Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Sunday, September 13 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Nooni (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Nooni
2. Roswell
3. Look Forward
NOONI two summers ago was the 4-5 favorite for the G1 DMR Debutante. She fell apart in that race and never regained her form through the 2yo season. But given that baseline ability, I could easily see her continuing to improve in her third start back from an extended layoff. I think she gets a perfect trip outside a couple dueling speeds, one of whom is her stablemate. ROSWELL very much looked like a horse at the end of her last form cycle who was worn out and could use a freshening – which she now has gotten. At her best, which we might well see, she can contend. Highly doubt we’re seeing anything like LOOK FORWARD’s best first start back from a 13-month break. She won the 8 Belles on this track but really only had that little flash during a couple months that would make her a deserving short-ish favorite here.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Sunday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Extra Benefits
2. Take That Girl
3. Midnight Escapade
EXTRA BENEFITS was blah in her debut and I was just about to X out the Ellis replay past the wire when — was that Extra Benefits galloping out almost with the winner? It was, and that might have been a noteworthy late-race wakeup call. Stretch to a mile could help. TAKE THAT GIRL, after showing a touch of speed, showed so little first time out that one might give her a second look on the class drop with blinkers off. MIDNIGHT ESCAPADE figures favored dropping out of straight MSWs. It’s the class drop alone that would have to do it – she was just out there spinning her wheels in both starts.
Second Race
1. Light the Way
2. Dr Ruben M
3. Classic Car Wash
LIGHT THE WAY lost his form in March and April but was back on song when last seen June 28. Sure, he’s down from the $100K last claim price paid, but did you note the $89,000 purse in this $62.5K claimer? Maybe I’m missing something, but I think he outfoots DR RUBEN M for the lead and sails all the way home at a distance that should suit. That said, Ruben did hit the line well, easily winning at 6 1/2f over somewhat lesser foes last time. Think he stays, think he fits, think he comes close to running that race again. CLASSIC CAR WASH, on the other hand, I’m not so sure – just raced Aug. 27, and the quick turnaround is a question.
Third Race
1. Creative Quality
2. Campaign Promises
3. Miranda’s Rocky
CREATIVE QUALITY should sit a perfect trip perched just behind a fast, contested pace, and, while facing somewhat easier, really found herself last out in first start for trainer G Garcia, who is having a down year percentage-wise. Garcia has a second entrant, CAMPAIGN PROMISES, who got what anthropomorphists might term a “confidence builder” dropped down to $5K last out. Longer-term performance and class level sits closer to this race than the last one. They are long since “out” on the $20K claim of MIRANDA’S ROCKY last November. Freshened and dropped by barn that had an opening-day winner.
Fourth Race
1. King Lee
2. Flaming Rainbow
3. Bullfight
KING LEE holds firm for $50K maidens on the barn change, and all three of his races earlier this year hint at a developing horse eventually capable of something better. I think the move to turf could bring that out – heavy grass influence in the immediate female family. They ran him 1 1/2 miles third time out, so you’d have to think he has little trouble with the 9f here. FLAMING RAINBOW takes second more as a dirt pick than turf. Hasn’t been on grass, and while class dropping, nothing in his first two races stands out, nor is this a turf-leaning pedigree in any real sense. BULLFIGHT got revved up too late to make much of an impact last out at Ellis. The added distance will help and while he’s not going to live up to that $410K purchase price, there could be a little more still there.
Sixth Race
1. E Tee Aye
2. High Speed Reed
3. Clever Miss
Liked E TEE AYE’s works into her career debut, which was pretty good, all things considered. Might not have really cared for the slop, and just seemed to get a little tired when flattening out mildly the final furlong. Seemingly aimed at this mile ever since, and I think she’ll appreciate the added ground – though there are many ways to go in this deep field. HIGH SPEED REED did run up on heels and check going into the far turn, but she recovered going around the bend and just was getting badly outrun through the homestretch by the top two finishers – until she wasn’t. Found very late spark and galloped out like more distance will help her. CLEVER MISS the second foal to race from the excellent racemare Untapable. Her first was no superstar, but workout video for this filly hints at a horse with plenty of ability.
Seventh Race
1. Real Macho
2. American Law
3. Gee No Hollander
REAL MACHO as a KY-bred runs for the full $60K purse here, which makes the drop to $20K after a $32K claim two back easy to swallow. Not a bad effort July 18 at Ellis – and that date carries some meaning. He’s kept on working right through, and one imagines the aim was this very spot. Consistently fast enough and doubt the rail draw does him in. AMERICAN LAW showed zero in his comeback race from several months off last month – I’ll guess he badly needed it and bounces back toward his established baseline, which very much slots competitively into this spot, and at a price. GEE NO HOLLANDER the 3-1 fave on the line, but didn’t he just hit a sudden peak May – July that he’s now gone past?
Eighth Race
1. Makutu
2. Taunting
3. Snare
MAKUTU second for this tag last summer facing nine in a DMR maiden, then won for $62.5K before going on the shelf and re-emerging on a different circuit for a new trainer. Sure they left him in the off-turf race May 26 just to get a race into the horse, but then when he ran so competitively, they figured why not just try him on dirt. Meh – had little finish in his second start this form cycle. Really looked to me like he couldn’t run his race over a sodden Ellis course last out. Should contend on firmer ground. TAUNTING won his maiden June 2025 at Hawthorne, hardly a hotbed of talent, and since has lost 12 straight, so while those competitive lines in higher-level races look competitive, I doubt he wins. Classic grinding type. SNARE has the right profile in a lot of respects but drew poorly and barely stays one mile, now tries 1 1/16.
Ninth Race
1. Just Bluffing
2. Spun Candy
3. Feminism
JUST BLUFFING ran right past the subsequent graded-stakes winner Goodall in her debut at FG, then was somewhat undone from post 1 in her second start, which led to a speed duel and late fade and was followed by — nothing. Just now gets back to racing, but I’d guess she comes back ready, though Post 1 once again presents a challenge. SPUN CANDY could get a decent setup and seemed to struggle last out with the Ellis surface. She’s run several Churchill races that put her in the mix at a price. FEMINISM, on the other hand, didn’t run well at all over the CD surface. More concerning is her inability in three starts to come close to a very impressive debut showing.
Tenth Race
1. C’s Today
2. Alworth
3. Big Jake
I’ll take C’S TODAY strong debut at face value and assume he repeats it. Couldn’t quite get past a well-meant Baffert maiden but should graduate right now if that performance was true. Sept. 4 work video for ALWORTH, who I guess debuts in blinkers and broke sharply enough in that gate drill to suggest he could take a decent position leaving from Post 1 here. The trainer has evolved into a steady winner with debut runners. Don’t think this Baffert maiden, BIG JAKE, is quite as good as the one who took down C’s Today last out.
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