College Football Picks:

Week 12 has been all about College Football Playoff ranking discourse, but we’re finally getting to the Saturday games and the action on the field, as opposed to all the conjecture and disagreements about the placement of teams. In the end, what happens between the lines should settle all of the debates and we still have three weeks of the regular season left plus conference championship games before we get to bowl season.

Like I talked about in this week’s College Football Playoff Ratings update, we’re at the time of the year where we venture deeper into the unknown because it is hard to play psychologist and psychiatrist with college student-athletes based on where their teams are and what opportunities are present in the NIL market after the season. I’m being more judicious than usual with my CFB wagers and that likely means scaling back the volume.

 

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Here are my Week 12 College Football Picks:

Florida Atlantic Owls at Temple Owls (-2.5, 51)

2:00 p.m. ET

Well, the Owls are guaranteed to win on Saturday in Philadelphia, but which ones? My money is on Temple and so is a lot of money in the market. As of Wednesday, this line hadn’t hit -3 just yet, but it was trending that way.

FAU parted ways with OL coach Ed Warinner, who was at Ohio State with current FAU head coach Tom Herman. They also got rid of DC Roc Bellantoni. Herman acknowledged that the players weren’t super happy with the decisions. Given that position coaches and coordinators are usually the ones really doing the recruiting, we’re setting up for a big exit from Boca. Herman is potentially on his way out as well.

Temple doesn’t get many chances to win or many opportunities as a favorite. Neither team has bowl aspirations with two wins and three games to play, but this is a rare spot for Temple. They were -2.5 against Tulsa earlier this season and won. They were favored over Akron last year and won, but failed to cover. They were favored twice in 2022 and won both games. They are 4-1 ATS in the last five as a favorite and 8-0 SU in that role, so the betting market has mostly been right when Temple is laying points.

I think the market is right here, too. FAU could get a lift from new QB Kasen Weisman with Cam Fancher out for the season, but I’m not so sure anything could lift this team up right now.

Pick: Temple -2.5

Oregon State Beavers (-3.5, 44.5) at Air Force Falcons

3:30 p.m. ET

Oregon State heads to Colorado Springs needing wins in two of the last three games to make a bowl game. Unfortunately, the next two games are against Washington State and Boise State. Perhaps the Beavers can hold serve here as a favorite and then pull an upset, but I don’t know what kind of headspace this team is in.

There was a pretty big exodus when Jonathan Smith went to Michigan State. Nothing against defensive coordinator Trent Bray, but with no conference and no certainty, the Beavers went with a safe pick in hopes of keeping as many players as possible. With the DC as the HC, Oregon State ranks 129th in yards per carry allowed going into the game against Air Force’s triple-option offense.

The Beavers moved the ball up and down on San Jose State last week and scored 13 points. They scored seven points against Cal. They’ve lost four straight and won’t join the new Pac-12 until 2026. I have to think a lot of players are partially out the door and the ones that aren’t are probably pretty beaten up by this point, as transfers leave a void on the depth chart.

A service academy won’t quit. In fact, Air Force beat Fresno State last week to snap a miserable seven-game losing streak. Sophomore Quentin Hayes has provided a spark at QB. While his yards per carry average is not great in the last four games, he’s been a bit better at running the offense. Air Force had 80 carries for 344 yards last week against Fresno State and held the Bulldogs to just 38 offensive plays.

Of course, Fresno State had 28 points with those limited plays. Oregon State hasn’t been converting well in the scoring areas, but they’re moving the ball. I think the offense is still plenty invested. The defense maybe not so much against a triple-option with all the cut blocking and physicality.

I’m not sure Oregon State will be gap-responsible or pay enough attention in film study. But, I think the offense will move the ball on a terrible Air Force defense.

Pick: Over 44.5

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