The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 0. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* UNLV is 27-8 (77.1%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (-4.5 vs Memphis)

* Since 2023, P4 home favorites of -30 or fewer points are 41-5 SU vs. G5 visiting teams in Weeks 0/1 but just 17-29 ATS (37%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): STANFORD (-4 vs Hawaii)

* Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-totaled games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48.5 or less and a favorite of 4 points or more, Under the total is 49-22 (69%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UNC-TCU (o/u at 46.5), Jacksonville St-N Dakota St (o/u at 46.5), Hawaii-Stanford (o/u at 48.5)

#1 Underprice underdog according to the Makinen Power Ratings simulation: NORTH CAROLINA +9.5 vs TCU (projections have line at UNC +6.1)

College Football Stability Score plays for Week 0

If you were one of the many readers of the 2026 College Football Betting Guide, or alternatively, have been a VSiN subscriber for a while now. If so, you’re probably already familiar with the methodology Steve Makinen has successfully used for the last 13 years or so regarding college football Stability Scores heading into the start of each season. If not, in a nutshell, what these scores are is a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies he employs every year to find value early. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.

Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Weeks 0-3. Here are this week’s qualifying plays. There is a separate article on VSiN that goes in-depth about these plays and scores, with new studies conducted recently over the ever-changing landscape of the transfer portal in college football.

New head coaches are 91-153 SU and 110-132 ATS (45.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO ST (+10 at E Michigan), MEMPHIS (+4.5 at UNLV)

New defensive coordinators are 165-198 SU and 163-195 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021
System Matches (FADE ALL): STANFORD (-4 vs Hawaii), MEMPHIS (+4.5 at UNLV)

Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 107-89 SU and 108-86 ATS (55.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021
System Match (PLAY): USC (-38.5 vs San Jose St)

In 2026, these are our new College Football Stability System(s):

Play ON any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (335-222 SU and 302-243-12 ATS, 55.4% since 2013)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): EASTERN MICHIGAN (-10 vs Sacramento St), HAWAII (+4 at Stanford), UNLV (-4.5 vs Memphis)

Play against any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (FADE record 259-136 SU and 217-173-4 ATS, 55.6% since 2013)
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO (+10 at E Michigan), STANFORD (-4 vs Hawaii), MEMPHIS (+4.5 at UNLV)

CFB Opening Week(s) Concepts to Consider

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1: Huge home favorites (-36 points or more) have been outstanding in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 23-0 SU and 18-5 ATS (78.3%)!
System Match (PLAY): USC (-38.5 vs San Jose St) 

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #3: Since 2023, P4 home favorites of -30 or fewer points are 41-5 SU vs. G5 visiting teams in Weeks 0/1 but just 17-29 ATS (37%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): STANFORD (-4 vs Hawaii)
*WATCH FOR FLORIDA STATE vs New Mexico State (-30.5 CURRENTLY)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #6: Week 0/1 games between P4 conference opponents in Weeks 0/1 have been ridiculously low-scoring since 2021, producing 14 Unders, 6 Overs (70% Under) and 46.8 PPG on average since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NC State-Virginia (o/u at 52.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #7: Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-totaled games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48.5 or less and a favorite of 4-points or more, Under the total is 49-22 (69%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UNC-TCU (o/u at 46.5), Jacksonville State-North Dakota State (o/u at 46.5), Hawaii-Stanford (o/u at 48.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #9: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents featuring a home favorite have been unexpectedly lower-scoring, producing 44 Unders, 27 Overs (62%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Jacksonville State-North Dakota State (o/u at 46.5), Memphis-UNLV (o/u at 56.5)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Neutral field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 55-37 ATS (59.8%).
System Match (PLAY): NORTH CAROLINA (+9.5 vs TCU) 

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* STANFORD is 10-20-1 (33.3%) ATS in the last 31 home games
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (-4 vs Hawaii)

* UNLV is 27-8 (77.1%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (-4.5 vs Memphis)

* USC is 35-18 ATS (66%) Over the total in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAN JOSE STATE-USC (o/u at 60.5)

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(311) HAWAII at (312) STANFORD
Favorites have both won and covered in the two meetings between Hawaii and Stanford since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): STANFORD (-4 vs Hawaii)

(317) NC STATE at (318) VIRGINIA
NC STATE is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven matchups with Virginia
Trend Match (PLAY): NC STATE (+4 at UVA)
*Under the total is 4-0-1 in the last five of the series in Charlottesville as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NC State-Virginia (o/u at 52.5)  

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 588-657 ATS (47.2%). This angle has produced consistently over the last four seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in four straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): USC (-38.5 vs San Jose St), JACKSONVILLE STATE (+7 at North Dakota State), EASTERN MICHIGAN (-10 vs Sacramento State), FLORIDA STATE (-30.5 vs New Mexico State)

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 241-263 ATS (47.8%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. Last year it was six games over-.500. I personally believe that performance will prove to be a fluke. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page >75%, it is best to fade it.
System Match (FADE): FLORIDA ST (-30.5 vs New Mexico St)

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 153-134 ATS (53.3%). This is a pretty good percentage for a high-volume, simple-based system, and a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates. It goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NC STATE (+4 at UVA), JACKSONVILLE STATE (+7 at North Dakota State)

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5-points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 82-65 ATS (55.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): USC (-38.5 vs San Jose State), FLORIDA STATE (-30.5 vs New Mexico State)

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 69-51 (57.5%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UNC-TCU (o/u at 46.5), Jacksonville State-North Dakota State (o/u at 46.5)

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NORTH CAROLINA +9.5 (+3.1)
2. NEW MEXICO STATE +30.5 (+2.6)
3. SAN JOSE STATE +38.5 (+2.2)
4. SACRAMENTO STATE +10 (+1.9)
5. JACKSONVILLE STATE +7 (+1.2)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UNLV -4.5 (+1.0)
2. VIRGINIA -4 (+0.7)

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO STATE +10 (+1.5)
2. NORTH CAROLINA +9.5 (+1.0)
3. NEW MEXICO STATE +30.5 (+0.5)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. USC -38.5 (+4.4)
2. VIRGINIA -4 (+3.4)
3. UNLV -4.5 (+2.3)
4. NORTH DAKOTA STATE -7 (+1.4)
5. STANFORD -4 (+0.9)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JACKSONVILLE STATE-NORTH DAKOTA STATE OVER 46.5 (+2.6)
2. NORTH CAROLINA-TCU OVER 46.5 (+1.1)
3(tie). SACRAMENTO STATE-E MICHIGAN OVER 53.5 (+1.0)
NC STATE-VIRGINIA OVER 52.5 (+1.0)
5. HAWAII-STANFORD OVER 48.5 (+0.5)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN JOSE STATE-USC UNDER 60.5 (-0.9)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN JOSE STATE +38.5 (+7.7)
2. NORTH CAROLINA +9.5 (+6.3)
3. HAWAII +4 (+2.6)
4. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+2.3)
5. JACKSONVILLE STATE +7 (+1.1)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. VIRGINIA -4 (+1.4)
2. FLORIDA STATE -30.5 (+1.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JACKSONVILLE STATE-NORTH DAKOTA STATE OVER 46.5 (+3.6)
2. NEW MEXICO STATE-FLORIDA STATE OVER 53.5 (+2.9)
3. HAWAII-STANFORD OVER 48.5 (+1.9)
4. SACRAMENTO STATE-E MICHIGAN OVER 53.5 (+1.8)
5. NORTH CAROLINA-TCU OVER 46.5 (+0.9)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NC STATE-VIRGINIA UNDER 52.5 (-0.4)

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