College Football Stability Scores for 2025
Key takeaways:
- “Stable” college football teams are great bets early on
- Arizona State among most “stable” teams
- 10 teams have a stability score of Zero
For the last eight years, I have been sharing with VSiN subscribers my methodology on College Football Stability Scores. I offer the analysis for the first four weeks of every season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, and 3). It is the foremost strategy I employ every year to find value early. Teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded. The logic is fundamentally sound. Returning fewer starters, starting over at quarterback, and welcoming in new head coaches or coordinators are always hurdles for teams. Eventually, the teams may overcome these hurdles, even later that season, but the general thought is that it doesn’t happen early, and oddsmakers don’t account for these factors nearly enough in building their lines.
A lot of the foundation of what is considered “stable” or not in college football has been shaken in recent years as teams, fans, bettors, and oddsmakers alike all wrestle with the impact of the transfer portal. I have also thought long and hard about the subject and have concluded over the last few years that instability is instability, regardless of the form in which it comes.
To me, the position is of such importance that a transfer quarterback for a team, even if he has three years of starting experience somewhere else, I still consider him a NEW quarterback, or more effectively, a change at QB. He is still learning new schemes, and while his veteran experience may lessen some of the bumps along the way, there are still, in fact, hurdles to overcome early with this new player in this most key position. To me, this is still a big change. So, for all of you who have asked about how I am dealing with the transfer portal starters, here is your answer. I consider former starters at other schools acquired through the transfer portal at other positions as starters. I consider transfer QBs to be new. If you disagree, use your own discernment when the season comes around and the stability plays are announced in vying from those qualifying games.
There are many reasons why things can change dramatically from one season to the next in college football, among them the four-year eligibility rules, the pressure now placed on coaching staffs at every level program, the ever-growing transfer portal, and player transgressions off the field. The result is that there is always turnover from year to year, both on the field and on the sidelines. Bettors expecting to see the same thing they watched from a team at the end of the prior season can often be startled by the mammoth nature of change.
Over the last 13 years, I have implemented an early-season strategy that employs backing the teams with the greatest stability ratings in matchups against those in the most unstable situations. I can tell you that in those 13 years, I have never experienced a losing record by playing the games on the lists for the four weeks of the season. The degree of success has varied during that span, but in all 13 years I have closed with a profit, including last year, when the plays I shared went 23-14 ATS (62.2%). That was actually a better winning percentage year than typical, although it also produced 16 fewer plays than in 2023, when it showed a result of 30-23 for 56.5%. Had a bettor been playing $100 wagers on each game last fall, they would have profited $760.
I’ve put together a chart of the College Football Stability Scores for 2025. When the season arrives, I will put together lists in each of the first four weeks detailing the top mismatches. I have found that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which I will consider a play for this thought process. Incidentally, KANSAS (16) hosting Fresno State (1) in Week 0 shows the first 2025 playable game with a difference of 15.
Because some of you may be new to my College Football Stability System, I will again explain the basics for how I determine each team’s Total Stability Score. In essence, the score is determined from five different stabilizing factors: Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, Quarterback, and Overall Returning Starters. Here is how the scores are determined:
Returning Head Coach Points
Yes, same Head Coach as 2024: 4 points
No, new Head Coach for 2025: 0 points
Returning Offensive Coordinator Points
Yes, same Offensive Coordinator as 2024: 3 points
No, new Offensive Coordinator for 2025: 0 points
Returning Defensive Coordinator Points
Yes, same Defensive Coordinator as 2024: 3 points
No, new Defensive Coordinator for 2025: 0 points
Same Starting Quarterback Points
Yes, same Starting Quarterback as 2024: 4 points
No, new Starting Quarterback for 2025: 0 points
I reiterate…I consider a transfer quarterback that is expected to start for his team as a new quarterback, regardless of the starting experience level he brings to the table. For 2025, there are again numerous recognizable QBs that have found new starting homes across the country. For instance, Nico Iamaleava at UCLA or Carson Beck at Miami are among the veteran QBs across the country who boast big game college football experience but will be in new schemes this fall. While they are not your typical first-year quarterbacks, they are new to those programs.
Total Number of Returning Starters Points
0-7 returning offensive & defensive starters: 0 points
8-9: 1 point
10-12: 2 points
13-16: 3 points
17-19: 4 points
20-22: 5 points
VIEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY SCORE CHART HERE
As you can see, a perfect score is 19. The worst score a team can have is ZERO, and that has happened more often in each of the last three years than it had in the 10 years prior combined. So, as you analyze the chart of the 136 FBS teams, you’ll see that there are again teams this season in both very stable and very unsettling situations.
Looking back at the last five years, prior to the 2020 season, there were a total of 19 teams that were returning 17 starters or more. For 2021, there were 69 such teams, more than half of the total FBS programs! The average for the last four seasons, including 2025, has been just 14.5, including just seven this fall. Furthermore, in 2021, there were 89 teams that brought back their starting quarterbacks, along with eight entire starting offensive units and nine full defenses. For 2022, those numbers dropped to 78 QBs, ZERO full offenses, and just one intact defense. In 2023, there were 72 returning starting QBs, and only one intact unit of any kind. In 2024, only 53 starting quarterbacks returned to the spot they occupied last season with two units intact. Finally, for 2025, we are back up to 63 teams with returning starting QBs but only one unit intact, that being the Texas Tech defense.
Regarding program leadership, there are also 30 new head coaches along with 112 coordinator changes, resulting in 19 teams with Stability Scores of 3 or less, the most I have seen in a season since employing this system, one more than a year ago. I had naively predicted that there would be a return to normalcy after the 2021 season, but clearly that has not been the case due to the transfer portal and its effect on both quarterbacks and coaching staffs.
Let’s dig into the teams on both ends of the stability scale a little deeper.
Highly Stable Teams with scores of 18 or higher
In 2019, there were seven teams with scores of 18 or higher, and in 2020, there were only three. For 2021, the number ballooned to 30 teams that met that benchmark for stability! Keep in mind, the maximum score is 19. From 2022 to 2025, the average was just 6.25, including the four for this fall. Even with all of this inconsistency, the stability system continues to thrive as it is. In short, these programs figure to be in good shape for the coming season, at least early.
ARIZONA STATE (Big 12) – 18
I wrote last week about how Arizona State’s recruiting efforts this spring fell off surprisingly following last year’s Big 12 title and CFP run. Am I worried about head coach Kenny Dillingham’s team for 2025 after such a strange occurrence? Absolutely not. This Sun Devils team comes back loaded from that 11-3 team, led by QB Sam Leavitt, who threw for nearly 3,000 yards and a 24-6 TD-Int ratio. In all, 17 starters are back, a lofty number by today’s standards. They will have to replace RB Cam Skattebo, who is off to the NFL after putting on a show last season, but look for Army transfer RB Kanye Udoh and returning 1,000-yard WR Jordyn Tyson to pick up for the lost production. This team should be a contender again for another conference title.
BAYLOR (Big 12) – 18
ASU isn’t the only returning success story from 2024 from the Big 12 that appears to be loaded for another run this fall. Consider Baylor a frontrunner in the conference as well. Head coach Dave Aranda brings back 17 starters from his 8-5 team of last fall, including his quarterback, top two rushers, and top two pass catchers. This team already made massive strides from 2023 to 2024, going from 3-9 to 8-5 while also increasing its offensive production from 23.1 to 34.4 PPG. The early season for Aranda’s team is extremely tough with home games versus Auburn and Arizona State, as well as a trip to SMU, all in the first four weeks. Fortunately, we have learned that the most stable teams tend to fare well early in the season. If the Bears emerge unscathed from that set of contests, the sky is the limit.
CLEMSON (ACC) – 18
Clemson is another team that got mentioned in my recent recruiting rankings study for its slipping success levels in that regard. For the most part, this seems to be due to head coach Dabo Swinney’s hesitancy to fully embrace the transfer portal other than to fill select roster openings. Although the Tigers haven’t been national championship worthy in the last half-decade or so, it hasn’t hurt them terribly, as they are able to keep most of the guys they originally recruited and developed. This year figures to be one in which they benefit from that strategy, as there are a number of multi-year performers back and ready to get this team back for another CFP run. One of those is QB Cade Klubnik, now a senior with 28 starts under his belt. He leads a group of 17 starters back from a team that won the ACC and went 10-4 in 2024. Nine starters are back on defense, looking to improve on allowing 23,4 PPG, the worst for the unit in 12 years. The experience should help a lot in that area. Clemson will be tested right out of the gate in a home game vs. LSU, another stable program for 2025. However, Swinney’s team does appear to be the class of the ACC.
ILLINOIS (Big Ten) – 18
Illinois has clearly become an emerging football program under head coach Bret Bielema, and 2025 could be the season that the Illini show the country just how good they are. This team won 10 games last season for the first time since 2001, improving by five wins from 2023. It could be only the start, as 19 starters return for Bielema this fall, including senior QB Luke Altmeyer, who had a very good season in 2024, putting up a 22-6 TD-Int ratio. He leads the most experienced offense in the country back, as 10 starters are in place for that unit. The 2025 slate features only one game that you’d think Illinois wouldn’t be favored in, that being at home versus Ohio State in October. Dreams of a playoff bid aren’t unrealistic, especially if veteran experience winds up being the difference for a team that has grown accustomed to playing in tight games.
Unstable Teams with scores of ZERO
From 2019-21, there were a total of 16 teams going into the fall with Stability Scores of 3 or lower. The numbers have been double-digits in each year since, including this year’s total of 10. I haven’t studied it as closely since 2021, with so many teams now qualifying, but at that point, the teams meeting this low benchmark were proven to be less than 45% ATS performers over the prior five-year span. Plus, with the success of the Stability System in general, it’s safe to assume these teams below shouldn’t be consistently wagered on this season.
APPALACHIAN STATE (Sun Belt) – 0
Appalachian State just had its first sub-.500 season since 2013, and goes in a new direction, welcoming in new head coach Dowell Loggains to try to recharge the troops. Loggains comes over from South Carolina, where he served as offensive coordinator for the Gamecocks for the last two seasons. His job won’t be easy as this program seems to be on the downward side of a “mountain,” pardon the pun, one that peaked from 2015-21, a seven-year span in which the Mountaineers won 73 games. He has only seven returning starters. Fortunately for Loggains, his team starts the season with two other unstable programs in Charlotte and Southern Miss, and another vs. FCS Lindenwood. Perhaps this won’t be as bad a situation as feared, particularly with transfer QB AJ Swann, a former starter at Vandy, expected to take over the offense’s key spot.
BOWLING GREEN – (MAC) – 0
Bowling Green made an interesting head coaching hire this offseason, bringing in NFL Hall-of-Fame running back Eddie George to lead the efforts in carrying on the momentum of three straight bowl-qualifying seasons. While new to FBS, this isn’t his first head job, as George led the Tennessee State football program for the last four years, winning an Ohio Valley title last year while earning conference COY honors. The biggest challenge for him in his first season at BGSU will be on the defensive side of the ball, where just one starter returns from a unit that allowed just 21.6 PPG, its best in over a decade. Even still, if you’re wondering what the experts behind the counter think of this team’s situation in 2025, DraftKings has set a season win prop of 6.5 for the Falcons. Much of that optimism could stem from George bringing in former Notre Dame starting QB Drew Pyne to take over the Falcons’ offense. That is a clear win for a MAC program. We’ll see how it goes, but there are a lot of unstable situations in the conference for 2025, this certainly doesn’t appear to be the worst of them.
CHARLOTTE (American) – 0
Most Charlotte fans were quite fond of the hiring of former head coach Biff Poggi a few years ago because of the attitude and fire it brought to the program. It didn’t translate into enough wins, however, and he was fired with two games remaining last season. His replacement is Tim Albin, a very strong hire for the program. Albin has plenty of Group of 5 FBS experience, having served as Ohio’s head man for the last four seasons, where he was 33-19. Only seven starters are back, and it could take a little while for Albin to get his footing because of it. The good news is that the first four opponents show an FCS foe, two other FBS teams with stability scores of ZERO, and one other with a 2. Albin’s been successful in similar-level football, and with UNC transfer QB Connor Harrell coming in, there is some reason for optimism.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (American) – 0
Lane Kiffin established new standards while at FAU. Since he left a handful of years ago, his replacements have been unable to match the lofty level of success that he attained. The latest victim to fall was Tom Herman, who was just 12-24 in three seasons for the Owls. The program goes in a different direction this time, bringing in an inexperienced but surely hungry young guy in Zach Kittley. He is just 33 years old and comes off a successful stint as the OC at Texas Tech, transfer Caden Veltkamp of Western Kentucky. There are several other American Athletic teams that would figure to be in worse shape than FAU, especially after the Veltkamp move. However, with only six starters back, this will be an unstable situation early, and the Owls will for sure be a play against a team in the opener at Maryland by my Stability System.
JACKSONVILLE STATE – (Conference USA) – 0
Former head coach Rich Rodriguez leaves this newer FBS program in great shape for replacement Charles Kelly, as very few programs that have transitioned lately to college football’s highest level can match the success that the Gamecocks have enjoyed the last two years. That said, it is only natural to expect a drop-off in 2025, as Kelly has only three starters back on each side of the ball and will be changing schemes dramatically from what Rodriguez ran. Look for JSU to be a play against Stability System qualifiers in Weeks 2 and 3 versus Liberty and Georgia Southern.
MARSHALL (Sun Belt) – 0
Former head coach Charles Huff’s unresolvable contract dispute left Marshall in utter disarray for its bowl game, an eventual 35-17 loss to UTSA. If you think the Herd team that played in the Cure Bowl was unstable, you’ll get a whole lot more of that in the early part of the upcoming season under new head coach Tony Gibson, who served the last six years as DC at NC State. He has just four starters back from last year’s 10-3 team. There may not be another program this season that bears a lesser resemblance to its 2024 self. The 2025 campaign starts as tough as it gets, with a trip to Georgia to face a very stable Bulldogs team that is hungry after its CFP disappointment in January.
MASSACHUSETTS (MAC) – 0
Mass instability is the name of the game in this part of the article, and the situation at UMass figures to fit that bill to a tee. There will be just seven starters back from last year’s 2-10 team, which in some ways, could wind up being a good thing since eight wins in six seasons demands a house cleaning. If you think that moving to the MAC could help hasten the rebuild efforts for new head coach Joe Harasymiak and the Minutemen, perhaps you’d like the Over 3.5 on their team win prop. After all, there are a lot of unstable teams from the MAC this season. Plus, Harasymiak has brought in a former P4 quarterback in Brandon Rose (Utah). Keep in mind, this program is just 8-56 over the last six seasons.
NEW MEXICO – (Mountain West) – 0
It was a short stay for Bronco Mendenhall at New Mexico, unfortunate since he led the Lobos to a 5-7 record in 2024, the program’s best mark since 2016. He opted for the head position at Mountain West rival Utah State shortly after the season. Instead, for 2025, the Lobos will turn to Jason Eck, who has made six different stops at FCS schools over the last 15 years, including most recently at Idaho, where he served as head coach from 2022-2024. Eck will look to keep the momentum going from the one season under Mendenhall, but it’s never easy for a program when an abrupt, unexpected change like this occurs. New Mexico football was “back” last season after a miserable run of seven straight years winning four games or fewer. Now, with just seven starters back, the Lobos are again generally picked as the worst team in the MWC, and Eck will have his hands full. One slight reason for optimism, Eck brings with him his Idaho starting QB, a junior, Jack Layne, and he is expected to earn the job in Albuquerque. That will lessen the scheme change impact. Still, this will be a play against the team in both of its FBS games (Michigan, UCLA) in the first three weeks.
RICE (American) – 0
Former Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren managed to last seven full seasons despite not finishing with a winning record even a single time in that stretch. Perhaps a change was in order. The Owls now turn to Scott Abell, who, after a successful turnaround of the Davidson program, gets a FCS to FBS promotion. He runs an option offense, so expect a completely new look for Rice in 2025. With that in mind, this situation will represent one of, if not, the biggest changeover in the country in terms of systems. To be frank, it’s difficult to imagine a situation where it’s successful. Seven starters are back, but this will be a play against a Stability System qualifier in Week 1 vs. Louisiana.
UNLV (Mountain West) – 0
Barry Odom changed the trajectory of UNLV football over the last three seasons, as the Runnin’ Rebels won 26 games during his stay. Even in leaving, he had the program in desirable enough shape where they could bring in a former big-name Power 4 coach in Dan Mullen, who has an important job to do in not only maintaining the winning standard established by Odom, but also in keeping this program relevant in the Las Vegas area. It had slipped in that regard dramatically prior to Odom’s arrival. To be fair, the move for the program into Allegiant Stadium and the draw of Sin City have Mullen in an ideal situation to succeed. It has already shown some nice early returns, as he was able to attract a lot of Power 4 talent to UNLV. On paper, only four starters return, but the transfer portal, led by former Virginia QB Anthony Colandrea, has this team ready to compete again for a MWC crown. Be careful with this team early, since the first month of the season is where mass instability tends to rear its ugly head.
