College football as we know it has been changing on an annual basis, but it will change in a big way in 2024. The College Football Playoff expands from four teams to 12 teams, so that will give more teams a chance at winning a Championship. That also means that the odds to win it all will be a little bit different compared to what we’ve seen in the CFP era.
The Michigan Wolverines took down the Championship this season and are among the favorites to run it back next season, but they’ll have a lot of losses to the NFL Draft and graduation. Head coach Jim Harbaugh could also be back in the NFL as well. It seems unlikely that we’ll have a repeat champ, but the Maize & Blue are getting a lot of respect, along with many of college football’s usual suspects.
ODDS TO WIN THE 2024-25 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
- Georgia +450
- Alabama +600
- Ohio State +800
- Texas +900
- Michigan +1000
- Oregon +1100
- LSU +1400
- Ole Miss +1600
- Florida State +1800
- Clemson +2000
- Penn State +2000
- Notre Dame +2500
- USC +3000
- Oklahoma +3500
- Texas A&M +4000
- Tennessee +4500
- Washington +5000
- Utah +5000
- Missouri +6000
- Miami (FL) +6000
- Arizona +7000
- Kansas State +7000
- Wisconsin +10000
- Auburn +10000
- Louisville +10000
- Florida +15000
- Texas Tech +15000
- TCU +15000
- Oklahoma State +15000
- North Carolina State +15000
- North Carolina +15000
- Kansas +15000
- Colorado +20000
- UCLA +20000
- UCF +20000
- SMU +20000
- Nebraska +20000
- Iowa State +20000
- Iowa +20000
- All others +30000 or higher
College Football Playoff Format
Before betting into any futures odds, it is important to know the playoff format that will be in effect for the upcoming season. The top four teams get byes, so it will be 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9 in the first round of the playoff. So, it is still a big advantage to be one of the top four teams in the nation. Teams that would classify as “long shots” will likely have to win three games in a row against some of the best competition in the nation.
The playoff is currently constructed to feature the “six highest-rated conference champions”, but a vote will soon take place to cut that number down to five since the Pac-12 is no longer a thing. It is very likely that the teams with the byes will be the winners of the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC, and quite possibly in that order, with Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC, Washington, Oregon, UCLA, and USC joining the Big Ten, and Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State joining the Big 12. Cal, Stanford, and SMU are joining the ACC, hence the lower line than expected for SMU.
Early bets to consider
There will still be a lot of moving parts throughout spring practices and we’ve seen a lot of movement with the transfer portal and NIL to this point. A lot of the heavy hitters from this past season are losing a lot of guys to the NFL Draft and some have lost depth to the portal.
But, I still think there are a few teams worthy of being on the radar.
Missouri +6000: Missouri does have to go to Alabama and Texas A&M, but the Tigers avoid Georgia, as the SEC will eliminate divisions. They’ll also avoid LSU and play Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State among their conference foes. The non-conference schedule is very weak for Eli Drinkwitz’s team and they brought in some high-upside talent in the portal. It isn’t a big ask for this team to be among the top 12 in the nation and get invited to the tournament.
Clemson +2000: I do feel like Dabo Swinney lost some zip on his fastball this past season and I’m not sure that Cade Klubnik is a dude, but Florida State is losing a ton from this year’s undefeated (at least until punting on the Orange Bowl) squad, including QB Jordan Travis. Keon Coleman and Jared Verse are impact players on each side of the ball that are hard to replace. The rest of the conference isn’t very good, as North Carolina will lose a top-10 pick in Drake Maye and Louisville’s success was highly scrutinized based on their late-season results. The newcomers to the conference aren’t nearly as daunting as the newcomers to the other major conferences.
Arizona +7000: Maybe I’m drinking too much of the Noah Fifita Kool-Aid here, but the Big 12 loses Oklahoma and Texas, which opens the door for a lot of possibilities in the conference. Arizona heads to a new conference with a lot of momentum and Tucson is a tough place to play, especially when you factor in a little bit of elevation. Kansas State (+7000) isn’t a bad option either in what should be a very wide-open conference that could be viewed favorably by the rankings from a seeding standpoint. Even if a bye doesn’t come, the winner of the Big 12 could get one of the Group of Five programs in that first-round matchup.
