Another big Saturday is on tap, so there are a lot of games to consider. We’ve seen a lot of inconsistent performances, especially from teams in the big conferences, so it’s important to go back and analyze what has happened before trying to predict what will happen in the future. Some teams have evolved. Some teams have not.
Fortunately, we don’t really have to factor the weather into the handicap this week, as most places should have relatively tame conditions. As we get deeper into the fall, though, keep checking those forecasts because they often affect one team more than another, but certainly affect the play-calling.
Here are my favorite Week 8 college football picks:
For more best bets, check out our VSiN Picks page with top plays from hosts and guests.
Lines from Circa Sports as of 7:30 p.m. PT on October 21
Boise State (-13, 52) vs. Washington State Prediction
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET
Pick: Washington State +13
The Cougars seem to have found something last week and the betting market agrees. We saw one-way money last week on Oregon State in their matchup against Wazzu. This week, initial money hit the board on the Cougs and we haven’t really seen any buyback, at least as of Wednesday night.
Owen Eshelman just might be a dude. The new starting QB for WSU had 289 yards through the air, going 32-of-49 with a couple touchdowns and a pick. He also had 136 yards on just 15 carries, racking up 9.1 yards per pop. Why Kirby Moore stuck with Caden Pinnick as long as he did is a mystery, especially since he’s already taken 21 sacks this season. Eshelman took three in his first start, but he at least has a better chance at escaping the pocket when the offensive line breaks down.
Boise State is off of a bye, so they’ll be healthy and well-rested, another reason why this line coming down a little bit is pretty telling. The Broncos beat Fresno State 38-31 last time out and have won four of their five victories by double digits. However, this is a team that is -0.91 net yards per play according to BCFToys. That number is a little misleading since garbage time is stripped out and the Broncos have had some big leads, but they have allowed lots of plays of 4+ yards and 7+ yards this season, plus they are 133rd in the country in percentage of plays allowed of 10+ yards.
I don’t think Boise State is as strong as their record would suggest and they actually rank 134th in the nation in yards per play allowed with 6.8. Eshelman has breathed life into the Wazzu offense and I think they make this one close, as Moore takes on his brother Kellen’s former team.
Georgia State (-2, 59) vs. Arkansas State Prediction
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
Pick: Georgia State -2
The Panthers finally leveled up this past week and James Madison dealt them a pretty loud and clear reality check. Getting humbled isn’t always a bad thing and maybe Dell McGee’s squad will come out firing here in hopes of erasing the memory of that 49-22 blowout.
Even with that game on the ledger, the Panthers are 34th in net points per drive per BCFToys, as they are 35th on offense with 2.83 and 54th on defense with 2.07. Arkansas State is on the negative side. While they’ve played a better schedule than Georgia State has, the Red Wolves have barely played a top-100 set of opponents and have had some problems scoring points in most of their games.
Georgia State QB Cameran Brown has a 13/5 TD/INT ratio and has only been sacked four times this season. The Panthers have also gotten the ground game going with 5.2 yards per carry. Conversely, Arkansas State QB Trey Owens has been sacked 14 times and the Red Wolves are rushing for just 4.0 yards per pop.
Georgia State’s 19 sacks ranked tied for 10th as of Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Arkansas State has the fewest sacks in the nation with just three. I’d expect the Panthers to stay on schedule from a down and distance standpoint and Arkansas State to have some negative plays to overcome.
Houston vs. Utah (-6.5, 56.5) Prediction
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET
Pick: Houston +6.5
The Utes are having a really nice season and they’ve been able to ease Morgan Scalley into his first year as the head coach. But, playtime is over. Utah’s strength of schedule ranks 73rd per Jeff Sagarin and they’ll take on a Houston team that has played the 36th-ranked slate of opponents thus far.
With a tough schedule, Houston is 19th in net points per drive per BCFToys, while Utah sits seventh. The Cougars actually have more offensive points per drive. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as strong, but they’ve also played an extremely potent Oregon State crew and faced off against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in conference play. Utah’s three Big 12 opponents have a combined conference record of 1-8. Houston’s four have a record of 7-5.
While Utah has a big edge in yards per play allowed for the season, it should be noted that the Utes have allowed 5.92 YPP in Big 12 games and have allowed nearly seven yards per play in their last two games. Houston’s defense has struggled against Big 12 opponents as well, but with a much tougher schedule in those matchups.
Houston also leads the nation in third-down conversion rate at an absurd 61.4% clip. Utah is also very good in that department and a top-15 defense, but, again, we’re talking about a pretty big gap in level of competition. I’ll take my chances with Houston getting almost a TD + PAT here.
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