Week 6 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 6 College Football Power Ratings

College football seasons can go sideways very quickly for a program. Because it is so easy to transfer (and tamper) nowadays, the start of a bad season will have the sharks circling around a program and may have the players with a foot or both feet out the door. I think there will be some teams that really quit hard for the rest of the season. I also think that the teams showing significant improvement have a really good chance to keep playing at that level.

Of course, I’m sure we all remember our late teens and early 20s and how hard it was to be inside our minds, let alone the minds of classmates and friends. While these players are more grown-up than ever in some respects, it is still hard to fully know the mindset and mentality of the locker room, both on an individual basis and with the team as a whole. It goes back to what I’ve mentioned before – a team will play its best game and its worst game and you won’t necessarily know when that is. So, it could just be an off day. Or it could be a sign of something more damning.

There are so many teams that I’ve just pinballed back and forth from a power ratings standpoint because consistency is hard to find. This week, though, I pretty aggressively upgraded or downgraded teams that have shown me some kind of repeat ability week in and week out. While those situations are still delicate, in that a major injury or something else can throw everything out of whack, I do believe that oddsmakers and originators are starting to display some very strong opinions and it’s important to either keep up with that or feel very strongly about the teams where you know you disagree.

It feels like the season has been going on for so long already, but it is still only Week 6 and we still have lots of conference action. We have lots of strength of schedule mismatches. It’s about quantifying what we can, examining what we can’t, and going forward with the most confident positions possible in a sport that is clearly all over the map nowadays. All we can do is take in the information, go through our processes, and hope to come out ahead.

Week 6 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Notre Dame	92.5	3.5
2	Georgia	92	2.5
3	Ohio State	91.5	3.5
4	Miami (Florida)	91	3
5	Indiana	89	3.5
6	Alabama	88.5	3.5
7	Oregon	88.5	3.5
8	Texas	88	3.5
9	Florida	87.5	2
10	LSU	86	3
11	Mississippi	85	3.5
12	Tennessee	83.5	2.5
13	Utah	81.5	2.5
14	Missouri	81	3.5
15	Nebraska	80.5	2
16	Texas A&M	79	2
17	USC	79	3
18	Auburn	78.5	2
19	Houston	78.5	2
20	Mississippi State	78.5	2
21	Oklahoma	78.5	3
22	Wake Forest	78	2
23	BYU	77.5	3.5
24	Northwestern	77.5	1.5
25	Texas Tech	77.5	3.5
26	Kentucky	76.5	2
27	SMU	75.5	3.5
28	UCLA	75.5	1.5
29	Arizona	74.5	3
30	Iowa	74.5	3.5
31	Michigan	74.5	2.5
32	South Carolina	74.5	2.5
33	Baylor	74	1.5
34	Boise State	74	3.5
35	Florida State	74	2.5
36	Kansas State	74	3
37	Louisville	74	3.5
38	Penn State	74	2.5
39	Wisconsin	74	2
40	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
41	Washington	73.5	3.5
42	Oklahoma State	73	2
43	Virginia	72.5	2
44	Duke	72	2.5
45	Kansas	71	2.5
46	Arizona State	70.5	2
47	Minnesota	70.5	2.5
48	North Carolina	70.5	2
49	North Carolina State	70.5	2.5
50	Pittsburgh	70	2.5
51	TCU	70	2.5
52	Vanderbilt	70	2.5
53	Clemson	69.5	2.5
54	Cincinnati	68	1.5
55	Illinois	68	2.5
56	Memphis	68	2.5
57	Purdue	68	1
58	Iowa State	67.5	2.5
59	West Virginia	67.5	2
60	North Dakota State	67	3.5
61	UCF	67	2
62	New Mexico	66.5	2
63	Georgia Tech	66	2
64	Oregon State	65.5	3.5
65	Syracuse	65.5	2.5
66	James Madison	65	3.5
67	Arkansas	64.5	1.5
68	Maryland	64	2
69	UTSA	64	3.5
70	California	63.5	2
71	Colorado	63.5	2.5
72	Michigan State	63.5	1.5
73	UNLV	63	2.5
74	Stanford	62.5	1.5
75	Air Force	62	2
76	Fresno State	62	2
77	Liberty	62	2.5
78	North Texas	62	2.5
79	Rutgers	61.5	2
80	Toledo	61.5	3.5
81	Boston College	61	2
82	Texas State	60	2
83	Florida Atlantic	59	1.5
84	Navy	59	2.5
85	Army	58.5	2.5
86	East Carolina	58.5	2
87	Connecticut	58	3
88	Georgia State	58	1
89	Jacksonville State	58	3.5
90	Temple	58	2
91	Tulane	58	2.5
92	Utah State	58	3
93	Appalachian State	57.5	2
94	South Florida	57.5	3
95	Tulsa	57.5	1
96	Washington State	57.5	3
97	Western Michigan	57.5	3.5
98	Louisiana-Lafayette	57	2
99	Nevada	56.5	1
100	Colorado State	56	2
101	Florida International	56	2
102	Georgia Southern	56	3.5
103	Louisiana Tech	56	2
104	Troy	56	3
105	South Alabama	55.5	2
106	San Diego State	55	2
107	Arkansas State	54	2.5
108	UAB	54	2.5
109	Delaware	53	1
110	Marshall	53	3.5
111	San Jose State	53	2.5
112	Miami (Ohio)	52.5	3.5
113	Old Dominion	52	1.5
114	Rice	52	3
115	New Mexico State	51.5	2.5
116	Kennesaw State	51	2.5
117	Middle Tennessee	50.5	1.5
118	Sam Houston State	50.5	2
119	Coastal Carolina	50	2
120	Hawai’i	50	3
121	Ohio	49.5	3.5
122	Wyoming	49.5	2
123	Missouri State	48.5	2
124	Central Michigan	47	3
125	Massachusetts	47	1
126	Western Kentucky	46.5	3
127	Eastern Michigan	46	2.5
128	Southern Mississippi	45.5	2
129	Northern Illinois	44.5	1.5
130	Buffalo	44	2
131	Kent State	44	1
132	Bowling Green	42.5	2
133	Charlotte	41.5	1
134	Louisiana-Monroe	40.5	2
135	Akron	40	2
136	UTEP	40	1
137	Ball State	39	3
138	Sacramento State	34.5	2

Week 6 PR Adjustments

Up: New Mexico State +3.5, Liberty +3, Northwestern +3, Toledo +1.5, Bowling Green +3, Florida State +2.5, Georgia +1.5, Wake Forest +3, NC State +3, Georgia State +3.5, James Madison +1.5, North Carolina +2.5, Tennessee +2.5, Minnesota +2, Kansas +1.5, Rice +2.5, Wisconsin +2.5, Purdue +1.5, Boston College +1.5, Alabama +3, Louisiana Tech +2, Missouri +3.5, Iowa State +2.5, Oregon State +3, Utah State +1.5, Temple +1, Houston +1, North Texas +2.5, Baylor +2.5, Southern Miss +1, Fresno State +2

Down: Western Kentucky -2.5, Miami (OH) -5, Pitt -5 (adj + Heintschel inj), Delaware -2.5, Penn State -4, Ball State -1.5, Virginia -3, Vanderbilt -2.5, Ohio -2.5, Kent State -1.5, Louisville -4, Western Michigan -3, Maryland -1.5, Old Dominion -3.5, Michigan -2.5, Middle Tennessee -2.5, UTSA -3.5, Akron -2.5, Michigan State -3.5, Illinois -3, SMU -2.5, Texas Tech -2.5, UTEP -4, USC -3, Iowa -3, Mississippi State -2.5, Army -2, West Virginia -2.5, Colorado State -3, South Florida -2, BYU -2, UCF -2.5, Tulsa -2.5, Hawaii -2.5, Arizona State -1.5, Washington State -2.5, San Diego State -3, Troy -3, Boise State -2.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Georgia State +3.5: I see you, Dell McGee. What a massive year-over-year turnaround for the Panthers thus far.

New Mexico State +3.5: Seems the market and I had a difference of opinion on the Aggies. I have sort of rectified that, but I’m still not too keen on this team.

Missouri +3.5: What a thorough beatdown of Florida. Austin Simmons is a dude and that running game is stellar.

Pitt -5: Mason Heintschel is done for the year, but I also had Pitt rated too high. They got the cover and the outright win against VA Tech, but Hokies -3.5 was a better number than my -0.5.

Penn State -4: Matt Campbell. Buddy. What the hell was that?

Louisville -4: Jeff Brohm is Jeff Brohming all over the place.

UTEP -4: We’re getting close to Sacramento State levels of bad for UTEP. Just a brutal, brutal team.

UTSA -3.5: I always overvalue Jeff Traylor’s team. And a Jeff Brohm is coming soon from Jeff Traylor. Maybe even this week?

Old Dominion -3.5: The drop-off from Colton Joseph to Quinn Henicle is just massive. This is a pretty bad football team all around.

Michigan State -3.5: The Sparty Party is over in East Lansing. Made some money on them in a couple of underdog spots, but it was time to downgrade them.

My Week 6 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
10/6	Southern Miss	Troy	-13.5
10/7	Jacksonville State	Kennesaw State	+4.5
	New Mexico State	FIU	-6.5
10/8	Sam Houston	Liberty	-14
	Missouri State	Western Kentucky	-1
	South Alabama	Arkansas State	-1
	South Florida	UTSA	-10
10/9	Florida State	Louisville	-3.5
	Iowa	Washington	-2.5
	Wyoming	San Jose State	-6
	Washington State	Utah State	-3.5
	Iowa State	BYU	-13.5
10/10	Indiana	Nebraska	+6.5
	South Carolina	Florida	-15
	Sac State	Bowling Green	-10
	Illinois	Michigan State	+3
	Buffalo	Toledo	-21
	Tulane	Army	-3
	Maryland	Ohio State	-31
	North Carolina	Pitt	-2
	USC	Penn State	+2.5
	Central Michigan	Ohio	-6
	Coastal Carolina	Marshall	-6.5
	LSU	Kentucky	+7.5
	Arizona	West Virginia	+5
	Eastern Michigan	Akron	+4
	Wake Forest	NC State	+5
	Syracuse	Virginia	-9
	UConn	Temple	-2
	Old Dominion	App State	-7.5
	Kent State	Western Michigan	-17
	Duke	Georgia Tech	+4
	Minnesota	Purdue	+1.5
	Rice	East Carolina	-8.5
	Miami (OH)	UMass	+4.5
	James Madison	Georgia Southern	+5.5
	UCF	Oklahoma State	-8
	Louisiana	Louisiana Tech	-1
	Ball State	Northwestern	-40
	Texas A&M	Missouri	-5.5
	UAB	Memphis	-16.5
	Nevada	UTEP	+15.5
	Kansas	Utah	-13
	Hawaii	Arizona State	-22.5
	UCLA	Oregon	-16.5
	Virginia Tech	Cal	+8
	Texas	Oklahoma (N – Dallas)	+9.5
	Mississippi	Vanderbilt	+12.5
	Tennessee	Arkansas	+17.5
	Tulsa	Navy	-4
	Georgia	Alabama	PK
	Charlotte	North Texas	-23
	Houston	Kansas State	+1.5
	Stanford	Notre Dame	-33.5
	San Diego State	Oregon State	-14
	North Dakota State	UNLV	+1.5
	Air Force	Northern Illinois	+16
	Boise State	Fresno State	+10

Games to consider:

USC +1.5 (-2.5) vs. Penn State: I know Lincoln Riley is allergic to the Eastern Time Zone, but I think -2.5, which was the DraftKings opener, was the better line.

Marshall -3.5 (-6.5) vs. Coastal Carolina: The Chanticleers strike me as being a really poor football team. But, Marshall might be, too, and I just haven’t paid close enough attention.

Georgia Southern +9.5 (+5.5) vs. James Madison: I really liked GASo coming into the season and bet Over their conference win total. This line feels a little bit rich, even if Sun Belt Billy has the Dukes playing well.

Nevada -9.5 (-15.5) at UTEP: I guess this will be the week when we find out just how bad UTEP is. Nevada was favored at Middle Tennessee and lost earlier this year (-3.5). They haven’t been this big of a road favorite since the 2020 COVID season.

Oregon -11.5 (-16.5) vs. UCLA: I guess I haven’t downgraded Oregon enough or haven’t upgraded UCLA enough. I was really, really impressed with Dylan Raiola taking over for Dante Moore and didn’t actually move Oregon down.

Houston +2.5 (-1.5) at Kansas State: Another wrong team favored spot for me. Kansas State really let me down against Cincinnati and I punished them for it. Let’s see if that was right.

Air Force -10 (-16.5) at Northern Illinois: This is one of my biggest overlays of the week. It’s not ideal for Air Force coming off of Navy, but NIU is really atrocious and hasn’t seen the option much.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.