College Football Week 0 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
We begin a new and highly anticipated season of FBS college football on Saturday with eight Week 0 games. I also begin my Best Bets offerings for the season with a set of six of those games. That’s a far greater percentage than I will usually take in any given week, but I attribute it to having the last couple of months to dig into the season with my typical handicapping routine, and thus I’ve been able to form some deeper opinions. You will find that almost every play I suggest has at least one or two bits of analytical information we have presented in our weekly CFB Analytics Reports. Honestly, I’d feel lost without them. Good luck and enjoy these opening games.
Saturday, August 28, 2026
North Carolina at TCU (-9.5)
Obviously, the public has already formed an opinion of what kind of season it is going to be for head coach Bill Belichick at North Carolina. In this first matchup in Dublin versus TCU, the Tar Heels are being completely disregarded, as the line has shot up from less than a TD to now UNC catching +9.5 points. Is the move warranted?
Well, yes, if you’re looking at what happened between these teams a year ago, the first-ever contest in the Belichick era. The Horned Frogs dominated that game in Chapel Hill, winning that game 48-14 while taking the yardage battle 542-222. It was totally one-sided. However, there was immense media pressure on UNC to perform in that game and for that season. I don’t think the pressure gauge will be even close this year, since expectations are now low for this team. That figures to be good for the group.
They should also get better QB play this season from transfer Billy Edwards and should be notably better on defense. Plus, last year’s TCU team brought back a prolific veteran QB in Josh Hoover. They were ready to go in Week 1. He is now off to Indiana, leaving a huge hole for FCS Harvard transfer Jaden Craig to fill. By the way, this is a nice revenge spot, as since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 55-37 ATS (59.8%).
College Football Week 0 Best Bet: Give me the +9.5 points, which have run wild, with UNC
Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan (-9.5)
Is there any bigger wild card team in 2026 college football than Sacramento State? Not only are the Hornets beginning a new era of FBS football, but they are doing it with a new coaching staff and a remade roster, and they are playing half of their games in the Midwest in the MAC conference. Needless to say, my Stability Ratings for this team show a ZERO. As such, my wild card guess is that this team is going to have a rough year.
Meanwhile, EMU should be in relatively good shape, bringing back 12 starters, including senior QB Noah Kim. With several new coaches on the sidelines for usual contenders in the MAC, the Eagles have to be thinking of contention. Getting off to a good start would help a ton, and this game is one of my Stability System plays: Play on any team with a Stability Score edge of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (335-222 SU and 302-243-12 ATS, 55.4% since 2013). As it is, new head coaches are 91-153 SU and 110-132 ATS (45.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021. CSS head coach Alonzo Carter has a lot more to deal with than just being a new head coach.
College Football Week 0 Best Bet: I’ll back Eastern Michigan -9.5 versus Sacramento State
Hawaii at Stanford (-4)
Another team with a stability deficit playing on Saturday is Stanford, who welcomes Hawaii to town. Although the Cardinal were able to win four games last season for the first time since 2020, it’s still been a difficult start to their time in the ACC. Head coach Tavita Pritchard takes over and has a decent set of players returning. However, I’d be lying if I showed any comfort with laying points with this team, even, or especially at home. Stanford is 10-20-1 (33.3%) ATS in last 31 home games. They haven’t covered a game as home favorites since 2019!
This game, of course, has the same stability angle applied as the EMU-CSS game, but this one too: New defensive coordinators are 165-198 SU and 163-195 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021. If you need more, consider that P4 home favorites of -30 or fewer points are 41-5 SU vs. G5 visiting teams in Weeks 0/1 but just 17-29 ATS (37%) over the last three seasons. Hawaii, 9-4 last year, should be able to score here with QB Micah Allejado back for his sophomore season after leading the Warriors to 29 PPG in 2025.
College Football Week 0 Best Bet: Hawaii looks like a live underdog at +4
San Jose State at USC (-38.5)
Head coach Lincoln Riley has to be pretty excited about the prospects for his 2026 USC team, as it brings back 17 starters, including stud QB Jayden Maiava. As it is, teams with 17+ total returning starters are 107-89 SU and 108-86 ATS (55.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021. That is a huge edge for the Trojans in this game against a reeling San Jose State program.
There is no doubt that USC will score a lot in this game. Last year, they were 6-0 at home while putting up 45 PPG. There is a reason they are such a big favorite here. Huge home favorites (-36 points or more) have been outstanding in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 23-0 SU and 18-5 ATS (78.3%)! Also, no need to worry about the fact that 86% of the betting handle at DraftKings is on the hosts here either, since, contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 82-65 ATS (55.8%) over the last four seasons. If you’re concerned about USC’s defense, they are aiming for a major turnaround in 2026 under new coordinator Gary Patterson.
College Football Week 0 Best Bet: Looks like a rout to me. I’ll lay the 38.5 with USC
Memphis at UNLV (-4.5)
Memphis head coach Charles Huff has become quite the journeyman, landing at his third school in as many years. Theoretically, each stop has been a step up, even though he may not have earned a “promotion” after a modest season at Southern Miss. I don’t think either he or his reworked Memphis team is ready for what UNLV will have for them on Saturday in Sin City.
If you ask me, UNLV is one of the more underrated situations in the Group of 5 conferences. The Runnin’ Rebels have a bunch of P4 transfers in key positions for 2026, including former five-star QB recruit Jackson Arnold, who personally makes his third college stop. There is also strong momentum for head coach Dan Mullen & Co., who have won double-digit games in back-to-back seasons.
This is another Stability Mismatch qualifying game, mostly by virtue of the Tigers’ instability. A lot of outsiders are seeing this game as a key matchup of G5 CFP contenders. I have to disagree, as I see Memphis in decline mode for 2026, making this one perhaps a little easier for UNLV than the point spread indicates. Plus, UNLV is 27-8 (77.1%) ATS in non-conference games since 2017. They take care of biz here.
College Football Week 0 Best Bet: I’ll side with UNLV -4.5 vs. Memphis
NC State at Virginia (Total 52.5)
The one total I’m looking closely at for this week comes from the lone conference game on Saturday, as NC State heads to Charlottesville to take on Virginia. That is noteworthy in itself since Under the total is 4-0-1 in the last five of the series in Charlottesville. Those five games averaged 38 PPG, a very low figure by college football standards.
Considering these teams combined to win 19 games last season, this would figure to be a pretty key game in the overall ACC picture. As such, I expect it to be played close to the vest, a dogfight if you will. Historically, early P4 conference games like this have meant Unders: Week 0/1 games between P4 conference opponents have been ridiculously low-scoring since 2021, producing 14 Unders, 6 Overs (70% Under) and 46.8 PPG on average since 2021.
Looking back at late last season too, you will find that Virginia’s last six games versus conference foes produced just 37 PPG. I don’t think the Cavaliers will be looking to get into a shootout with an offensively experienced NC State squad and will play the game accordingly.
College Football Week 0 Best Bet: Under 52.5 in the NC State-Virginia ACC tilt for me
For more college football Week 0 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 0 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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