Week 5 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 5 college football best bets:
Notre Dame/North Carolina Under 47
The Fighting Irish currently ranks No. 1 in the nation defensively, only allowing 199.3 yards per game. They also rank 2nd in points allowed (8.3 points per game). The Notre Dame stop unit has also amassed 10 sacks in the last two games.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is off its second bye of the season. After all the bad news off the field this summer, the Tar Heels have started 2-1 and could be 3-0 but let the game at Clemson get away after a long lightning delay.
UNC, for its part defensively, is only allowing 13.7 points per game (20th nationally). Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare against a Notre Dame offense that has been a bit pedestrian and ranks in the bottom third nationally for running the ball.
Rain is also expected in the forecast with, you guessed it, potential lightning delays.
Missouri +6 vs. Florida
Florida was one of our Best Bets last week, and they looked like a top-10 team that was potentially undervalued. The Gators passed last week’s test with flying colors as they defeated No. 4 Ole Miss, 52-28, as Jadan Baugh (29-142-3) and Duke Clark (12-126-1) ran all over the Ole Miss defense.
Now the Gators have jumped 13 spots in the polls to No. 8 and take to the road to face No. 25 Missouri, who had Mississippi State on the ropes last week in Starkville before falling 31-24.
The betting public and media that seemed to be disbelievers and cynics of Florida are now all of a sudden on board as the Gators are now -150 to make the College Football Playoff.
Meanwhile, Mizzou has been the “how are they still ranked” team all week. Transfer QB Austin Simmons has been solid, but the Tigers’ running game has struggled a bit without Ahmad Hardy.
Florida has lived on the running game with Georgia Tech transfer QB Aaron Philo not having to do too much. Philo may not be able to do much here with the passing game, as receivers Vernell Brown III, Bailey Stockton, and Eric Singleton Jr. are questionable to play Saturday.
The Missouri rush defense has been solid and only allows right at 100 yards per game. The Tigers will certainly attempt to cheat up into the box and make Philo prove that he can beat them with his arm.
Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz is 10-4-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog.
This looks like a good time to maybe not completely sell off Florida, but at least a few shares of its stock.
Eastern Michigan +6 at Massachusetts
U Mass is 4-0 and has already surpassed its season wins total. The Minutemen are certainly thinking about making their first bowl game as an FBS program. They last played a bowl game in the 1972 Boardwalk Bowl, which was a game reserved for teams in the NCAA College Subdivision (now D-II, D-III).
After going winless in the MAC (and overall) in its first conference season in 2025, U Mass won its first MAC conference game last week at Sacramento State. Now they are in a relatively new (taking out FCS Stonehill and Sacred Heart) role as a home favorite. Eastern Michigan has historically been a good road underdog under Chris Creighton (36-24-1 ATS). The Eagles are also 21-7 ATS as an away underdog in MAC conference games.
EMU has already played a substantially tougher schedule, having to travel to Michigan State and Wisconsin.
The Minutemen are one of FBS’s best stories so far this season, but they have to prove they can cover as favorites over conference opponents.
Maryland +15.5 at Nebraska
If there were official odds on the first FBS Power 4 head coach to be fired, Maryland’s Mike Locksley might be the favorite. After losing to DMV region rival Virginia Tech, Locksley’s Terrapins were beaten 54-3 once again at home by UCLA last weekend as the turtles were jumped on like in a game of Super Mario Bros.
Locksley’s $9 million buyout is considered relatively inexpensive and manageable by modern standards. The question is whether his players have already quit on him.
One thing in Maryland’s favor is actually getting away from home after such a horrible loss. Granted, going to Lincoln to face 4-0 Nebraska will not be easy. However, the Huskers have a massive showdown with the reigning, defending National Champions Indiana next week.
Nebraska beat two middling MAC teams (Ohio, Bowling Green) and FCS North Dakota before winning at Michigan State last week, where they knocked out Spartans starting RB Cam Edwards and made Sparty one-dimensional.
This number opened Nebraska -12.5 and has now gone through 14 to as high as -15.5. This likely gets some buyback over the weekend in what is a difficult spot for Nebraska.
Texas A&M -13.5 vs. Arkansas
The Aggies were defeated at home as 17-point favorites vs. Kentucky two weeks ago and then went to LSU and was dominated by a score of 35-6. LSU outgained Texas A&M 506 to 197.
This week, the Aggies return to Kyle Field to face an Arkansas team that did play its best game of the season last week in beating Tulsa 34-6, although the Golden Hurricane were playing the backup QB.
It looks like the buy at the bottom spot for A&M here. QB Marcel Reed has thrown four INTs in his last three games, but this week he gets to face the SEC’s worst pass defense, and Arkansas is a program that is trying to rebuild in Ryan Silverfield’s first season.
The Aggies should be able to let out some frustration here.
BEST OF THE REST
SMU -21 vs. Boston College
Vanderbilt/Georgia Under 51.5
South Carolina -140 ML vs. Kentucky
TCU +7 -120 vs. BYU
Colorado +13.5 -115 vs. Texas Tech
Cincinnati/Arizona Over 55.5
For more college football Week 5 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 5 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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