Mother Nature is playing some tricks this weekend in college football, as we’re likely to have a tropical storm hit Southern California and a hurricane around the Alabama/Florida border. Obviously those totals have adjusted accordingly, but it’s simply that time of year with more precipitation and stronger breezes in a lot of places. Make sure you are thinking about the weather as you handicap college football moving forward.
Alright, after getting on that soapbox, there is one play for me this week where the weather is a factor. Otherwise, just some sides I like for a variety of reasons.
Here are my favorite Week 6 college football picks:
Lines from Circa Sports as of 5:45 p.m. PT on October 7
Indiana (-7.5, 48.5) vs. Nebraska Prediction
Saturday, Noon ET
Pick: Nebraska +7.5
We are all watching to see how real Nebraska is. Jeff Sagarin has the Cornhuskers up to 18th in his rankings, but they have played the 111th-ranked strength of schedule. But, he has Indiana down at 101, so the Hoosiers, who have had to replace a ton of talent over the last two seasons, haven’t really been tested a ton themselves. They did answer the bell against Northwestern, but won by six points in a game where they were a three-touchdown favorite.
It is going to be very windy in Lincoln on Saturday. Sustained gusts for this early start will be in the 20-25 mph range with gusts reaching the upper 30s in the second half per the National Weather Service forecast as of Wednesday evening. That could bring one of Nebraska’s biggest advantages in this game to the forefront – the legs of Anthony Colandrea.
The former Virginia and UNLV QB has been outstanding for Matt Rhule’s team this season, posting a 13/2 TD/INT ratio with a 65.7% completion rate. But, he’s also added 6.6 yards per carry on 38 attempts. Even though the Hoosiers will be able to use the weather to their advantage by playing the safeties closer to the line and may be able to afford leaving somebody to spy, Colandrea has really emerged as a runner over the last two seasons and also threw for nearly 3,500 yards last season with the Rebels.
Meanwhile, Josh Hoover is not mobile at all. Over 139 rushing attempts, he has amassed eight yards. Sure, he has a 15/0 TD/INT ratio and a 71% completion rate this season, but he also threw 24 interceptions over his final two seasons at TCU and is now leveling up in competition, at least as far as this season is concerned. The Hoosiers have rushed for 6.4 yards per carry as a team, but Hoover has 17 runs for 18 yards.
So, Nebraska will be able to flood the box as well and key in on the running backs, whereas the Hoosiers have to account for Colandrea.
Old Dominion vs. App State (-10, 49.5) Prediction
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
Pick: App State -10
This is similar to the pick I had last week on Memphis against Charlotte. Charles Huff had some time to get his team rounded into form and they went on the road and completely embarrassed the 49ers. This week, the Mountaineers are the team I’m expecting a leap from and they’ll be at home, which adds a little more juice to my stance.
Second-year head coach Dowell Loggains comes in off the bye here, as it sure seems like he’s found a QB in Malachi Singleton. Singleton has a 7/1 TD/INT ratio with a 72.7% completion rate thus far. He’s thrown for 1,206 yards. Last season, between injuries and ineffectiveness, Loggains had to use four different QBs, as AJ Swann and JJ Kohl split the majority of the reps with 222 and 216 pass attempts, respectively. Those guys had completion rates of 58.6% and 61.6%, with Swann posting a poor 10/8 TD/INT ratio. Kohl’s was better at 12/2, but he transferred out.
I realize that the Mountaineers only beat Charlotte by five and East Carolina by three, but I think an early bye week with a lot of roster turnover is helpful, especially for an offensive-minded coach. It doesn’t hurt that Old Dominion ranks 137th in the nation in yards per play with just 4.29, so it will be hard for the Monarchs to keep up if App State is firing.
Defensively, Old Dominion is a little bit better on a per-play basis than App State, but the difference is rather nominal, especially when you consider the huge gap on offense. There is a huge strength of schedule difference between the two teams, as App State has played just the 157th-ranked slate per Sagarin and ODU has played the 68th-ranked schedule, but the Monarchs just had 42 dropped on them by Georgia State, are playing for the sixth straight week, and QB Quinn Henicle isn’t healthy.
Henicle is also a massive drop-off from Colton Joseph, who was one of the nation’s most productive dual-threat QBs last season and subsequently transferred to Wisconsin. Henicle has a 55.9% completion rate this season and 4.3 yards per carry, including a long of 76. App State should be in good shape here.
Kent State vs. Western Michigan (-14, 43) Prediction
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
It has been quite the interesting season for Kent State so far. Life as a low-major is tough in college football. The Golden Flashes lost 57-0 to South Carolina and 59-3 to Ohio State. In their other games, they’ve defeated Wofford and Ball State and just lost a 13-10 heartbreaker to Ohio. They probably deserved a better fate, as they held the Bobcats to just 73 passing yards, 254 yards overall, and 15 first downs, but two missed field goals and a couple of picks were too much to overcome.
I’m not sure what the deal is in Kalamazoo right now, but Western Michigan is off to a bit of a slow start. Things would undoubtedly be viewed in a different light had a second not been put back on the clock in the game against Michigan, but the Broncos have only beaten Rice by a touchdown and Buffalo by a field goal recently. They were also crushed on the smurf turf by Boise’s version of the Broncos.
Kent State has only allowed 3.4 yards per carry in their two games against non-Power Four FBS opponents. We have seen a lot more balance from the Broncos this season than we saw last season, but head coach Tim Lester still wants to run the rock – er, run the Broc – as much as possible. QB Broc Lowry has completed 68.1% of his tosses with a 4/1 TD/INT ratio, but he also has 56 carries for 170 yards. Last season, Lowry had 262 pass attempts and 203 rush attempts, as the Broncos ran the ball 623 times against 305 pass attempts.
I’m sure they’d like to get back to establishing the run here, but Kent State has shown a lot more fight under Mark Carney and has been a more physical football team. It has been a bit of a slow start for QB Dru DeShields, but he’s also shown more as a runner this season with 39 carries for 183 yards after just 36 yards on 61 carries last season. So, that could test the Western Michigan defensive unit in this one.
I could see a lot of runs, inefficient and slow drives, and a bit of defense here, which makes a 14-point head start pretty valuable.
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