College Football Week 0 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
Before unveiling this week’s qualifying play for my long-running Stability System in College Football, let me remind you of the details of the methodology. If you are already familiar with how this system works, simply scroll down to the bottom of the article for the Week 0 qualifying game, Fresno State at Kansas, plus an additional head-to-head trend that may be worthy of consideration for Saturday in the Dublin, Ireland contest. Note that there won’t be a full Analytics Report until next week, but we will have a DraftKings Betting Splits update for Saturday morning to go along with this piece and my strength ratings on the VSiN website to get you ready for Saturday.
Since I first joined VSiN at the start of the 2017 football season, I have been sharing my methodology for College Football Stability with subscribers. I highly recommend reading the linked article to better understand the Stability Score system. In it, I provide the analysis at the beginning of every season, specifically for the first four weeks of each season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, and 3). It is one of the foremost strategies I employ every year to find value early. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded. The logic is fundamentally sound. Returning fewer starters, starting over at quarterback, and welcoming in new head coaches or coordinators are always hurdles to overcome for teams. Eventually, the teams may overcome these hurdles, even later that season, but the general thought is that it doesn’t happen early, and oddsmakers don’t account for these factors nearly enough in building their lines.
A lot of the foundation of what is considered “stable” or not in college football has been shaken in recent years as teams, fans, bettors, and oddsmakers alike all wrestle with the impact of the transfer portal. I have also thought long and hard about the subject and have concluded over the last year or two that instability is instability, specifically at the all-important QB position. In other words, a transfer quarterback for a team, even if he has three years of starting experience somewhere else, is still a NEW quarterback. He is still learning new schemes, and while his veteran experience may lessen some of the bumps along the way, there are still, in fact, hurdles to overcome early with this new player in the key position. At other positions, I believe the system learning isn’t nearly as big a hurdle, so I treat them as returning starters. So, for those of you who have been asking me about when these stability ratings will be released for 2025 and how I will be handling the ever-growing transfer portal this year, there is your answer. New is new at QB; transfer starters at other positions count in the returning starter tally. Use your own discernment when the season comes around and the stability plays are announced in vying from those qualifying games.
Having worked with people on both sides of the betting window for many years, I have found that the amount of preseason preparation individuals undertake can vary significantly from book to book and from bettor to bettor. As a result, there can be significant misses by those setting the numbers. Doing homework early has become one of the most important aspects for college football bettors hoping to enjoy a successful campaign. Those bettors who scour the various betting publications, such as the VSiN College Football Betting Guide each summer, tend to be best prepared once Week 1 rolls around. Other resources that I am certain to take in each spring are the Phil Steele annual pub and the work of Brad Powers, who makes regular VSiN appearances as a college football expert.
There are many reasons why things can change dramatically from one season to the next in college football, among them the four-year eligibility rules, the pressure now placed on coaching staffs at every level program, the ever-growing transfer portal, and, of course, player transgressions off the field. The result is that there is always turnover from year to year, both on the field and on the sidelines. Bettors expecting to see the same thing they watched from a team at the end of the prior season can often be startled by the mammoth nature of the change.
Being a numbers guy and always looking for quantitative advantages in betting, I like to conduct an exercise that quantifies the level of stability for each program. I figure that the higher level of stability, the better the chances for success for any team, particularly early in the season. Naturally, putting a numerical grade to it makes it easier to spot this stability. Again, considering the point spread, the feeling is that oddsmakers don’t adjust enough for the “instability”.
I mentioned that I have run this feature for VSiN since 2017. However, the system is older than that. Over the last 13 years or so, I have implemented an early-season strategy that employs backing the teams with the greatest stability ratings in matchups against those in the most unstable situations. I can tell you that in those 13 years, I have never experienced a losing record by playing the games on the lists for the four weeks of the season. The degree of success has varied during that span, but in all 13 years I have closed with a profit, including last year, when the plays I shared went 23-14 ATS (62.2%). That was actually a better winning percentage year than typical, although it also produced 16 fewer plays than in 2023, when it showed a result of 30-23 for 56.5%. Had a bettor been playing $100 wagers on each game last fall, they would have profited $760. Hearing from readers, I know that there were bettors who DID play all 37 contests.
Of course, I’m sure these numbers can be improved by factoring in other successful handicapping strategies or by more closely examining the individual factors of instability, but as a stand-alone strategy, the success level is tough to beat. One thing that concerns me, however, especially after the reduced number of plays last season, is that instability has become a significant concern due to the transfer portal, so there could be fewer and fewer mismatches each season.
For those of you who doubt my strategy regarding transfer quarterbacks being designated as “new”, consider the last two years’ record as a strong indicator of why this has not changed anything about the overall system.
Just below, I’ve put together a chart of the College Football Stability Scores for 2025. When the season arrives, I will compile lists in each of the first four weeks, detailing the top mismatches. I have found that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which I will consider a play for this thought process. Incidentally, KANSAS hosting FRESNO STATE in Week 0 shows the first 2025 playable game with a difference of 15.
VIEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY SCORES CHART HERE
Here are the basics for determining each team’s Total Stability Score. In essence, the score is determined from five different stabilizing factors: Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, Quarterback, and Overall Returning Starters. Here is how the scores are determined:
Returning Head Coach Points
Yes, same Head Coach as 2024: 4 points
No, new Head Coach for 2025: 0 points
Returning Offensive Coordinator Points
Yes, same Offensive Coordinator as 2024: 3 points
No, new Offensive Coordinator for 2025: 0 points
Returning Defensive Coordinator Points
Yes, same Defensive Coordinator as 2024: 3 points
No, new Defensive Coordinator for 2025: 0 points
Returning Starting Quarterback Points
Yes, same Starting Quarterback as 2024: 4 points
No, new Starting Quarterback for 2025: 0 points
Very important, so I reiterate…I consider a transfer quarterback that is expected to start for his team as a NEW QUARTERBACK, regardless of the starting experience level he brings to the table. For 2025, there are again numerous recognizable QBs that have found new starting homes across the country. For instance, Nico Iamaleava at UCLA or Carson Beck at Miami are among the veteran QBs across the country that boast big game college football experience but will be in new schemes this fall. While they are not your typical first-year quarterbacks, they are NEW to those programs.
Total Number of Returning Starters Points
0-7 returning offensive & defensive starters: 0 points
8-9: 1 point
10-12: 2 points
13-16: 3 points
17-19: 4 points
20-22: 5 points
With all of this in mind, here are the details of the qualifying Stability Mismatch play for week 0. As you can see from the chart showing the Stability scores of all 136 teams, KANSAS has a 16, and FRESNO STATE has a 1. There will be a lot more of these plays I will be writing up over the next three weeks.
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Fresno State at Kansas (-12.5)
Stability Advantage: KANSAS by 15
Head Coach Lance Leipold has put Kansas football back on the map since his arrival a handful of years ago, leading the Jayhawks to back-to-back bowl games in 2022 and 2023. Prior to that, the program hadn’t been in the postseason since 2008. The 2025 team has a chance to be one of his better units overall, as they bring back five starters on each side of the ball, including now senior QB Jalon Daniels, who has started 28 games for the program since 2022. Ironically, he is looking for a bounce back season this fall after falling short of his usual numbers. That production, or lack thereof, had a lot to do with Kansas taking a step back last season.
Daniels and the Jayhawks’ first challenge will come against a Fresno State team that brings a stability score just one above the minimum into the 2025 season. That ONE score comes from returning eight starters from last year’s 6-7 season. The coaching staff is brand new and will be working in new systems under head coach Matt Entz, who has seen big-time football, just at the FCS level for North Dakota State. This is his first FBS job. The key to this game for Kansas to cover the 12.5 points will obviously be putting points on the board. If you check out my strength ratings for this week, you’ll see I have the Jayhawks scoring 32.8 on my Effective Stats ratings and 35.1 on my Bettors’ Ratings. Either would likely do the trick. There’s a reason this is a double-digit number; the Stability System suggests it isn’t big enough.
I indicated earlier that there is also a significant HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES TREND that will be affecting one of the games for week 0.
Week 0
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Kansas State vs. Iowa State (In Dublin)
Trend: IOWA STATE is on a 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS run versus KANSAS STATE and is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11
The game that opens the 2025 college football season will be played once again in Dublin, Ireland, a neutral contest between two Big 12 rivals with high hopes for the upcoming season. In fact, looking back come December, this contest could prove to be quite impactful as to who winds up at or near the top of the standings. The Cyclones come off an 11-3 season in 2024, but they were beaten in the league title game and thus left out of the CFP. Head coach Matt Campbell brings back 13 starters, including QB Rocco Becht. The Wildcats also have their starting QB back in Avery Johnson, from the 9-4 team last season. They have had their problems with ISU lately, however.
