College Football Ranked Team Betting Systems:
Readers of the VSiN College Football Analytics Reports each week are probably well familiar by now with the betting systems we track for games where a pair of ranked teams collide. Those involving the success of home teams in such matchups have really taken off lately, thanks in large part to Bill Adee’s publicizing of them in recent morning newsletters. The angles that I particularly love are those that involve a three-part sequence of home teams in ranked games that go deeper into which team is ranked higher, and what the line is for the game. These have been wildly successful for me as a bettor and in sharing my best bets each week.
That said, I have felt recently that there has been a huge void in the way I look at games involving ranked teams, most notably in that I don’t have any solid angles for looking at ranked vs. non-ranked, or how teams fare in a follow-up game to having played a ranked team, or if teams might suffer from looking ahead when they have a ranked opponent on deck, etc. These are all things I have theorized in my mind, but like any numbers guy, I rely wholeheartedly on data to validate my convictions. Well, with that in mind, I set out to study the last decade or so of college football ranked teams, and I have come up with 12 new systems that have developed in recent years that we will be adding to our weekly reports. In this article, I will introduce the systems and share my thoughts on why they have a solid foundation.
If you haven’t become an avid follower of the VSiN College Football Analytics Reports, I strongly endorse and recommend them. Systems like these ranked team angles are just a fraction of what VSiN Pro Subscribers gain access to, and each part of them is hand-built and approved by me and the rest of the analytics team. Enjoy these new angles and look for them in upcoming Analytics Reports, starting this week!
CFB Ranked Team System #1: Unranked teams that favored over ranked teams in Power 4 conference games boast a record of 62-28 SU & 51-35-4 ATS (59.3%) dating back to November ’16.
Steve’s thoughts: This is a classic “what do the experts behind the counter know?” scenario. Perhaps the unranked team is extra-motivated by the chance to take down a ranked team that they might believe they are better than. Maybe the ranked team shouldn’t be. In any case, athletes tend to thrive on how much respect or lack thereof they are receiving, and that little number next to a team signifying how good they might (or might not) be can be a big motivator.
Qualifying plays for Week 10: NONE – this system won this past Saturday with Washington upending previously ranked Illinois
CFB Ranked Team System #2: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 337-26 SU but just 158-201-4 ATS (44%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015.
Steve’s thoughts: There is a certain level separation point between conference rivals that bettors should be aware of. It would seem to be right around the 14-point mark. Even at home, ranked teams expecting to win by more than two touchdowns against a lesser-talented but perhaps very motivated underdog should expect a competitive effort. Remember, these underdog teams are seeking the same respect the ranked team is now getting.
Qualifying plays for Week 10: AGAINST MICHIGAN ATS (-21 vs. Purdue), AGAINST OHIO STATE ATS (-20.5 vs. Penn State), & potentially against Houston ATS (-14 vs. West Virginia as of Monday)
CFB Ranked Team System #3: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 85-55 Under the total (60.7%) dating back to October 2016.
Steve’s thoughts: With the point spreads in these games set up to where they are expected to be tight contests, these teams likely strategize to play a little more conservatively than usual, thus turnovers or other big mistakes can usually swing these types of games dramatically. On totals averaging 55.1, these games are producing a little over 52 PPG, giving about a FG cushion when it comes to the totals results. Don’t expect these games to break out into shootouts, as in most cases, the unranked road team can’t afford to play that way.
Qualifying plays for Week 10: NONE – this system also won this past Saturday with Baylor and Cincinnati going Under a 68.5 total in a 41-20 decision
CFB Ranked Team System #4: Teams coming off an upset win over a Top 15-ranked team are 113-84 SU but just 82-114-1 ATS (41.8%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016.
Steve’s thoughts: Classic letdown angle here, as the team may be still celebrating from the previous game’s huge outcome, or is perhaps overrated a bit now by oddsmakers. The team still proves its worth in winning the game most often, but bettors should not count on as inspired an effort the next time out, especially where the point spread is concerned. This came up twice last weekend, and neither Louisville nor Arizona State covered the Vegas number in their respective games.
Qualifying plays for Week 10: AGAINST OLE MISS (-12.5 vs. South Carolina)
CFB Ranked Team System #5: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top 10-ranked team are just 132-139 SU and 119-150-2 ATS (44.2%) in the next game since October of 2016.
Steve’s thoughts: This is a letdown of a different sort, in that the team playing at home had the chance to score a tremendous program-building win on its home field, only to come up short. In many cases, the stakes of the next contest can’t muster up the same intensity, thus leading to a lesser effort.
Qualifying plays for Week 10/11: AGAINST SOUTH CAROLINA (+12.5 vs. Ole Miss), AGAINST OKLAHOMA (+3.5 at Tennessee), AGAINST LSU (11/8 at Alabama)
CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 114-29 SU but just 58-81-4 ATS (41.7%) since December of 2015.
Steve’s thoughts: Losses, particularly close ones, can have a big impact on the confidence and mindset of teams, especially those that are ranked and never expect to lose. Judging by the ATS record on this system, their reaction to those close losses shouldn’t really instill confidence in bettors to back them again, especially since the next opponent is unranked and won’t really spike to motivation.
Qualifying plays for Week 10/11: AGAINST SOUTH FLORIDA (11/6 vs. UTSA)
CFB Ranked Team System #7: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 212-51 SU and 150-111-2 ATS (57.5%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
Steve’s thoughts: In the NCAA tournament each spring, one of the main mantras is “survive and advance.” This is a similar situation where a good team gets tested but survives with a win and some coachable moments. You can usually expect a better effort the next time out, assuming they are “supposed to win.”
Qualifying plays for Week 10/11: VIRGINIA (-3.5 at California), TEXAS (-1.5 vs. Vanderbilt), ALABAMA (11/8 vs. LSU)
CFB Ranked Team System #8: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 58-22 SU and 51-28-1 ATS (64.6%) in the next game since November of 2021.
Steve’s thoughts: Coming off a double-digit loss and still ranked, you’d have to assume this is a high-quality team in the eyes of the experts. As such, you shouldn’t expect them to stay down long after being knocked around.
Qualifying plays for Week 10: USC (-7 at Nebraska)
CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 78-38 SU but just 49-65-2 ATS (43%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of 2015.
Steve’s thoughts: Coming off a double-digit loss and still ranked, you’d have to assume this is a high-quality team in the eyes of the experts. As such, you shouldn’t expect them to stay down long after being knocked around.
Qualifying plays for Week 10/11: WASHINGTON (11/8 at Wisconsin)
CFB Ranked Team System #10: Teams still ranked even after losing as 7-point favorites or more are 71-35 SU but 41-63-2 ATS (39.4%) in the follow-up games. These teams are also 63-42-1 Under the total (60%) in these next contests since September of 2016.
Steve’s thoughts: You’d have to assume this ranked team has not learned its lesson from the initial setback, or alternatively, oddsmakers may have some predetermined biases built in overpricing them. As a former oddsmaker myself, I know how difficult it is to get over these prejudices quickly.
Qualifying plays for Week 10: NONE (Arizona State was the closest to qualifying but dropped out of the Top 25 this week)
CFB Ranked Team System #11: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 61-82 SU and 61-79-3 ATS (43.4%) since September 2019. These teams are also 68-32 Under the total (68%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
Steve’s thoughts: This is the danger of playing tough schedules, as it is hard to keep bringing it week after week against tough opponents, especially when wrestling with the emotions that come from a big win. These teams score 24.7 PPG in these contests, and considering the average team score during this time frame has been around 27 PPG, it is well off the pace.
Qualifying plays for Week 10: AGAINST VANDERBILT (+1.5 at Texas) and Under 45.5 in VAN-TEX
CFB Ranked Team System #12:Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 91-73 SU and 99-63-2 ATS (61.1%) dating back to November of 2015.
Steve’s thoughts: This is the upside of playing tough schedules, if a team remains mentally up to the challenge. They don’t have time to look back or look ahead, just concentrate on the task at hand. That turns out to be a blessing in most cases.
Qualifying plays for Week 10/11: SOUTH CAROLINA (+11.5 at Ole Miss), WISCONSIN (11/8 vs. Washington)
