College Football Stability Systems Picks for Week 0:
Hopefully you caught my full article in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide released earlier this month regarding my long-running College Football Stability System. It has always been one of the more popular methodologies I have produced, and I have to assume it’s because of its track record and the foundation on which it was built.
Well, last year was an eye-opener for me regarding the stability system. Before the 2025 campaign, I shared my concern that program stability was changing largely because of the transfer portal. However, since the system had suffered only a single losing season since 2013, I figured I owed it to VSiN readers to go with the methodology “as is.” Unfortunately, that backfired a bit for me and everyone who has benefited from the Stability System for many years, as the final record wound up being just 30-36 ATS. I promised after Week 3 that I would dig into the nuts and bolts of the concept to see whether what I was doing still made sense in this new era. I did that this summer and now have some new data to share. As sports bettors, we have to adapt to ever-changing norms, and hopefully what I’m about to share with you provides a boost to a thought process that I am sure still has a foundation.
In this piece, I am going to briefly recap the new findings and share the Stability System plays for Week 0.
I encourage everyone to dig back into the guide for the full article if they want a more detailed look at the system(s).
Before this year, all my Stability System plays were based on teams having a “Stability Score” advantage of seven points or more on my scale. I found in some regression analysis this summer that I could improve the numbers by being more selective, or by drilling down into the different variables that make up the Stability System scores. If any of this sounds familiar to my baseball fan readers out there, it’s quite similar to what I do currently with my MLB Bullpen Systems, which have also been very successful for a decade or more.
As a numbers guy always looking for quantitative advantages in betting, I like to run an exercise that quantifies each program’s stability in the offseason. I figure that the higher the level of stability, the better the chances for success for any team, particularly early in the season. Naturally, putting a numerical grade to it makes it easier to spot this stability. Again, the point spread considered, the feeling is that oddsmakers don’t adjust enough for the “instability.”
As I just mentioned…and this is where the new numbers and changes will come in. I have done some regression analysis on my College Football Stability System, and these are the results. First off, my results still did show that the first four weeks (0, 1, 2, and 3) were the most impacted by stability. So I’ll stick with that. Also, since most of the changes I’ve seen in college football have come since the COVID season, I looked back at the results of the various stability factors in the first four weeks since 2021. Here are those results, with teams qualifying in week 0 for the more definitive angles denoted. Note that these trends only include FBS vs. FBS games.
NEW head coaches are 91-153 SU and 110-132 ATS (45.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021
2026 Week 0 Plays: AGAINST Sacramento State +9.5, AGAINST Memphis +5.5
NEW offensive coordinators are 157-203 SU and 177-178 ATS (49.9%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning offensive coordinators since 2021
NEW defensive coordinators are 165-198 SU and 163-195 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021
2026 Week 0 Plays: AGAINST Stanford -5.5, AGAINST Memphis +5.5
NEW starting quarterbacks are 159-178 SU and 157-172 ATS (47.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021
Teams with 0-7 total returning starters are 21-60 SU and 40-41 ATS (49.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 8+ since 2021
Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 107-89 SU and 108-86 ATS (55.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021
2026 Week 0 Plays: ON USC -38.5
From this info, bettors can certainly discern that having new head coaches, new defensive coordinators, and a lot of returning starters are the most impactful offseason happenings.
Over the last decade-plus, the “old stability system” was about a 57% consistent running strategy. However, I was also able to recognize that conference games were pulling the winning percentages down. In fact, the teams with the old stability edge of seven points or more in conference game action were only winning around 49.5% ATS.
The other two things I found that were negatively impacting my Stability System results were 1) games with point spreads of 30+ and 2) leaving out teams with an edge of 6 on the stability scores.
With the stats above in mind, my official new College Football Stability System(s) will read as follows:
Play ON any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game DOES NOT have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (335-222 SU & 302-243-12 ATS, 55.4% since 2013)
2026 Week 0 Plays: ON Eastern Michigan -9.5, ON Hawaii +5.5, ON UNLV -5.5
AND
Play AGAINST any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game DOES NOT have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (FADE record 259-136 SU and 217-173-4 ATS, 55.6% since 2013)
2026 Week 0 Plays: AGAINST Sacramento State +9.5, AGAINST Stanford -5.5, AGAINST Memphis +5.5
Doing regression on the tweaked Stability Score Edge System, I found that over the last 13 years, there were only two losing seasons, one of them being last year. The second angle: teams with 0-6 scores even lost a year ago, as they were 22-26 ATS. In my opinion, both systems are still very viable.
Of course, I’m sure these numbers can be improved by factoring in other successful handicapping strategies or by more closely examining the individual factors of instability, but as stand-alone concepts, the success level is tough to beat.
Just below, I’ve put together a chart of the College Football Stability Scores for 2026.
At the risk of boring the season VSiN veterans, I will again explain the basics of how I determine each team’s Total Stability Score. In essence, the score is determined from five different stabilizing factors: Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, Quarterback, and Overall Returning Starters. Here is how the scores are determined:
Returning Head Coach Points
Yes, same Head Coach as 2025: 4 points
No, new Head Coach for 2026: 0 points
Returning Offensive Coordinator Points
Yes, same Offensive Coordinator as 2025: 3 points
No, new Offensive Coordinator for 2026: 0 points
Returning Defensive Coordinator Points
Yes, same Defensive Coordinator as 2025: 3 points
No, new Defensive Coordinator for 2026: 0 points
Same Starting Quarterback Points
Yes, same Starting Quarterback as 2025: 4 points
No, new Starting Quarterback for 2026: 0 points
I consider a transfer quarterback expected to start for his team a new quarterback, regardless of the starting experience he brings to the table. For 2026, numerous recognizable QBs have again found new starting homes across the country. For instance, Josh Hoover at Indiana or Sam Leavitt at LSU are among the veteran QBs across the country that boast big-game college football experience but will be in new schemes this fall. While they are not your typical first-year quarterbacks, they are NEW to those programs.
Total Number of Returning Starters Points
0-7 returning offensive & defensive starters: 0 points
8-9: 1 point
10-12: 2 points
13-16: 3 points
17-19: 4 points
20-22: 5 points
VIEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY SCORES CHART HERE
A perfect score is 19. The worst score a team can have is ZERO, and that has happened more often in each of the last four years than it had in the 10 years prior combined. So, as you analyze the chart of the 138 FBS teams, you’ll see that there are some very interesting numbers.
For more Week 0 college football picks and predictions, visit the VSiN Week 0 College Football Hub.
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