The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 14. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Favorites are 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS in the last 16 of TOL-CMU series
Trend Match (PLAY): TOLEDO (-10.5 at Central Michigan)

* Teams with winning records and scoring 24 PPG or fewer have gone just 20-20 SU and 12-29 ATS (29.3%) in their season finale games.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): COASTAL CAROLINA (+22.5 vs. James Madison), LSU (+10 at Oklahoma), NORTHWESTERN (+7 at Illinois), MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs. Wisconsin), CALIFORNIA (+12.5 vs. SMU)

* HOME UNDERDOGS of > 10 points in Tues/Wed Night MACtion have gone Over the total at a 15-4-1 (78.9%) rate since 2016
System Matches (PLAY OVER): BOWLING GREEN-UMASS (spread +14.5, total 44.5)

* Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 50-31 ATS (61.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (+13.5 vs. Georgia), MARYLAND (+4 vs. Michigan State)

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a top 15-ranked team are 118-86 SU but just 87-116-1 ATS (42.9%) in the follow-up game dating back to November 2016.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+7 vs. Miami FL)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 6-24-2 (20%) ATS in the last 32 home games
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-4.5 vs. Kent State)

* UTAH STATE is 8-20 SU and ATS (28.6%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+3 vs. Boise State)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings: GEORGIA STATE +26.5 at OLD DOMINION (projections have line at Georgia State +19.7)

Systems for college football regular-season finale games

These are betting systems involving teams playing in their regular-season finale games.

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #1: Since 2015, home favorites of more than 20 points are 59-6 SU but just 26-39 ATS (40%) in season finale games.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): INDIANA (-28.5 at Purdue), NORTH TEXAS (-20.5 vs. Temple), TEXAS TECH (-23.5 at West Virginia), OLD DOMINION (-26.5 vs. Georgia State), JAMES MADISON (-22.5 at Coastal Carolina), SOUTH FLORIDA (-27.5 vs. Rice), TULANE (-30.5 vs. Charlotte), NOTRE DAME (-32.5 at Stanford), USC (-20.5 vs. UCLA)

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #2: Since 2015, home underdogs of seven points or more are just 23-134 SU and 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season finale games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+7 vs. Western Michigan), MASSACHUSETTS (+14.5 vs. Bowling Green), MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7 vs. Ole Miss), KANSAS (+13.5 vs. Utah), PURDUE (+28.5 vs. Indiana), WEST VIRGINIA (+23.5 vs. Texas Tech), COASTAL CAROLINA (+22.5 vs. James Madison), MICHIGAN (+10 vs. Ohio State), PITTSBURGH (+7 vs. Miami), RUTGERS (+11.5 vs. Penn State), CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+10.5 vs. Toledo), SAM HOUSTON (+10 vs. FIU), OKLAHOMA STATE (+14 vs. Iowa State), CALIFORNIA (+12.5 vs. SMU), STANFORD (+32.5 vs. Notre Dame), NEVADA (+7.5 vs. UNLV)

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #3: In season finale games since 2015, teams scoring more than 43 PPG are 36-9 SU and 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) versus teams scoring less.
System Match (PLAY): NORTH TEXAS (-20.5 vs. Temple)

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #4: In season finale games since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 88-12 SU and 61-38-1 ATS (61.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OLE MISS (-7 at Mississippi State), UTAH (-13.5 at Kansas), INDIANA (-28.5 at Purdue), TEXAS TECH (-23.5 at West Virginia), JAMES MADISON (-22.5 at Coastal Carolina), ALABAMA (-5.5 at Auburn), FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-10 at Sam Houston), MISSOURI (-2.5 at Arkansas), IOWA STATE (-14 at Oklahoma State), FRESNO STATE (-2.5 at San Jose State), NOTRE DAME (-32.5 at Stanford), KENNESAW STATE (-2.5 at Liberty), UNLV (-7.5 at Nevada)

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #5: An intriguing regular-season finale angle involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 27-56 SU but 45-36-2 ATS (55.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): BUFFALO (+6.5 vs. Ohio U), MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7 vs. Ole Miss), KANSAS (+13.5 vs. Utah), KENTUCKY (+3.5 at Louisville), RICE (+27.5 at South Florida), AUBURN (+5.5 vs. Alabama), BAYLOR (-2.5 vs. Houston), UCF (+17.5 at BYU), TEMPLE (+20.5 at North Texas)

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #6: College football season finale underdogs of four points or more that have a better record than their opponent have gone just 5-20 SU and 8-17 ATS (32%) in their last 25 tries.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): KENT STATE (+4.5 at Northern Illinois), MARYLAND (+4 at Michigan State)

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #7: Some of the best season-finale types of teams to fade have been the winning teams that don’t score a lot, as teams with winning records and scoring 24 PPG or fewer have gone just 20-20 SU and 12-29 ATS (29.3%) in their season finale games.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): COASTAL CAROLINA (+22.5 vs. James Madison), LSU (+10 at Oklahoma), NORTHWESTERN (+7 at Illinois), MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs. Wisconsin), CALIFORNIA (+12.5 vs. SMU)

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #8: College football season finale games expected to be defensive slugfests have been just that, as of the last 21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-5-1 (76.2%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IOWA-NEBRASKA UNDER 39.5, LSU-OKLAHOMA UNDER 37.5, WISCONSIN-MINNESOTA UNDER 37.5. Several others have totals in the low 40s as of Monday afternoon.

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll 

CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams

In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 217-110 SU and 189-129-9 ATS (59.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+2.5 vs. Texas A&M), MICHIGAN (+10 vs. Ohio State), PITTSBURGH (+7 vs. Miami FL), TENNESSEE (-3 vs. Vanderbilt)

CFB Ranked Team System #2 – Road ranked teams vs. non-ranked hosts: In games week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 141-36 SU and 98-76-3 ATS (56.3%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than six points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 120-17 SU and 77-57-3 ATS (57.5%) in that same week 12 and later time span.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OLE MISS, UTAH, INDIANA, TEXAS TECH, OREGON, JAMES MADISON, ALABAMA, SMU, NOTRE DAME

CFB Ranked Team System #3 – Home ranked teams vs. non-ranked visitors: In games week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 128-14 SU but just 60-76-2 ATS (44.1%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 45-12 SU and 34-23 ATS (59.6%) since ’17.
System Matches: PLAY ALL SMALLER FAVORITES/UNDERDOGS – OKLAHOMA, VIRGINIA
FADE ALL BIG FAVORITES – NORTH TEXAS, BYU, TULANE, USC

CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 350-27 SU but just 166-207-4 ATS (44.5%) versus unranked conference opponents since October ’15.

System Matches (FADE ALL): NORTH TEXAS, BYU, TULANE, USC

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a top 15-ranked team are 118-86 SU but just 87-116-1 ATS (42.9%) in the follow-up game dating back to November ’16.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+7 vs. Miami FL)

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of seven points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 222-52 SU and 157-115-2 ATS (57.7%) surge when favored in the next game since October of ’15.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (-11.5 at Kansas)

CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 62-23 SU and 53-31-1 ATS (63.1%) in the next game since November of ’21.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): USC (-21.5 vs. UCLA), GEORGIA TECH (+13.5 vs. Georgia)

CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 82-39 SU but just 51-68-2 ATS (42.9%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of ’15.
System Match (FADE): TCU (-3.5 vs. Cincinnati)

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 63-87 SU and 65-82-3 ATS (44.2%) since September 2019. These teams are also 73-34 Under the total (68.2%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+7 vs. Miami FL)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI FL-PITTSBURGH (o/u at 50.5)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 85-117 ATS (42.1%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON COLLEGE (-3 at Syracuse), ARMY (+7.5 at UTSA)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played for more than 14 days are on a 150-123 ATS (54.9%) surge since 2010.
System Match (PLAY): OREGON STATE (+13.5 at Washington State)

* Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 49-76 ATS (39.2%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): SYRACUSE (+3 vs. Boston College)

* BIG TEN HOME UNDERDOGS of >= 11.5 points in Weeks 11 or later in the season have gone Over the total at a 23-8 (74.2%) rate since 2017
System Match (PLAY OVER): PENN STATE-RUTGERS (spread +12.5, total 56.5)

* BIG 12 HOME UNDERDOGS of 23.5 points or more have gone 11-3 ATS (78.6%) since 2016
System Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (+24.5 vs. Texas Tech)

* AAC FAVORITES in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 115-17 SU and 75-51-6 (59.5%) ATS since 2015
System Matches (PLAY ALL): EAST CAROLINA (-7 at FAU), TULSA (-8.5 vs. UAB), UTSA (-7.5 vs. Army)

* OVER the total is 20-7 (74.1%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
System Match (PLAY OVER): TEXAS A&M-TEXAS (spread +2.5, total 51.5)

* UNDER the total is 69-47-1 (59.5%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOSTON COLLEGE-SYRACUSE (spread +3, total 52.5), WAKE FOREST-DUKE (spread -1.5, total 55.5)

* HOME UNDERDOGS of > 10-points in Tues/Wed Night MACtion have gone OVER the total at a 15-4-1 (78.9%) rate since 2016
System Matches (PLAY OVER): BOWLING GREEN-UMASS (spread +14.5, total 44.5)

* SUN BELT UNDERDOGS of 22 points or more are 22-10 (68.8%) ATS since 2015
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA STATE (+26.5 at Old Dominion), COASTAL CAROLINA (+22.5 vs. James Madison)

* SUN BELT SMALL HOME FAVORITES/PICK-’EMS in the PK to -5.5 line range and totals within the 52.5-65 range have had these totals go UNDER at a 43-20 (68.3%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ARKANSAS STATE-APPALACHIAN STATE (spread -2.5, total 55.5)

* UNDER the total is 56-34-1 (62.2%) in C-USA expected-tight matchups (-3 to +2.5 line range) since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LOUISIANA TECH-MISSOURI STATE (spread -2.5, total 51.5), KENNESAW STATE-LIBERTY (spread +2.5, total 54.5)

Negative FADE trends:

• USC has lost 15 of its last 21 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): USC (-22.5 vs. UCLA)

• ILLINOIS is on a 5-15 ATS skid as a conference home favorite
Trend Match (FADE): ILLINOIS (-7 vs. Northwestern)

• HAWAII is just 3-18 ATS in its last 21 conference games when favored by single digits
Trend Match (FADE): HAWAII (-7.5 at Wyoming)

• RUTGERS is on a 2-12 ATS skid as a Big Ten home underdog
Trend Match (FADE): RUTGERS (+12.5 vs. Penn State)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• TROY has won 12 of its last 15 Sun Belt road games ATS
• TROY is on a 19-5 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY): TROY (+6.5 at Southern Miss)

• PURDUE has a respectable 15-5 ATS record in its last 20 games as a Big Ten dog of 20+ points
Trend Match (PLAY): PURDUE (+28.5 vs. Indiana)

• NAVY is on a 31-10 ATS run in conference games when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (+5.5 at Memphis)

• GEORGIA STATE is on a solid road Sun Belt run of 15-7 ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+26.5 at Old Dominion)

• NORTHWESTERN is on a 13-2 ATS Big Ten run when coming off a close win of seven points or less
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTHWESTERN (+7 at Illinois)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best & worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. REVENGE is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only. 

Best College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)

* WISCONSIN is 12-10 SU and 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): WISCONSIN (+1.5 at Minnesota)

* COASTAL CAROLINA is 13-12 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): COASTAL CAROLINA (+22.5 vs. James Madison)

* KENTUCKY is 17-24 SU but 24-17 ATS (58.5%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+3 at Louisville)

* BUFFALO is 16-15 SU and 20-10-1 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+6.5 vs. Ohio)

* CALIFORNIA is 20-20 SU and 25-15 ATS (62.5%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+13.5 vs. SMU)

* SOUTH FLORIDA is 7-29 SU but 20-16 ATS (55.6%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH FLORIDA (-27.5 vs. Rice)

* TULSA is 12-25 SU but 22-14 ATS (61.1%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (-8.5 vs. UAB)

Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)

* MARSHALL is 13-9 SU and 9-13 ATS (40.9%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): MARSHALL (-7.5 vs. Georgia Southern)

* UTAH STATE is 8-20 SU and ATS (28.6%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+3 vs. Boise State)

* CINCINNATI is 11-14 SU and 9-16 ATS (36%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+4 at TCU)

College football Revenge Systems

Neutral field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 50-31 ATS (61.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (+13.5 vs. Georgia), MARYLAND (+4 vs. Michigan State)

Home/Road revenge line range angles that have thrived
Teams playing as huge underdogs at home in revenge games have been almost automatic covers, as those catching 30 points or more have gone 1-21 SU but 18-4 ATS (81.8%) in their last 22 tries.
System Match (PLAY): STANFORD (+32.5 vs. Notre Dame)
ALSO WATCH FOR PURDUE vs. INDIANA, +28.5 CURRENTLY

Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 52-45 ATS (53.6%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE (-10 at Michigan), FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-10 at Sam Houston State)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 117-130 ATS (47.4%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE (-10 at Michigan), LIBERTY (+2.5 vs. Kennesaw State)

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 114-22 SU and 85-46-5 ATS (64.9%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-10 at Sam Houston State), VIRGINIA (-10 vs. Virginia Tech)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 229-180 ATS (56%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MARSHALL (-7.5 vs. Georgia Southern), FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-10 at Sam Houston State), TULSA (-8.5 vs. UAB)

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems 

Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up game since 2012, going 101-71 ATS (58.7%).
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS A&M (-2.5 or worse at Texas)

Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
Over the last 12 years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 151-112 ATS (57.4%).
System Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-32.5 at Syracuse)

Playing well offensively but losing a good sign for next outing
College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 62-46-2 ATS (57.4%) over the last 12 years.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+6.5 vs. East Carolina), KANSAS STATE (-17.5 vs. Colorado)

Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last twelve years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 85-61 ATS (58.2%) in the follow-up game.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO STATE (-1.5 at New Mexico)

Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the ’25 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 6:30 PM ET on Monday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons, and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span would have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOWLING GREEN, WESTERN MICHIGAN, OHIO, IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, UTAH, BOISE STATE, TEXAS A&M, INDIANA, NORTH TEXAS, TEXAS TECH, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, KENTUCKY, OHIO STATE, PITTSBURGH, KANSAS STATE, IOWA STATE, DELAWARE, BYU, MARSHALL, OLD DOMINION, BOSTON COLLEGE, TULSA, LOUISIANA, DUKE, PENN STATE, OKLAHOMA, UTSA, TCU, MISSOURI, KENNESAW STATE, JAMES MADISON, SOUTH FLORIDA, VIRGINIA TECH, NORTHWESTERN, USC, SMU, UNLV, FRESNO STATE, NOTRE DAME, HAWAII

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023, it was 46.7%, in 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NORTH TEXAS, DELAWARE, BYU, MARSHALL, OLD DOMINION, TULSA, LOUISIANA, OKLAHOMA, HAWAII

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOWLING GREEN, WESTERN MICHIGAN, OHIO, IOWA, UTAH, SAN DIEGO STATE, BOISE STATE, TEXAS A&M, INDIANA, TEXAS TECH, OHIO STATE, TOLEDO, IOWA STATE, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, BOSTON COLLEGE, PENN STATE, MISSOURI, KENNESAW STATE, JAMES MADISON, ALABAMA, SMU, UNLV, FRESNO STATE, NOTRE DAME

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KENTUCKY, ARKANSAS STATE, MIDDLE TENN STATE, VANDERBILT, WISCONSIN, VIRGINIA TECH, NORTH CAROLINA, NORTHWESTERN

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in No. 4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, WISCONSIN

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOWLING GREEN, WESTERN MICHIGAN, MEMPHIS, OHIO, OLE MISS, IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, UTAH, AIR FORCE, GEORGIA, SAN DIEGO STATE, BOISE STATE, TEXAS A&M, INDIANA, ARIZONA STATE, NORTH TEXAS

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SOUTH FLORIDA, TULANE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2,364 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OLE MISS-MISSISSIPPI STATE, EAST CAROLINA-FLORIDA ATLANTIC, HOUSTON-BAYLOR, UAB-TULSA, SOUTH ALABAMA-TEXAS STATE, RICE-SOUTH FLORIDA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OHIO-BUFFALO, KENT STATE-NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AIR FORCE-COLORADO STATE, SAN DIEGO STATE-NEW MEXICO, BALL STATE-MIAMI OH, IOWA STATE-OKLAHOMA STATE, FRESNO STATE-SAN JOSE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN-EASTERN MICHIGAN, SAN DIEGO STATE-NEW MEXICO, CLEMSON-SOUTH CAROLINA, OHIO STATE-MICHIGAN, BALL STATE-MIAMI OH, LSU-OKLAHOMA, WISCONSIN-MINNESOTA

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARKANSAS STATE +2.5 (+5.2)
2. PITTSBURGH +7 (+3.7)
3 (tie). UTAH STATE +3.5 (+3.5)
SYRACUSE +3 (+3.5)
5. LIBERTY +2.5 (+3.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IOWA STATE -14 (+5.3)
2. OLE MISS -7 (+4.7)
3. AIR FORCE -1.5 (+4.0)
4 (tie). MISSOURI -2.5 (+3.9)
BYU -17.5 (+3.9)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GEORGIA STATE +26.5 (+6.8)
2. UTAH STATE +3.5 (+6.1)
3. RICE +27.5 (+5.9)
4. UCLA +22.5 (+5.6)
5. SYRACUSE +3 (+4.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH -11.5 (+6.6)
2. BYU -17.5 (+4.8)
3. TEXAS TECH -24.5 (+4.7)
4. BOWLING GREEN -14.5 (+4.0)
5. WASHINGTON STATE -13.5 (+3.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OHIO-BUFFALO OVER 44.5 (+8.5)
2. AIR FORCE-COLORADO STATE OVER 45.5 (+5.4)
3. FRESNO STATE-SAN JOSE STATE OVER 46.5 (+4.5)
4. WESTERN MICHIGAN-EASTERN MICHIGAN OVER 46.5 (+4.3)
5. OREGON-WASHINGTON OVER 51.5 (+3.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). NAVY-MEMPHIS UNDER 58.5 (-3.3)
SOUTH ALABAMA-TEXAS STATE UNDER 62.5 (-3.3)
3. MIDDLE TENN STATE-NEW MEXICO STATE UNDER 52.5 (-3.1)
4. OHIO STATE-MICHIGAN UNDER 44.5 (-2.9)
5. TEMPLE-NORTH TEXAS UNDER 65.5 (-2.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). SAN JOSE STATE +2.5 (+6.7)
CALIFORNIA +13.5 (+6.7)
3. UAB +8.5 (+6.2)
4. GEORGIA TECH +13.5 (+6.0)
5. COASTAL CAROLINA +22.5 (+5.9)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DUKE -1.5 (+9.7)
2. EAST CAROLINA -7 (+5.8)
3. LOUISVILLE -3 (+4.6)
4. IOWA -6 (+4.1)
5. OREGON -6.5 (+3.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OHIO-BUFFALO OVER 44.5 (+6.4)
2. AIR FORCE-COLORADO STATE OVER 45.5 (+5.2)
3. TOLEDO-CENTRAL MICHIGAN OVER 44.5 (+4.1)
4. OLE MISS-MISSISSIPPI STATE OVER 62.5 (+3.9)
5. WESTERN MICHIGAN-EASTERN MICHIGAN OVER 46.5 (+3.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches:
1. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-NEW MEXICO STATE UNDER 52.5 (-6.8)
2. GEORGIA SOUTHERN-MARSHALL UNDER 63.5 (-3.9)
3. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-SAM HOUSTON STATE UNDER 52.5 (-3.4)
4 (tie). FLORIDA STATE-FLORIDA UNDER 50.5 (-3.0)
LOUISIANA TECH-MISSOURI STATE UNDER 51.5 (-3.0)

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 9-26 ATS (25.7%) in its last 35 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-2.5 vs. Arkansas State)

* ARIZONA is 19-32 (37.3%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’16
* ARIZONA STATE is 30-16-1 (65.2%) ATS as an underdog since ’18
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA STATE (+1.5 vs. Arizona)

* BALL STATE is 41-26-1 (61.2%) Under the total over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALL STATE-MIAMI OH (o/u at 42.5)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 28-18 (60.9%) ATS in conference games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (-3 at Syracuse)

* BUFFALO is 23-15-1 (60.5%) ATS at home since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+6.5 vs. Ohio)

* CALIFORNIA is 30-18 (62.5%) ATS as an underdog since ’18
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+13.5 vs. SMU)

* CINCINNATI is 6-16 ATS (27.3%) as an underdog in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+4 at TCU)

* CLEMSON is 25-13 (65.8%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (+2.5 at South Carolina)

* COLORADO STATE is 18-6-1 to the Under (75%) in home games since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AIR FORCE-COLORADO STATE (o/u at 45.5)

* FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL is 18-31 (36.7%) in conference games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-10 at Sam Houston State)

* FLORIDA is 9-18-1 (33.3%) ATS in non-conference games in the last six seasons
* FLORIDA STATE is 11-25 (30.6%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’19
* FLORIDA STATE is 16-5 to the Under (76.2%) in the last 21 games as an underdog
Trends Match: 1 FADE of FLORIDA, 1 FADE of FLORIDA STATE, also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 50.5)

* FRESNO STATE is 39-23-1 (62.9%) Under the total since ’21
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): FRESNO STATE-SAN JOSE STATE (o/u at 46.5)

* GEORGIA is 25-16 (61%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-13.5 at Georgia Tech)

* GEORGIA STATE is 21-14-1 (60%) ATS in its last 36 road/neutral games
* OLD DOMINION is 12-23 (34.3%) ATS at home since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+26.5 at Old Dominion)

* HAWAII is 12-27 (30.8%) ATS as a favorite since ’15
Trend Match (FADE): HAWAII (-7.5 vs. Wyoming)

* JAMES MADISON is 30-17 (63.8%) ATS as a favorite since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-22.5 at Coastal Carolina)

* KANSAS is 42-27-1 (60.9%) Over the total since ‘19
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH-KANSAS (o/u at 60.5)

* KANSAS STATE is 13-7 ATS (65%) following a SU loss in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (-17.5 vs. Colorado)

* KENT STATE is 14-28 (33.3%) ATS in its last 42 games as an underdog
* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 6-24-2 (20%) ATS in its last 32 home games
Trends Match: 1 FADE of KENT STATE, 1 FADE of NORTHERN ILLINOIS

* LOUISVILLE is 7-14 (33.3%) ATS in non-conference games since ’21
* KENTUCKY is 21-8 (72.4%) ATS in non-conference games since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+3 at Louisville)

* LIBERTY is 26-10 (72.2%) ATS as an underdog since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): LIBERTY (+2.5 vs. Kennesaw State)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 40-30-1 (57.1%) Over the total since ‘19
* LOUISIANA TECH is 15-23 (39.5%) ATS in conference games over the last four seasons
Trends Match: FADE LOUISIANA TECH (+2.5 at Missouri State), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 51.5)

* LSU is 24-17 (58.5%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (+10 at Oklahoma)

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 40-27-1 (59.7%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALL STATE-MIAMI OH (o/u at 42.5)

* OLE MISS is 13-23-2 (36.1%) ATS in conference games since ’21
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 21-13 (61.8%) ATS at home since ’21
Trends Match (PLAY): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7 vs. Ole Miss)

* MISSOURI is 11-4 ATS (73.3%) in road/neutral games in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSOURI (-2.5 at Arkansas)

* NEBRASKA is 8-16-3 (33.3%) ATS at home in its last 27 games
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (+6 vs. Iowa)

* NEW MEXICO is 23-45 (33.8%) ATS in conference games since ’17
* NEW MEXICO is 23-12 (65.7%) Over the total in the last two seasons
* SAN DIEGO STATE is 52-29 (64.2%) Under the total since ’19
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (+1.5 vs. SDSU), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5)

* NOTRE DAME is 32-11 ATS (74.4%) in road/neutral games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-32.5 at Stanford)

* OHIO U is 26-14 ATS (65%) in conference games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-6.5 at Buffalo)

* PENN STATE is 36-22 (62.1%) ATS coming off a SU win since ’19
* PENN STATE is 11-3 (78.6%) ATS as a road favorite since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-12.5 at Rutgers)

* PITTSBURGH is 47-26 (64.4%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIAMI FL-PITTSBURGH (o/u at 50.5)

* PURDUE is 7-18 ATS (28%) at home over the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PURDUE (+28.5 vs. Indiana)

* RUTGERS is 10-2 to the Over (83.3%) as a home underdog since ‘21
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PENN STATE-RUTGERS (o/u at 56.5)

* SOUTH ALABAMA is 19-39 (32.8%) ATS coming off a SU win since ’14
Trend Match (FADE): SOUTH ALABAMA (+8.5 at Texas State)

* SOUTH CAROLINA is 17-9 (65.4%) ATS as a favorite in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-2.5 vs. Clemson)

* STANFORD is 9-20-1 (31%) ATS in the last 30 home games
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+32.5 vs. Notre Dame)

* TEMPLE is 23-12 (65.7%) ATS coming off a SU loss since ’20
* TEMPLE is 9-18 (33.3%) ATS in road games over the last four seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TEMPLE (+20.5 at North Texas)

* TULANE is 52-28-1 (65%) ATS as a favorite since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-29.5 vs. Charlotte)

* UAB is 6-18 (25%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): UAB (+8.5 at Tulsa)

* UNLV is on a 23-11 (67.6%) ATS run following a SU win
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (-7.5 at Nevada)

* USC is 34-17 ATS (66.7%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UCLA-USC (o/u at 59.5)

* WASHINGTON is 4-9 ATS (30.8%) following outright wins since 2024
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs. Oregon)

* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 22-12 ATS (64.7%) at home in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (+24.5 vs. Texas Tech)

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

Week 14

(317) MISSISSIPPI at (318) MISSISSIPPI STATE
* UNDERDOGS are on an 8-1-1 ATS run in the Rebels-Bulldogs rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7 vs. Ole Miss)

* UNDER the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the Egg Bowl series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OLE MISS-MISSISSIPPI STATE (o/u at 62.5)

(319) IOWA at (320) NEBRASKA
* UNDERDOGS are on a 6-0-1 ATS streak in the Cornhuskers-Hawkeyes series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEBRASKA (+6 vs. Iowa)

(325) ARIZONA at (326) ARIZONA STATE
* OVER the total is 11-2 in the last 13 games of the ASU-Arizona series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARIZONA-ARIZONA STATE (o/u at 48.5)

(327) AIR FORCE at (328) COLORADO STATE
* ROAD TEAMS are 8-0 ATS in AF-CSU rivalry since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): AIR FORCE (-1.5 at Colorado State)

(333) BOISE STATE at (334) UTAH STATE
* BOISE STATE is on an 8-0 SU and ATS run vs. Utah State
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-3 at Utah State)

(337) INDIANA at (338) PURDUE
* OVER the total is 8-0 in the last eight of this series in West Lafayette
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): INDIANA-PURDUE (o/u at 54.5)

(339) FLORIDA STATE at (340) FLORIDA
* ROAD TEAMS are 11-2 ATS in this series since ‘11
Trend Match (PLAY): FLORIDA STATE (+1.5 at Florida)

(353) KENTUCKY at (354) LOUISVILLE
* ROAD TEAMS are 11-5 SU and 13-3 ATS in this rivalry since 2008
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+3 at Louisville)

(357) CLEMSON at (358) SOUTH CAROLINA
* ROAD TEAMS are on 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS streak in the USC-Clemson series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (+2.5 at South Carolina)

(363) OHIO STATE at (364) MICHIGAN
* OVER the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of “The Game”
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OHIO STATE-MICHIGAN (o/u at 44.5)

(365) MARYLAND at (366) MICHIGAN STATE
* UNDER the total is 8-1-1 in this series since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MARYLAND-MICHIGAN STATE (o/u at 48.5)

(371) PENN STATE at (372) RUTGERS
* UNDER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of this series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PENN STATE-RUTGERS (o/u at 56.5)

(375) VIRGINIA TECH at (376) VIRGINIA
* VA TECH is 7-1 ATS in the last eight of in-state rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): VIRGINIA TECH (+10 at Virginia)

(377) TOLEDO at (378) CENTRAL MICHIGAN
* FAVORITES are 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS in the last 16 of the series
Trend Match (PLAY): TOLEDO (-10.5 at Central Michigan)

* UNDER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of this series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOLEDO-CENTRAL MICHIGAN (o/u at 44.5)

(387) ALABAMA at (388) AUBURN
* HOME TEAMS are on 8-0 ATS streak in Iron Bowl rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): AUBURN (+5.5 at Alabama)

(407) MISSOURI at (408) ARKANSAS
* HOME TEAMS are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): ARKANSAS (+2.5 vs. Missouri)

(413) NORTHWESTERN at (414) ILLINOIS
* OVER the total is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 of this rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NORTHWESTERN-ILLINOIS (o/u at 47.5)

(415) WISCONSIN at (416) MINNESOTA
* ROAD TEAMS are on 10-1 ATS surge in Paul Bunyan’s Axe rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): WISCONSIN (+1.5 at Minnesota)

(425) FRESNO STATE at (426) SAN JOSE STATE
* UNDER the total is 7-1 in the last eight of this series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): FRESNO STATE-SAN JOSE STATE (o/u at 46.5)

(433) OREGON at (434) WASHINGTON
* OREGON is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine visits to UW in Seattle
Trend Match (PLAY): OREGON (-6.5 at Washington)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR