College Football Playoff:

If former Alabama coach Nick Saban were the commissioner of college football, you can bet the Crimson Tide would be in the 12-team playoff bracket. But as a TV analyst, Saban is relegated to being a lobbyist and a whiner whose opinions mean nothing to the playoff committee.

Saban is not alone, of course, and he might not be wrong to cry about Alabama’s exclusion. The first year of the expanded College Football Playoff has triggered countless cries from critics who are pointing out flaws in how the teams were selected and seeded.

 

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“Are these the 12 best teams in the nation? I don’t think so,” DraftKings sportsbook director John Avello said. “I like the 12-team format, but it should be constructed in a different way.”

Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State are the top four teams in the bracket due to conference championship status and are awarded byes into the quarterfinal round. In the most controversial first-round matchup, 11th-seeded SMU is at No. 6 seed Penn State on Dec. 21.

“It will never be done, but if you want an honest assessment of the committee rankings, throw a pro handicapper in the room to react and give feedback,” Fox Sports analyst Chris Fallica said.

Or throw an oddsmaker such as Avello in the room to illustrate the difference between the Crimson Tide, who went 9-3 with wins against Georgia and two other ranked opponents, and the Mustangs, who are 11-2 and lost to Clemson in the ACC title game.

“The committee only had one decision to make at the end: Is it Alabama or SMU?” Avello said. “On a neutral field, Alabama would be favored by at least a touchdown over SMU. If they expanded this to 16 teams, you would have Alabama, Miami, Mississippi and South Carolina, and all four of those teams would be favored over Boise State. The best four teams need to get the four byes.”

The SMU-Penn State winner advances to face Boise State, which beat UNLV in the Mountain West title game, in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve. The Nittany Lions are 8.5-point home favorites over the Mustangs.

The Southeastern Conference got three teams in the playoff field when the league expected four. The weaker ACC got two teams, including Clemson, which is an 11-point underdog at Texas in the first round.

“I thought SMU getting in over Alabama was the right call, but I don’t think it was clear cut,” said Circa Sports oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich, who would make the Crimson Tide only 2-point favorites over the Mustangs on a neutral field.

“I don’t think Boise deserved a bye. I wish there were eight or 16 teams and no byes. I don’t like byes, and I don’t understand that. But (the playoffs) will be big. This is good for college football, no doubt about that. It will turn into a version of March Madness, and people will take to this like ducks to water.”

Speaking of the Ducks, Bogdanovich said Oregon is the only team Circa is in jeopardy of losing on in futures wagering. The book took a big bet early this season on Oregon +850 to win the championship.

The top-seeded Ducks are currently +340 favorites at Circa, followed on the futures board by Texas (+385), Ohio State (+500), Georgia (+525), Penn State (+600), Notre Dame (10-1), Tennessee (35-1), Arizona State (40-1) and four teams — Boise State, Clemson, Indiana and SMU — each at 50-1.

Notre Dame has attracted strong wagering support in recent weeks. The Fighting Irish are 7.5-point home favorites against Indiana in a standalone game on Friday, Dec. 20, the opening night of the playoffs. If the Irish win, they would advance to face Georgia, which could be without injured starting quarterback Carson Beck, in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day.

Arguably the most intriguing first-round matchup is Tennessee at Ohio State, which is favored by 7.5 points on Dec. 21. The Buckeyes, looking to bounce back from a stunning loss to Michigan, could advance to face Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

The Ducks were 3.5-point home ‘dogs in a 32-31 win over the Buckeyes on Oct. 12. Led by sixth-year quarterback Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (13-0) beat Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten title game, but the Ducks were not rewarded accordingly by the selection committee.

“Oregon actually got the toughest path,” Avello said. “I think it’s an easier path for Penn State.”

Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt went to social media to claim Oregon “got absolutely screwed by the playoff committee.” The Ducks could face a road that includes Ohio State in Pasadena, Texas in the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas, and Georgia in Atlanta for the title game.

Fallica also was outspoken in his criticism of the committee’s bracket, pointing first to Oregon’s difficult draw.

“The biggest issue I have is the seeding in the top half of that bracket,” Fallica said. “You’ve got three of what I think are the best four teams in the country — Oregon, Texas and Ohio State — on that top half of the bracket. Ohio State has to beat Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and, assuming seeds hold, Georgia to win the national title. Good luck.

“Three of the seven at-large bids went to teams — Indiana, Texas and SMU — that do not have a win over a ranked opponent. But they have 11 wins, and you know why they have 11 wins? Because they didn’t play anybody or beat anybody good. That’s just a hard thing for me to get past. I think it’s pretty obvious SMU should be the 12 seed, and then you would get a very attractive 12-5 matchup with Texas.”

Fallica said he has not bet any sides yet, but he did bet two totals in first-round games: Tennessee-Ohio State Under 47.5, and Indiana-Notre Dame Under 51.

The remainder of the bowl season will be chaotic and filled with uncertainty as the transfer portal fills up and some star players opt out of non-playoff bowls. Several aspects of the bowl season will be a challenge for handicappers and a headache for bookmakers, but the betting action will be fast and furious.

The time for complaining about flaws in the bracket has passed. The time for betting is here, and bookmakers are anticipating NFL-sized wagering handles on the college playoffs, which extend to the national title game on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.

“Tennessee-Ohio State will be a big betting game,” Avello said. “All of these games will be good for betting.”

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