College Football Pre-Christmas Bowl Game Betting Trends:
The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football bowl games before Christmas. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top college football betting trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 20-7 (74.1%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ALABAMA-OKLAHOMA (spread +1.5, total 40.5)
* Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are 76-34 Under the total (69.1%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIAMI (FL)-TEXAS A&M (o/u at 51.5), TULANE-OLE MISS (o/u at 56.5)
* NC STATE is 4-14 ATS (22.2%) in non-Conference games in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NC STATE (-6 vs Memphis)
* UTAH ST is 8-21 SU and 9-20 ATS (31%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (-3 vs Washington State)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: SOUTH FLORIDA -5.5 vs ODU (projections have line at USF -10.2)
College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll.
CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
· In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 219-113 SU and 191-132-9 ATS (59.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (+1.5 vs Alabama), TEXAS A&M (-3.5 vs Miami (FL)), OLE MISS (-17.5 vs Tulane), OREGON (-21.5 vs James Madison)
· Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 125-30 SU and 94-57-4 ATS (62.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (+1.5 vs Alabama), TEXAS A&M (-3.5 vs Miami (FL)), OLE MISS (-17.5 vs Tulane), OREGON (-21.5 vs James Madison)
· Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 65-27 SU and 58-31-3 ATS (65.2%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (+1.5 vs Alabama), TEXAS A&M (-3.5 vs Miami (FL))
CFB Ranked Team System #4: In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 43-21 (67.2%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 24-10 (70.6%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TULANE-OLE MISS (o/u at 56.5), JAMES MADISON-OREGON (o/u at 50.5)
CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top-10-ranked team are just 136-145 SU and 124-155-2 ATS (44.4%) in the next game since October of 2016.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-9.5 vs Boise St)
CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 224-52 SU and 158-115-3 ATS (57.9%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA (*if they become favored vs Alabama, +1.5 currently)
CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 63-24 SU and 54-32-1 ATS (62.8%) in the next game since November of 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ALABAMA (-1.5 at Oklahoma), TEXAS A&M (-3.5 vs Miami (FL))
CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 83-40 SU but just 52-69-2 ATS (43%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of 2015.
System Match (FADE): CALIFORNIA (-2.5 vs Hawaii)
CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 64-89 SU and 66-84-3 ATS (44%) since September 2019. These teams are also 76-34 Under the total (69.1%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (FL) (+3.5 at Texas A&M), TULANE (+17.5 at Ole Miss)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIAMI (FL)-TEXAS A&M (o/u at 51.5), TULANE-OLE MISS (o/u at 56.5)
College Football Conference Play Systems and Trends
These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.
* Over the total is 20-7 (74.1%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ALABAMA-OKLAHOMA (spread +1.5, total 40.5)
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
Best
* TULANE is 19-20 SU and 24-14 ATS (63.2%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (+17.5 at Ole Miss)
Worst
* UTAH STATE is 8-21 SU and 9-20 ATS (31%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH ST (-3 vs Washington St)
Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems
Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 152-192-1 ATS (44.2%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (FADE): LOUISVILLE (-9.5 vs Toledo)
Not taking advantage enough of turnovers can be a red flag
CFB FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 40-59 ATS (40.4%) in their next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TULANE (+17.5 at Ole Miss)
Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into two FBS opponents against one another.
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NAVY, NC STATE, OLE MISS, OREGON, WESTERN KENTUCKY
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the HOME side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%, and in 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OLE MISS, OREGON
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team.
System Match (FADE): ALABAMA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%).}
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI (FL)
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 seasons record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with less games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TROY, SOUTH FLORIDA, LA LAFAYETTE, MISSOURI STATE, WESTERN MICHIGAN, NC STATE, OKLAHOMA, UTAH STATE, LOUISVILLE, WESTERN KENTUCKY, UNLV, CALIFORNIA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ARMY-NAVY, TROY-JACKSONVILLE STATE, ALABAMA-OKLAHOMA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOLEDO-LOUISVILLE
College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON STATE +3.5 (+6.0)
2. HAWAII +2.5 (+4.8)
3. ARKANSAS STATE +2.5 (+3.3)
4. OKLAHOMA +1.5 (+2.5)
5. KENNESAW STATE +4 (+1.7)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SOUTH FLORIDA -5.5 (+4.7)
2. WASHINGTON -9.5 (+3.1)
3. NC STATE -5.5 (+2.4)
4. TROY -3.5 (+1.8)
5. UNLV -4.5 (+1.1)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HAWAII +2.5 (+6.4)
2. ARMY +6 (+4.6)
3. OKLAHOMA +1.5 (+3.5)
4(tie). ARKANSAS STATE +2.5 (+2.1)
KENNESAW STATE +4 (+2.1)
TOLEDO +9.5 (+2.1)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON -9.5 (+3.9)
2. OLE MISS -17.5 (+2.7)
3. OREGON -21.5 (+1.4)
4. UTAH STATE -3.5 (+0.8)
5. LA LAFAYETTE -3 (+0.7)
TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OLD DOMINION-SOUTH FLORIDA OVER 55.5 (+5.6)
2. TROY-JACKSONVILLE STATE OVER 46.5 (+3.6)
3. TOLEDO-LOUISVILLE OVER 44.5 (+2.7)
4. ALABAMA-OKLAHOMA OVER 40.5 (+1.5)
Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ARMY-NAVY UNDER 38.5 (-3.8)
2. BOISE STATE-WASHINGTON UNDER 52.5 (-3.6)
3. CALIFORNIA-HAWAII UNDER 55.5 (-1.9)
4. MEMPHIS-NC STATE UNDER 57.5 (-1.7)
5. UNLV-OHIO UNDER 62.5 (-1.5)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SOUTHERN MISS +4 (+6.0)
2. OKLAHOMA +1.5 (+4.7)
3. MEMPHIS +5.5 (+4.3)
4. JAMES MADISON +21.5 (+4.2)
5. HAWAII +2.5 (+3.8)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON -9.5 (+4.6)
2. SOUTH FLORIDA -5.5 (+3.5)
3. LA LAFAYETTE -3 (+3.3)
4. TEXAS A&M -3.5 (+1.7)
5. MISSOURI STATE -2.5 (+0.2)
Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ALABAMA-OKLAHOMA OVER 40.5 (+3.6)
2. OLD DOMINION-SOUTH FLORIDA OVER 55.5 (+2.8)
3. TROY-JACKSONVILLE STATE OVER 46.5 (+2.5)
4. JAMES MADISON-OREGON OVER 50.5 (+2.1)
5. MIAMI (FL)-TEXAS A&M OVER 51.5 (+1.9)
Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON STATE-UTAH STATE UNDER 52.5 (-3.1)
2. CALIFORNIA-HAWAII UNDER 55.5 (-2.7)
3. UNLV-OHIO UNDER 52.5 (-2.2)
4. MISSOURI STATE-ARKANSAS ST UNDER 56.5 (-2.0)
5. BOISE STATE-WASHINGTON UNDER 52.5 (-0.2)
Top College Football Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* TOLEDO is 8-1 ATS (88.9%) in the last nine games as an Underdog
* LOUISVILLE is 8-14 (36.4%) ATS in non-Conference games since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): TOLEDO (+9.5 vs Louisville)
* NC STATE is 4-14 ATS (22.2%) in non-Conference games in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NC STATE (-6 vs Memphis)
* OLE MISS is 18-7 ATS (72%) in non-Conference games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (-17.5 vs Tulane)
* TROY is 24-7 (77.4%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (-3.5 vs Jacksonville St)
* TULANE is 15-7 (68.2%) to the Over in the last 22 games vs ranked opponents
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TULANE-OLE MISS (o/u at 56.5)
* UNLV is 27-7 (79.4%) ATS in non-Conference games since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (-4.5 vs Ohio)
* UTAH STATE is 7-17 ATS (29.2%) in road/neutral games over last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH ST (-3 vs Washington State)
* WASHINGTON is 2-10 ATS (16.7%) in road/neutral games since 2024
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-9.5 vs Boise State)
Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(197) BOISE STATE vs (198) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON has covered all six meetings with Boise State since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-9.5 vs Boise State)
(295) ALABAMA at (296) OKLAHOMA
* Underdogs are 6-0 ATS in the Bama-Oklahoma series since 2002
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA (+1.5 vs Alabama)
(293) TULANE at (294) MISSISSIPPI
* OLE MISS is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in meetings with Tulane since 2000
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (-17.5 vs Tulane)
