College Football Picks:

Another round of Saturday college football clashes is upon us. There are some big games on the betting board, but those won’t always be the best ones to bet on. They could be and I don’t discriminate when it comes to the games that grab my attention. I’m just looking to use all the stats and data to find what stands out the most to me and it just so happens that those are usually games off the beaten path.

That isn’t the case this week, as some Power Four plays made my card.

 

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Here are my Week 8 College Football Picks:

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5, 50.5)

Noon ET (FOX)

The Big Noon Kickoff features Nebraska and Indiana and this is a “prove it” game for the Hoosiers. Indiana is off to a stellar 6-0 start under Curt Cignetti and they’ll go bowling, but they’ve played the 114th-ranked strength of schedule per Jeff Sagarin. The only other Power Four team in that range is Missouri at 111 and money is pouring in against them this week against a pretty mid Auburn team.

The Blackshirts defense ranks sixth in the nation in yards per play allowed. Indiana is seventh. It is worth mentioning that the Cornhuskers have played a SOS in the low 90s, so it’s not like they’ve faced a gauntlet of opponents, but it’s been better and certainly better in conference play.

I’ve raised Indiana significantly in my power ratings this season and still only have this one up to 5.5. Maybe the Hoosiers are totally legit and I’ll give them another bump if they are, but they’ve yet to beat a team on track to a bowl game because they haven’t played one yet.

Pick: Nebraska +6.5

South Carolina Gamecocks at Oklahoma Sooners (-1.5, 41)

12:45 p.m. ET

The Gamecocks and Sooners are conference rivals now, which is still an outrageous thing to type in my mind. These are two offensively-challenged teams to say the least, at the total implies. Oklahoma comes in 128th in the nation in yards per play and South Carolina is 104th. In conference action, specifically, Oklahoma only has 4.1 yards per play. These two teams also rank in the top 25 in pressuring the QB and in turning that pressure into sacks.

Both teams have 19 sacks in six games so far this season. Collectively, these teams have allowed 46 sacks and the Gamecocks lead the nation with 26 sacks allowed. Both teams rank in the top 20 in yards per carry allowed, with Oklahoma at 3.07 and SC at 3.11. Oklahoma is 131st in the nation in third down conversion rate at 26.8% and South Carolina is 119th at 33.3%.

If the script flips and these teams find some offense, or we get the patented “Beamer Ball” special teams play, so be it, but these defenses are dramatically ahead of the offenses this season. Brent Venables at least has that part right in Norman. I don’t really think much of what we’ve seen from LaNorris Sellers thus far for SC, as Beamer, an offensive-minded guy, hasn’t found much success on that front.

A modest breeze could be a bit of a factor. I’d love it if it gusts a little more, but I don’t think it matters. Defense should win the day and win the line of scrimmage for both sides here.

Pick: Under 41

Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6.5, 55.5)

4 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Texas Tech has a good shot at getting ranked with a win over Baylor, as the Red Raiders would be off to a 4-0 start in Big 12 play and a 6-1 start overall, with their lone loss coming against Washington State in a game where they racked up 491 yards, but committed four turnovers and were -3 in that department.

The Red Raiders are going in the right direction as a program. Head coach Joey McGuire was brought in to be the face and the “closer” of the program, as his reputation as an elite recruiter, particularly in the state of Texas, was a huge draw for the AD. Zach Kittley is doing good work as the OC and Tim DeRuyter is a high-quality DC.

The Red Raiders have slack off a bit on offense in league play with 5.57 yards per play, but Baylor has only mustered 4.79 yards per play. On the whole, the Bears only have 5.5 yards per play, so they’ve had a really hard time moving the ball this season. They’ve dropped all four Big 12 games and have only beaten FCS Tarleton State and a really bad Air Force team.

Texas Tech hasn’t played the caliber of conference schedule, so I’ll give Baylor that, but I think the bye week is a huge deal here. The Red Raiders have the better coaching staff. They don’t have a dead man walking at head coach. They’ve got the better QB. The better running game. The better team and I think we see it here in Lubbock. I have this one lined at 10 in my College Football Power Ratings.

Pick: Texas Tech -6.5

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