College Football Playoff First Round Best Bets from Matt Youmans:

It’s obvious the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is flawed, but it’s also the best playoff format in the history of the sport and what we are about to witness is sure to be sensational. The four home fields in the first round — Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State — are iconic venues, and it will be cold and possibly snowing for three of the games. The bracket includes several traditional powerhouse teams and a few Cinderella stories. One of the top five books I have read is Friday Night Lights, a story written by H.G. Bissinger, who followed the 1988 Permian High School football team from Odessa, Texas. Friday nights are special in the fall and winter, but they are not all about high school football anymore. The college playoff kicks off tonight in South Bend, Indiana, where I attended many games during my pre-Las Vegas life, and that sets the stage for my College Football Playoff first round best bets this weekend:

 

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Indiana at Notre Dame (-7)

The Hoosiers, Big Ten football doormats for decades, being in the hunt for a national championship seems to be something fit for a fictional movie script. But Curt Cignetti is the real deal, a miracle worker of a coach who showed up in Bloomington and turned a bad team into an 11-1 contender overnight. Of course, Indiana has been helped by a soft schedule and its best win was an ugly 20-15 decision against unranked Michigan on Nov. 9. That win looked a lot better after the Wolverines, as three-touchdown road underdogs, stunned Ohio State. The bottom line is the Hoosiers whipped all the teams they were supposed to beat yet struggled when stepping up in class. This is another step up, as Notre Dame has won 10 consecutive games by an average margin of 30.7 points.

This battle will be waged mostly on the ground, especially if wintry weather is a factor. Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard is a running threat when he escapes the pocket, and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price can hit for explosive plays and wear down defenses. Indiana actually boasts the strongest defense the Irish will have faced. The Hoosiers rank No. 1 in the nation in run defense (70.8 yards per game) and No. 6 in scoring (14.7 ppg). On the flip side, Indiana’s offense was limited to 153 yards against Ohio State and 246 yards against Michigan while averaging 17.5 points in those games. The pressure is on Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke to move the ball through the air, something he was unable to do in the loss to the Buckeyes, because big plays on the ground will be hard to find against a Notre Dame defense allowing 13.6 ppg.

In a high-stakes game featuring dominant defenses, expect Indiana and Notre Dame to each use rather conservative offensive game plans. The coaches don’t want their quarterback to make a big mistake in a game which could turn on a turnover. The Hoosiers reflect Cignetti’s confidence and won’t be in awe of the big stage. Notre Dame should win the game on the strength of Leonard and Love on the ground, but the Irish will be forced to grind it out. I bet Indiana +7.5 — the line has dipped in a show of respect for the ‘dog — and firmly believe Cignetti is not going down without a good fight.

College Football Playoff First Round Best Bets: Indiana +7 and Under 52

Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5)

It could be a mistake to dwell on the Buckeyes’ biggest disappointment, a 13-10 loss to Michigan on Nov. 30. In that upset, Ohio State coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly fell into the Wolverines’ trap by attempting to run the ball between the tackles way too much and not using their big-play wideouts nearly enough. The Buckeyes ran the ball 26 times for only 77 yards, and quarterback Will Howard threw two costly interceptions. Ohio State is unlikely to repeat that lame game plan, especially against a Tennessee defense that is tough up front and poses problems for the Buckeyes’ banged-up offensive line. Howard needs to play much better and he’s a capable veteran who will get the ball to receivers Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith in space for big plays. Ohio State has a surplus of weapons, including running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, and paid a steep price for not utilizing them against Michigan.

The Tennessee defense has allowed more than 20 points in only two games this season. The Volunteers also feature a stud running back, Dylan Sampson, who can do damage. The wild card is quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who takes too many sacks and is erratic with his vertical throws. It’s concerning that in road games against Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia, Iamaleava averaged 173 passing yards and the Vols averaged 18.7 points.

The total of 46.5 is the lowest of the four first-round games, and the Under makes sense in a game likely to be controlled by the defenses. It’s not going to be surprising if Ohio State’s offense shakes off the Michigan mess and operates at a much higher level. However, Tennessee’s defensive front is a monster that makes this an uneasy matchup for the Buckeyes. Sportsbooks are showing lopsided action on the Volunteers, but the line has not budged from 7.5, and it’s always scary to be on the side of a public underdog. All things considered, I’ll hedge my bet (and shoot for a middle) by taking the points while also putting Ohio State -280 on a moneyline parlay.

College Football Playoff First Round Best Bets: Tennessee +7.5 and a three-team moneyline parlay with Ohio State, Penn State and Texas (+115)

Season record: 37-37-2 against the spread

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