Week 0 College Football Predictions
The wait is over. We are officially back with college football games on our TVs starting this week, which means I am back providing projections and bets from my T Shoe Index. To quickly summarize what the T Shoe Index (TSI) is, it’s an opponent-adjusted and tempo-adjusted ratings and projection system designed to simply answer the question, “How many points would Team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B?” This week’s card will be small since there’s only a handful of Week 0 games, but we’re looking forward to a full slate next week. Here are the TSI projections for Week 0:
| Date | Neutral? | Home | Away | TSI Spread | TSI Total |
| 8/29/2026 | Eastern Michigan | Sacramento State | 6.5 | 52.0 | |
| 8/29/2026 | Florida State | New Mexico State | 23.0 | 50.5 | |
| 8/29/2026 | Virginia | NC State | 4.0 | 51.0 | |
| 8/29/2026 | Y | North Carolina | TCU | -5.0 | 49.5 |
| 8/29/2026 | North Dakota State | Jacksonville State | 9.0 | 53.5 | |
| 8/29/2026 | Stanford | Hawaii | 5.0 | 51.0 | |
| 8/29/2026 | UNLV | Memphis | 1.5 | 59.0 | |
| 8/29/2026 | USC | San Jose State | 34.5 | 55.0 |
Best Bet for Week 0:
USC (-38.5) vs San Jose State, O/U 60.5
We’ve seen this line climb from 59 up to the current 60.5, but TSI disagrees with this move towards the Over. The official projection on this game total is 55 points, and I understand the deserved hype around USC QB Jayden Maiava, but I think there’s perhaps been an underestimation of new DC Gary Patterson for this USC defense. San Jose State also returns just 24% of its production from last year, so I don’t expect them to contribute to this total much, and even a 50-piece from the USC offense still could produce a result Under this total. USC was 92nd in tempo and 103rd in plays per game last year, and SJSU upgraded at defensive coordinator, going from Derrick Odum to Al Lapuaho. USC may cover the spread here, but I think the safest bet is the Under.
Bet: Under 60.5 (play to 58.5)
