Steve Makinen is our main numbers guy here at VSiN, and his weekly best bets are a “greatest hits” compilation of system matches, betting trends analysis, and his proprietary power ratings, which can only be found right here at VSiN.com. Follow up with Steve’s weekly content, which is linked in the explanations for his picks.
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CFB Betting Splits Systems (Saturday 11/25 update)
Here are the DK Betting Splits College Football Systems and their updated performance records:
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season through Saturday, November 4, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 72-84 ATS (46%). This angle has matched the same 46% record in 2023 as it did in 2022. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OLD DOMINION, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE, LIBERTY, JACKSONVILLE STATE, SOUTH ALABAMA, KANSAS, GEORGIA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager from the start of the 2022 season to 11/5, this majority group was just 138-158 ATS (46.6%). Last season it was 46.5%. This year it is 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DUKE, LSU, N TEXAS, OLD DOMINION, W KENTUCKY, LA LAFAYETTE, UNLV, ARIZONA, ALABAMA, MARYLAND, TENNESSEE, LIBERTY, WASHINGTON, WEST VIRGINIA, FLORIDA STATE, KANSAS, GEORGIA, WYOMING
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 134-160 ATS (45.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors have improved on this system in ’23, but there is still plenty of season to go.
System Matches (FADE ALL): N ILLINOIS, TROY, UCONN, MIDDLE TENN STATGE, W KENTUCKY, ARIZONA, ALABAMA, WISCONSIN, MARYLAND, LIBERTY, VA TECH, JACKSONVILLE STATE, WEST VIRGINIA, FLORIDA STATE, NOTRE DAME, SOUTH ALABAMA, KANSAS, GEORGIA, WYOMING, COLORADO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 146-157 ATS (48.2%). Again, an improvement for bettors has been seen in 2023. Still, bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (OH), N ILLINOIS, TROY, UCONN, MIDDLE TENN STATE, W KENTUCKY, ARIZONA, ALABAMA, WISCONSIN, MARYLAND, LIBERTY, VA TECH, JAMES MADISON, JACKSONVILLE STATE, WEST VIRGINIA, FLORIDA STATE, NOTRE DAME, SOUTH ALABAMA, KANSAS, GEORGIA, CLEMSON, NORTH CAROLINA, WYOMING, FRESNO STATE, COLORADO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 130-119 ATS (52.2%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off. Remember, a higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, TULSA, WAKE FOREST, ARKANSAS ST, GA SOUTHERN, CHARLOTTE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past season and a half, this majority group has gone 118-102 ATS (53.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #5 actually, and though down a bit for 2023, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE, COLORADO, NORTHWESTERN
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past season and a half, this majority group has gone just 235-282 ATS (43.7%), generally maintaining consistency from 2022 to 2023. More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LOUISVILLE, LSU, MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, DUKE, UCF, SMU, TROY, N ILLINOIS, TULSA, WESTERN KENTUCKY, UTAH, LA LAFAYETTE, UNLV, ALABAMA, ARIZONA, OKLAHOMA STATE, TENNESSEE, LIBERTY, WISCONSIN, VA TECH, ARKANSAS STATE, WASHINGTON, FLORIDA STATE, NOTRE DAME, WEST VIRGINIA, GEORGIA, KANSAS, KANSAS STATE, WYOMING, UCLA, COLORADO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9, the angle focusing on majority handle and opposite line movement has been removed from our tracking list as it is only five games under .500 over the past year and a half, not providing any real advantage for bettors.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 49-34 (59%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 83 of 1321 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UAB-N TEXAS, KANSAS-CINCY, GEORGIA-GA TECH, CHARLOTTE-SOUTH FLORIDA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 24-10 (70.6%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority are sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): WAKE FOREST-SYRACUSE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 43-25 (63.2%). This system has actually gone up in win percentage this season. Again, not a ton of plays here but the more public option of the number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIAMI (OH)-BALL STATE, PITT-DUKE, TULSA-ECU, WYOMING-NEVADA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #13, the angle focusing on majority handle and opposite bet volume majority has been removed from our tracking list as it is 46.4% this season after going 54.6% in 2022, not maintaining the consistency I like to look for.
