINIA at (198) IOWA STATE
* Favorites are 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 of the WVU-ISU series
Trend Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (-3.5 vs West Virginia)

(205) UTAH STATE at (206) BOISE STATE
* BOISE STATE is on runs of 20-1 SU and 8-1 ATS in the series with Utah State
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-20.5 vs Utah State)

SAN JOSE STATE at HAWAII
* SAN JOSE STATE is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Hawaii
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN JOSE STATE (+3 at Hawaii)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 5:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 626-688 ATS (47.6%). This angle has produced consistently over the last four seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in four straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TULSA, PITTSBURGH, LIBERTY, AIR FORCE, SYRACUSE, ALABAMA, NOTRE DAME, SMU, WAKE FOREST, VANDERBILT, OHIO, FLORIDA, LOUISVILLE, CALIFORNIA, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, GEORGIA STATE, MEMPHIS, JAMES MADISON, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO, ILLINOIS, UTSA, BYU, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, SOUTH ALABAMA, COLORADO, LOUISIANA TECH, LA LAFAYETTE, INDIANA, WASHINGTON STATE, SAN DIEGO STATE, SAN JOSE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 272-290 ATS (48.4%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. Last year it was 6 games over .500. I personally believe that performance will prove to be a fluke. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page >75%, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WAKE FOREST, GEORGIA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, MIAMI (OH), TENNESSEE, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, UMASS, GEORGIA STATE, JAMES MADISON, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO, ILLINOIS, SOUTH ALABAMA, BOISE STATE, LA LAFAYETTE, WASHINGTON STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 388-430 ATS (47.4%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LIBERTY, PENN STATE, SYRACUSE, ALABAMA, NOTRE DAME, TOLEDO, VIRGINIA, OHIO STATE, OHIO, FLORIDA, LOUISVILLE, MEMPHIS, UTSA, BYU, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, INDIANA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 68%+ majority of the handle was on small home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 87-71 ATS (55.1%). Bettors are wisely valuing home field advantage in these games that are expected to be competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TULSA, AIR FORCE, TENNESSEE, UMASS, GEORGIA STATE, WASHINGTON STATE, ARIZONA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 165-148-2 ATS (52.7%). This is a pretty good percentage for a high volume simple based system, and a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, WEST VIRGINIA, MIDDLE TENN STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, VANDERBILT, CALIFORNIA, SAN JOSE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When a majority of 55% or more of the number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past four seasons, this majority group has gone 161-141-1 ATS (53.3%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, WEST VIRGINIA, CALIFORNIA, KENTUCKY, SAN JOSE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their record since the start of 2022 is 298-243 (55.1%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WESTERN KENTUCKY, TULSA, PITTSBURGH, LIBERTY, PENN STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 68-51 (57.1%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PURDUE-ILLINOIS, TEXAS STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 72-59 (55%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NAVY-AIR FORCE, MICHIGAN-MINNESOTA, AKRON-CENTRAL MICHIGAN, BOWLING GREEN-MIAMI (OH), EASTERN MICHIGAN-UMASS, BYU-TCU, MIAMI (FL)-CLEMSON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER have gone 216-183 (54.1%). This also does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of BETS has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MICHIGAN STATE-WISCONSIN, WESTERN MICHIGAN-BUFFALO, OHIO STATE-IOWA, ARMY-LOUISIANA TECH, FRESNO STATE-WASHINGTON STATE

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NAVY +3 (+4.8)
2. NORTH TEXAS +1.5 (+4.6)
3. MICHIGAN STATE +10 (+3.5)
4. EASTERN MICHIGAN +6.5 (+3.0)
5. PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+2.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ILLINOIS -10 (+6.7)
2. ARMY -2.5 (+5.9)
3. SOUTH ALABAMA -14 (+4.9)
4. OHIO -3 (+4.3)
5. JAMES MADISON -18.5 (+4.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTEP +22.5 (+8.4)
2. WYOMING +18.5 (+6.4)
3(tie). PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+4.6)
CINCINNATI +7 (+4.6)
5. NC STATE +4 (+4.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GEORGIA -24.5 (+9.0)
2. MIAMI (FL) -16.5 (+8.5)
3. BOISE STATE -20.5 (+5.6)
4. TENNESSEE -7 (+5.3)
5. NEW MEXICO STATE -2.5 (+4.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NAVY-AIR FORCE OVER 45.5 (+7.0)
2. MEMPHIS-CHARLOTTE OVER 52.5 (+5.0)
3. ARMY-LOUISIANA TECH OVER 46.5 (+4.7)
4. BOWLING GREEN-MIAMI (OH) OVER 42.5 (+4.4)
5. TEXAS STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE OVER 59.5 (+4.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BYU-TCU UNDER 47.5 (-2.7)
2(tie). MIAMI (FL)-CLEMSON UNDER 47.5 (-1.7)
TEXAS TECH-COLORADO UNDER 50.5 (-1.7)
WASHINGTON-USC UNDER 58.5 (-1.7)
5. EASTERN MICHIGAN-UMASS UNDER 48.5 (-1.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MARSHALL +18.5 (+13.1)
2. SAN DIEGO STATE +4.5 (+11.7)
3. BALL STATE +19.5 (+10.9)
4. OLD DOMINION +2.5 (+10.0)
5. MARYLAND +14.5 (+8.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PENN STATE -2.5 (+10.6)
2. ARMY -2.5 (+9.8)
3. TEXAS A&M -14 (+7.9)
4. OHIO -3 (+6.0)
5. SOUTH FLORIDA -6.5 (+5.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NAVY-AIR FORCE OVER 45.5 (+8.8)
2. ARKANSAS STATE-LA LAFAYETTE OVER 47.5 (+7.9)
3. MIAMI (FL)-CLEMSON OVER 47.5 (+6.4)
4. VANDERBILT-GEORGIA OVER 50.5 (+5.1)
5. BAYLOR-ARIZONA STATE OVER 49.5 (+4.7)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OREGON STATE-COLORADO STATE UNDER 62.5 (-7.3)
2. CALIFORNIA-UNLV UNDER 53.5 (-3.6)
3. BOSTON COLLEGE-SMU UNDER 55.5 (-2.6)
4(tie). PURDUE-ILLINOIS UNDER 61.5 (-2.4)
WYOMING-N DAKOTA STATE UNDER 45.5 (-2.4)

SPONSORED

Nick Menken of Doc’s Sports is coming out firing on the gridiron this season, hitting an impressive 75% to start the 2026 football season. Menken is currently 12-4 in his football selections and is coming off a dominant 5-1 football weekend, banking +$1,150 in profit already this season.
Menken’s 2026 Football Season

After going 2-0 on Saturday, Menken carried that momentum into Sunday with a 3-1 NFL performance, capping off another highly profitable weekend. Now, he’s ready to keep the momentum rolling into Week 3 with more opportunities, more firepower, and another full slate of football action. 
Get your free trial with him at docsports.com

Previous articleSouth Point 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots
Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR