Week 2 College Football Betting Trends:
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams whose lines swing grossly huge amounts from Game 1 to Game 2 have performed predictably, with 52 points being the benchmark. Those teams whose lines are 52 points or more worse in game 2 than their opener are on a 42-21 ATS (66.7%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OLD DOMINION (+19.5 at Virginia Tech), ARIZONA ST (+14.5 at Texas AandM), RICE (+44.5 at Notre Dame), DELAWARE (+20.5 or worse at Vanderbilt), SOUTHERN MISS (+32.5 or worse at Auburn), LA TECH (+35.5 at LSU), OHIO ST (+1.5 or worse at Texas), CHARLOTTE (+47.5 at Ole Miss), ARKANSAS (+11.5 or worse at Utah)
NAVY is on a 32-11 ATS (74.4%) run in conference games when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-4.5 at FAU)
Road teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Bama-UK set
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-10.5 at Kentucky)
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 230-182 ATS (55.8%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (+13.5 at Marshall), UT-SAN ANTONIO (+1.5 at Texas St)
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 32-47 ATS (40.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): MISSISSIPPI ST (+1.5 at Minnesota)
PURDUE is 7-20 ATS (25.9%) at home over the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PURDUE (+3 vs Wake Forest)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS: WESTERN KENTUCKY at Georgia (projections have line at WKU +32.4)
*CHECK OUT EARLY SEASON STABILITY PLAYS BELOW*
College Football Stability Score Plays for Week 2
If you were one of the many readers of the 2026 College Football Betting Guide, or alternatively, have been a VSiN subscriber for a while now. If so, you’re probably already familiar with the methodology Steve Makinen has successfully used for the last 13 years or so regarding college football Stability Scores heading into the start of each season. If not, in a nutshell, what these scores are is a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies he employs every year to find value early. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.
Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Week 0-3. Here are this week’s qualifying plays. There is a separate article on VSiN that goes in-depth about these plays and scores, with new studies conducted recently over the ever-changing landscape of the transfer portal in college football.
New head coaches are 102-164 SU and 121-143 ATS (45.8%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021 (10-10 SU and ATS last week)
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA ST, MICHIGAN, VIRGINIA TECH, PENN ST, S FLORIDA, CALIFORNIA, UCONN, MICHIGAN ST, KENTUCKY, N TEXAS, MEMPHIS, OHIO, TULANE, UCLA, IOWA ST, LSU, OREGON ST, OLE MISS, SACRAMENTO ST
New defensive coordinators are 175-211 SU and 177-202-7 ATS (46.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021 (8-13 SU but 12-7-2 ATS last week)
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA ST, MICHIGAN, EAST CAROLINA, PURDUE, VIRGINIA TECH, PENN ST, TEXAS AandM, S FLORIDA, BYU, PITTSBURGH, UCONN, TEXAS ST, ILLINOIS, E MICHIGAN, MISSISSIPPI ST, KENTUCKY, N TEXAS, MEMPHIS, BUFFALO, OHIO, MARSHALL, GEORGIA ST, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, NAVY, IOWA ST, SOUTHERN MISS, OREGON ST, AIR FORCE, SACRAMENTO ST, USC
Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 113-89 SU and 112-88-2 ATS (56%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021 (5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS last week)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): VIRGINIA TECH, USC, TEXAS AandM, UCLA, NOTRE DAME
In 2026, these are our new College Football Stability System(s):
Play on any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (344-231 SU and 310-253-12 ATS, 55.1% since 2013), including 8-7 SU and 7-8 ATS last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON, OKLAHOMA, TEMPLE, ARMY, SYRACUSE, MARYLAND, EASTERN MICHIGAN, MINNESOTA, UNLV, BOISE ST, FLA INTERNATIONAL, JACKSONVILLE ST, S ALABAMA, NEBRASKA, SAN DIEGO ST, IOWA, TEXAS TECH, FRESNO ST
AND
Play against any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (Fade record 269-146 SU and 226-184-4 ATS, 55.1% since 2013), including 9-8 SU and 8-9 ATS last week
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA ST, EAST CAROLINA, VIRGINIA TECH, PENN ST, S FLORIDA, CALIFORNIA, CONNECTICUT, MICHIGAN ST, NORTH TEXAS, MEMPHIS, BUFFALO, OHIO, TULANE, BOWLING GREEN, GEORGIA TECH, IOWA ST, LSU, OREGON ST, SACRAMENTO ST
College Football Game 2 Reactionary Systems
These systems take into account traits about a team’s season opener and how they affect their second game.
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #2 – FCS Game 2 foes not an easy rebound: Teams coming off a FBS loss in Game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over a FCS team in Game 2 have gone just 50-71-2 ATS (41.3%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NC STATE (-30.5 vs Richmond), LOUISVILLE (-36.5 vs Villanova), TCU (vs Grambling St), MIAMI OH (-30.5 vs Holy Cross), COASTAL CAROLINA (vs Fordham), TOLEDO (-33.5 vs Central Conn St), BAYLOR (vs Prairie View AandM), WISCONSIN (-38.5 vs W Illinois), LIBERTY (-25.5 vs Gardner Webb), W MICHIGAN (-25.5 vs Monmouth)
*WATCH FOR QUALIFYING LINE FOR WEEK 2 GAMES INVOLVING BALL ST, KENT ST, AKRON, ARKANSAS ST, N ILLINOIS, MISSOURI ST, UTEP, WYOMING, and C MICHIGAN AS WELL*
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #3 – FCS foes not adequate prep for conference play: Teams that are double-digit conference favorites in Game 2 after having just a FCS opening game under their belt have gone just 8-4 SU and 2-10 ATS (16.7%) over the last 13 seasons (1-3 ATS since 2024).
System Match (FADE): NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR BYU vs ARIZONA (-7.5 CURRENTLY)
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #4 – Home cooking not enough to revive struggling offense: Teams that scored 10 points or fewer in their season-opening losses of 17 points or more have responded with just a 49-63-2 ATS (43.8%) record when playing at home in Game 2 over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NC STATE (-30.5 vs Richmond), FRESNO ST (-18.5 vs Sac St), N ILLINOIS (vs Illinois St), MARSHALL (-13.5 vs Middle Tenn St), EAST CAROLINA (-7.5 vs Appalachian St), CLEMSON (-20.5 vs GA Southern), UTEP (vs Texas Southern), MISSOURI ST (vs Lindenwood), KENT ST (-11.5 vs Wofford), BALL ST (vs Stony Brook), C MICHIGAN (-23.5 vs Colgate), TEXAS ST (-1.5 vs UTSA)
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #5 – Oddsmakers don’t have a true grasp on some teams early: Teams whose lines swing grossly huge amounts from Game 1 to Game 2 have performed predictably, with 52 points being the benchmark. Those teams whose lines are 52-points or more worse in Game 2 than their opener are on a 42-21 ATS (66.7%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OLD DOMINION (+19.5 at Virginia Tech), ARIZONA ST (+14.5 at Texas A&M), RICE (+44.5 at Notre Dame), DELAWARE (+20.5 or worse at Vanderbilt), SOUTHERN MISS (+32.5 or worse at Auburn), LA TECH (+35.5 at LSU), OHIO ST (+1.5 or worse at Texas), CHARLOTTE (+47.5 at Ole Miss), ARKANSAS (+11.5 or worse at Utah)
*WATCH FOR: UCF (if they get to +8.5 at Pitt), KANSAS (if they get to +7.5 vs Mizzou), SAN DIEGO ST (if they get to +13.5 at UCLA), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (if they get to +23.5 at Clemson), LA LAFAYETTE (if they get to +31.5 at USC)
Teams whose lines are >=52 points better than the opener have gone just 23-30-2 ATS (43.4%) over the last 13 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALL ST (-14.5 vs Stony Brook), AKRON (-27.5 vs Robert Morris), UMASS (-22.5 or higher favorite vs Sacred Heart), W MICHIGAN (-24.5 or higher favorite vs Monmouth), MISSOURI ST (-19.5 vs Lindenwood), WISCONSIN (-38.5 vs W Illinois), COASTAL CAROLINA (-31 or higher favorite vs Fordham), UTEP (-11.5 or higher favorite vs Texas Southern)
*WATCH FOR: ARKANSAS ST (if they get to -41.5 vs W Georgia), BAYLOR (if they get to -45.5 vs Prairie View A&M)
College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll
CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 221-115 SU and 192-135-9 ATS (58.7%).
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-1.5 vs Ohio St)
CFB Ranked Team System #7: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 90-59 Under the total (60.4%) dating back to October 2016.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ARIZONA-BYU (spread BYU -7.5, total 47.5)
CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 120-30 SU but just 62-84-4 ATS (42.5%) since December of 2015.
System Match (FADE): LOUISVILLE (-36.5 vs Villanova)
CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread are on a 224-53 SU and 158-116-3 ATS (57.7%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON (-22.5 at Oklahoma St), SMU (-25.5 vs UC Davis), OLE MISS (-47.5 vs Charlotte)
College Football Conference Play Systems and Trends
These detail top trends and systems for college football conference play.
* NAVY is on a 32-11 ATS (74.4%) run in conference games when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-4.5 at FAU)
Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems
Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 43-71 SU and 41-69-4 ATS (37.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): RUTGERS (+3 at Boston College), CHARLOTTE (+47.5 at Ole Miss)
Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 152-193-1 ATS (44.1%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): RUTGERS (+3 at Boston College), UMASS (-23.5 vs Sacred Heart)
Prolific offensive performances don’t last
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 32-47 ATS (40.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): MISSISSIPPI ST (+1.5 at Minnesota)
Dismal offensive performances carry over
College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 26-35-1 ATS (42.6%) in their last 62 tries.
System Match (FADE): MISSOURI ST (-19.5 vs Lindenwood)
Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
Over the course of the last thirteen years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 151-113 ATS (57.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LOUISIANA TECH, VIRGINIA TECH, UCF, KANSAS ST, ARIZONA ST, SYRACUSE, BYU, GEORGIA, MARYLAND, MINNESOTA, ARMY, TEXAS
Top College Football Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
Friday, September 11, 2026
* LOUISVILLE is 9-15 (37.5%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): LOUISVILLE (-36.5 vs Villanova)
* NC STATE is 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in Non-Conference games in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NC STATE (-30.5 vs Richmond)
* BOSTON COLLEGE is 34-16 (68%) ATS vs Non-Conference opponents since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (-3 vs Rutgers)
* RUTGERS is 29-12 (70.7%) to the Under in road games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): RUTGERS-BOSTON COLLEGE (o/u at 54.5)
* MISSOURI is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in Road/Neutral games in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSOURI (-5.5 at Kansas)
* KANSAS is 42-29-1 (59.2%) Over the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MISSOURI-KANSAS (o/u at 50.5)
Saturday, September 12, 2026
* AKRON is 18-32-1 (36%) ATS at home since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (-27.5 vs Robert Morris)
* ARIZONA is 20-33 (37.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+7.5 at BYU)
* ARIZONA ST is 31-17-1 (64.6%) ATS as underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA ST (+14.5 at Texas A&M)
* ARKANSAS is 4-16 (20%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): ARKANSAS (+12.5 at Utah)
* BALL STATE is 41-28-1 (59.4%) Under the total over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STONY BROOK-BALL ST (o/u at 57.5)
* BOISE STATE is on a 14-4 (77.8%) ATS run following a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE ST (-8.5 vs Memphis)
* BOWLING GREEN is 20-32 (38.5%) ATS as underdog since 2019
* NEBRASKA is 9-17-3 (34.6%) ATS at home in the last 29
Trends Match: 1 FADE BOWLING GREEN, 1 FADE NEBRASKA
* CALIFORNIA is 31-20 (60.8%) ATS as underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+3.5 at Syracuse)
* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 8-14 ATS (36.4%) as a Favorite in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-23.5 vs Colgate)
* CLEMSON is 14-7 (66.7%) ATS in the last 21 following up a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-20.5 vs GA Southern)
* DUKE is 33-20 (62.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): DUKE (+6 at Illinois)
* EASTERN MICHIGAN is 42-21 (66.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+17.5 at Michigan St)
* FLORIDA is 11-18-1 (37.9%) ATS in Non-Conference games in the last seven seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA (-49.5 vs Campbell)
* FRESNO ST is 41-24-1 (63.1%) Under the total since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SACRAMENTO ST-FRESNO ST (o/u at 45.5)
* GEORGIA ST is 22-14-1 (61.1%) ATS in the last 37 road/neutral games
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA ST (+9.5 at Kennesaw St)
* HAWAII is 14-27 (34.1%) ATS as favorite since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): HAWAII (-7.5 vs New Mexico St)
* IOWA ST is 19-8 (70.4%) ATS as underdog since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): IOWA ST (+14 at Iowa)
* JAMES MADISON is 31-18 (63.3%) ATS as favorite since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-45.5 vs Wagner)
* LOUISIANA TECH is 42-31-1 (57.5%) Over the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LOUISIANA TECH-LSU (o/u at 55.5)
* MARYLAND is 19-9 (67.9%) ATS in the last 28 Non-Conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): MARYLAND (-12.5 at UConn)
* UMASS is 0-8 (0%) ATS in the last eight games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): UMASS (-23.5 vs Sacred Heart)
* MIAMI (OH) is on a 42-29-1 (59.2%) Under the total run over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOLY CROSS-MIAMI (OH) (o/u at 49.5)
* NEW MEXICO is 10-21 (32.3%) ATS as favorite since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): NEW MEXICO (-40.5 vs Mercyhurst)
* NORTH CAROLINA is 3-9-1 (25%) ATS in the last 13 as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): NORTH CAROLINA (-34.5 vs ETSU)
* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 6-25-2 (19.4%) ATS in the last 33 home games
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+4.5 vs Illinois St)
* OLE MISS is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) in Non-Conference games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (-47.5 vs Charlotte)
* OREGON ST is 30-14 (68.2%) ATS in Home games over the last seven seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OREGON ST (+26.5 vs Texas Tech)
* PENN ST is 37-23 (61.7%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN ST (-24.5 at Temple)
* PITTSBURGH is 48-28 (63.2%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UCF-PITT (o/u at 57.5)
* PURDUE is 7-20 ATS (25.9%) at home over the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PURDUE (+3 vs Wake Forest)
* SOUTH ALABAMA is 19-40 (32.2%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2014
* TULANE is 52-29-1 (64.2%) ATS as favorite since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): TULANE (-9.5 vs S Alabama)
* SAN DIEGO ST is 53-31 (63.1%) Under the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SDSU-UCLA (o/u at 54.5)
* UCLA is 10-22 (31.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): UCLA (-12.5 vs SDSU)
* SOUTH CAROLINA is 18-10 (64.3%) ATS as a favorite in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-43.5 vs Towson)
* TENNESSEE is 18-8 (69.2%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-12.5 at GA Tech)
* TULSA is 27-15-1 (64.3%) ATS in Road/Neutral games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (-14 at Sam Houston St)
* UAB is 22-13 (62.9%) ATS at home since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): UAB (-10 vs UL Monroe)
* UNLV is 27-9 (75%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2017
* UNLV is on a 24-12 (66.7%) ATS run following a SU win
Trends Match (PLAY): UNLV (-3.5 at North Texas)
* USC is 36-19 ATS (65.5%) Over the total in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LA LAFAYETTE-USC (o/u at 59.5)
* UTAH ST is 7-18 ATS (28%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons
* WASHINGTON is 4-10 ATS (28.6%) following SU wins since 2024
Trends Match: 1 FADE UTAH ST, 1 FADE WASHINGTON
* UTEP is 9-25 (26.5%) ATS at home since 2020
* UTEP is 11-27 ATS (28.9%) in Non-Conference games since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): UTEP (vs Texas Southern)
* UTSA is 16-7 (69.6%) ATS in L23 as a single-digit underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): UTSA (+1.5 at Texas St)
* VIRGINIA TECH is 8-24 (25%) ATS in the last 32 games following up a SU win
* VIRGINIA TECH is 7-23 ATS (23.3%) in Non-Conference games since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): VIRGINIA TECH (-19.5 vs Old Dominion)
* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 22-14 ATS (61.1%) at home in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (-41.5 vs UT Martin)
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
OREGON ST is 17-33 SU but 29-20 ATS (59.2%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): OREGON ST (+26.5 vs Texas Tech)
Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 230-182 ATS (55.8%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (+13.5 at Marshall), UT-SAN ANTONIO (+1.5 at Texas St)
Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(313) RUTGERS at (314) BOSTON COLLEGE
Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the Scarlet Knights-Eagles series
Trend Match (PLAY): RUTGERS (+3 at Boston College)
(321) APPALACHIAN ST at (322) EAST CAROLINA
Favorites have won and covered the last four meetings between App State and ECU
Trend Match (PLAY): EAST CAROLINA (-7 vs Appalachian St)
(339) ARIZONA at (340) BYU
BYU is 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight of the series with Arizona
Trend Match (PLAY): BYU (-7.5 vs Arizona)
(357) ALABAMA at (358) KENTUCKY
Road teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Bama-UK set
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-10.5 at Kentucky)
(383) SAN DIEGO ST at (384) UCLA
UCLA is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven matchups with SDSU
Trend Match (PLAY): UCLA (-12.5 vs San Diego St)
(389) IOWA ST at (390) IOWA
Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Cyclone-Hawkeye in-state rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IOWA ST-IOWA (o/u at 40.5)
(395) OHIO ST at (396) TEXAS
Under the total has converted in the last four meetings between Ohio St and Texas
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OHIO ST-TEXAS (o/u at 49.5)
(409) NEW MEXICO ST at (410) HAWAII
Road teams are 3-5 SU but 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the NMSU-Hawaii set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO ST (+7.5 at Hawaii)
Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 603-666 ATS (47.5%). This angle has produced consistently over the last four seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in four straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): RUTGERS, KANSAS, ARMY, KANSAS ST, OKLAHOMA, OREGON, PURDUE, PENN ST, VIRGINIA TECH, GEORGIA, DUKE, E MICHIGAN, MINNESOTA, NOTRE DAME, PITTSBURGH, SYRACUSE, UAB, WASHINGTON, TEXAS ST, DELAWARE, MIDDLE TENN ST, NEBRASKA, TULANE, UCLA, NAVY, LSU, AUBURN, FRESNO ST, NEW MEXICO ST, USC
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 252-268 ATS (48.5%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%. In 2024, it was 46.6%. Last year, it was 6-games over-.500. I personally believe that performance will prove to be a fluke. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page >75%, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): VIRGINIA TECH, GEORGIA, BYU, NOTRE DAME, PITTSBURGH, UAB, WASHINGTON, NEBRASKA, UCLA, CLEMSON, LSU, OLE MISS, FRESNO ST, USC
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 370-411 ATS (47.4%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA, OREGON, PENN ST, MARYLAND, TENNESSEE, TULSA, NAVY, N DAKOTA ST
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 68%+ majority of the handle was on small home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 84-66 ATS (56%). Bettors are wisely valuing home-field advantage in these games that are expected to be competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARMY, MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH, SYRACUSE, OHIO
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 154-138-1 ATS (52.7%). This is a pretty good percentage for a high-volume simple based system, and a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): RUTGERS, APPALACHIAN ST, DUKE, E MICHIGAN, DELAWARE, BUFFALO, MIDDLE TENN ST, OHIO ST, NEW MEXICO ST
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past four seasons, this majority group has gone 154-134 ATS (53.5%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): RUTGERS, APPALACHIAN ST, BUFFALO, IOWA ST, OHIO ST, NEW MEXICO ST
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their record since the start of 2022 is 292-240 (54.9%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): RUTGERS, MISSOURI
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 90-71 ATS (55.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA, NOTRE DAME, NEBRASKA, LSU, AUBURN, USC
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 67-51 (56.8%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 118 of 3,173 games.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHARLOTTE-OLE MISS
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 69-53 (56.6%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): S FLORIDA-ARMY, WASHINGTON ST-KANSAS ST, OKLAHOMA-MICHIGAN, BUFFALO-FLA INTERNATIONAL, IOWA ST-IOWA, SACRAMENTO ST-FRESNO ST
CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2022 season, majority handle bettors have been quite sharp in two different contrarian ways for betting totals in Non-Conference games. When all majorities have favored Unders in totals of 55 or higher, they have gone 45-29 (60.8%). When greater than 80% majorities have gone behind Overs for totals of less than 55, they’ve gone 61-35 (63.5%). These are very good performance levels, again going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WAKE FOREST-PURDUE, PENN ST-TEMPLE, ARIZONA ST-TEXAS A&M, RICE-NOTRE DAME, DELAWARE-VANDERBILT, MEMPHIS-BOISE ST, JACKSONVILLE ST-OHIO, BOWLING GREEN-NEBRASKA, GEORGIA ST-KENNESAW ST, SAN DIEGO ST-UCLA, TEXAS TECH-OREGON ST, ARKANSAS-UTAH
UNDER – MIDDLE TENN ST-MARSHALL
This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MICHIGAN +5.5 (+5.4)
2. UCONN +12.5 (+4.7)
3(tie). BUFFALO +10.5 (+4.5)
GEORGIA TECH +12.5 (+4.5)
AIR FORCE +2.5 (+4.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NAVY -5.5 (+6.3)
2. IOWA -14 (+5.8)
3. HAWAII -7.5 (+5.2)
4. PITTSBURGH -7 (+5.0)
5. UNLV -3 (+3.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. W KENTUCKY +40.5 (+8.1)
2. LOUISIANA TECH +35.5 (+7.0)
3. KENTUCKY +10.5 (+5.8)
4. BOWLING GREEN +29.5 (+5.4)
5. TEMPLE +23.5 (+5.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TEXAS -1.5 (+4.9)
2. OREGON -22.5 (+4.4)
3. SYRACUSE -3.5 (+4.3)
4. VANDERBILT -21 (+3.4)
5. HAWAII -7.5 (+3.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ARKANSAS-UTAH OVER 54.5 (+4.0)
2. PENN ST-TEMPLE OVER 49.5 (+3.0)
3. ALABAMA-KENTUCKY OVER 49.5 (+2.9)
4. ARIZONA ST-TEXAS A&M OVER 50.5 (+2.8)
5. DELAWARE-VANDERBILT OVER 54.5 (+2.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OREGON-OKLAHOMA ST UNDER 57.5 (-6.2)
2. RICE-NOTRE DAME UNDER 55.5 (-5.0)
3. ARIZONA-BYU UNDER 47.5 (-4.0)
4. W KENTUCKY-GEORGIA UNDER 55.5 (-3.6)
5. SAN DIEGO ST-UCLA UNDER 54.5 (-3.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO +10.5 (+6.6)
2(tie). BOWLING GREEN +29.5 (+5.0)
OREGON ST +26.5 (+5.0)
4. AIR FORCE +2.5 (+4.8)
5. UTSA +1.5 (+4.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NAVY -5.5 (+6.4)
2. IOWA -14 (+5.7)
3. PITTSBURGH -7 (+4.5)
4. MARSHALL -13.5 (+3.8)
5. UAB -10 (+3.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MISSOURI-KANSAS OVER 50.5 (+12.3)
2. S FLORIDA-ARMY OVER 46.5 (+11.0)
3. ARKANSAS-UTAH OVER 54.5 (+9.7)
4. OHIO ST-TEXAS OVER 48.5 (+8.2)
5. ARIZONA ST-TEXAS A&M OVER 50.5 (+7.9)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE-OLE MISS UNDER 60.5 (-4.3)
2. RICE-NOTRE DAME UNDER 55.5 (-3.8)
3. OREGON-OKLAHOMA ST UNDER 57.5 (-3.7)
4. TEXAS TECH-OREGON ST UNDER 53.5 (-2.6)
5. UCF-PITTSBURGH UNDER 56.5 (-2.4)
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