Friday Night Lights: College Football Edition brings us five games in Week 1. The headline game depends on your view of the schedule. The closest line is San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan, but that is a game with less recognizable teams than Miami vs. Stanford and Fresno State vs. USC. Perhaps Toledo vs. Michigan State is more your speed, as that’s been the most interesting game from a betting market standpoint thus far. Or, you’re an Oklahoma fan and UTEP vs. Oklahoma is your game of choice.
Whatever the case may be, we’ve seen four of these teams already, so we have some idea what we can expect. While I typically have a spotlight game with these weekday game previews, including Colorado vs. Georgia Tech for Thursday, three of these games deserve a little more than that, but here are some thoughts on all of them, beginning with Toledo vs. Michigan State.
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 2, 9:15 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 1 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Toledo vs. Michigan State (-9, 47)
8 p.m. ET
The new-look Rockets under the guidance of former Mercer head coach Mike Jacobs take on the Spartans under longtime Big Ten bench boss Pat Fitzgerald. Toledo is expected to start John Alan Richter, who was 17-of-25 for 153 yards with a 3/1 TD/INT ratio last season. He played more in 2024 going 43-of-67 for 497 yards with a 4/0 TD/INT ratio. He’ll finally get his chance to run the offense, though Khamoni Robinson, who spent three years at Lenoir-Rhyne could be an option as well. Expect him to have some rushing packages after racking up nine scores on the ground last season.
Alessio Milivojevic didn’t have to wait as long as Richter for his shot, but he’ll get it here after relieving Aidan Chiles last season. Milivojevic finished last season with 1,267 yards and a 10/3 TD/INT ratio. He’ll be throwing to a new crop of wide receivers, including transfers from Notre Dame and Michigan, so we’ll see if he can create some more explosiveness for this group.
It will also be up to Fitzgerald and OC Nick Sheridan to figure out how to spark this ground game. Michigan State was 110th in the nation in rushing yards per game and 104th in yards per carry. That said, they did run for 4.5 yards per carry outside of Big Ten play. UConn transfer Cam Edwards had well over 1,200 yards last season, so he could be the answer.
Toledo’s defense was simply spectacular last season, but the losses on the field and off of it are heavy. DC Vince Kehres was a stellar hire by Jason Candle and he’s now the DC at Syracuse with Candle off to UConn. That’s a big loss, as the Rockets were second in yards per game allowed, third in yards per play, and fourth in PPG allowed with just 13.3. There are unknowns at every level, but as I wrote in our 2026 College Football Betting Guide, DC Jahmal Brown led a group that had 42 sacks in 12 games last season and 96 tackles for loss. They are likely to be hyper-aggressive, which could burn them.
I like Over 47 here as a result. Milivojevic had pretty good numbers last season and has a talented group of WRs to go with a very good RB in Edwards. Mercer’s offense was great last season under Jacobs with 6.8 YPP and over 3,800 passing yards. This looks to be an aggressive group on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Over 47
Miami (FL) (-24, 47.5) vs. Stanford
9 p.m. ET
Consider me impressed with Stanford following the first game of the Tavita Pritchard era. I was kind of underwhelmed by the hire given that the program got a big financial windfall from a very deep-pocketed donor last season and Andrew Luck should have a lot of pull as the GM. He went to Pritchard and a first-time OC in Terry Heffernan, so my skepticism was based off of that, coupled with the fact that Davis Warren was their QB target in the transfer portal.
Well, Warren had over 300 passing yards against Hawaii and the Trees racked up 6.8 yards per play. Even though the final score was close, it probably shouldn’t have been, as Stanford had 2.1 YPP more than Hawaii and ranked in the 72nd percentile in EPA/Play based off of 2025 numbers, while Hawaii was just average. Furthermore, Hawaii was in the 32nd percentile in Success Rate on offense.
As my pal Zachary Cohen noted, Stanford’s yards per dropback in the first game were very impressive and that’s something that should help them at least keep things close against Miami. The Hurricanes do have a lot of hype with transfer QB Darian Mensah, returning RB Mark Fletcher, and a rich talent pipeline that should help them replace what they lost on defense.
Still, as I look at this game, it’s a big ask of Miami to be efficient on both sides of the ball against a team that has gotten a chance to play and work out the kinks. It’s also a late game on the body for the Hurricanes, who are a long way from home in Palo Alto. I don’t doubt that Mensah will be great this season and he has a ton of help on both sides of the ball, especially with OC Shannon Dawson and DC Corey Hetherman, but it might take a little time for all of that to come together.
At least when it comes to covering numbers this big.
Pick: Stanford +24
Those are the plays that I like for Friday night. Here are some thoughts on the other three games.
San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan (-3, 56)
6:30 p.m. ET
These two teams both played in Week 1 and this is a more competitive matchup for each, at least based on the line for the game. San Jose State was a big underdog to USC last week and Eastern Michigan had what could very well be their biggest favorite role of the season against Sacramento State. It took the Spartans a long time to wake up against the Trojans, but they did put some cosmetic touches on the scoreboard in the fourth quarter when they did.
The Eagles only allowed one offensive touchdown to the Hornets, who had a second-quarter scoop-and-score just before the half. EMU held Sac State to just 4.4 yards per play, as they harassed QB Carson Conklin all game long. Will they be able to do the same to SJSU’s Luke Weaver? That’ll be the big question here. I don’t have a bet in this game, as my line is Eastern Michigan -2.5, though they are a team I do want to fade.
I’m not in love with the spot for San Jose State, as the Spartans played in a sauna against USC in the Coliseum on Saturday and then had to leave Wednesday for this game in Ypsilanti, MI. That’s pretty tough this early in the season when practice time is extremely valuable.
UTEP vs. Oklahoma (-41, 51)
8 p.m. ET
The first thing you notice here is the spread related to the total. Not much is expected from the UTEP offense here, as you could bet Oklahoma to win with a shutout at +160 as of Wednesday night. The Miners scored 23.3 PPG last season, and just 10 points in the 27-10 loss to Texas in Week 3. UTEP has migrated to the Mountain West Conference for this season, so we’ll see how they fare there with three sophomores and two freshmen on the roster at QB. Incarnate Word transfer EJ Colson Jr. will get the start at QB. He had a 16/4 TD/INT ratio for the Cardinals.
The Sooners will roll with John Mateer and the expectation is that they’ll roll on defense. With Michigan on deck, we’ll see how much of the playbook Oklahoma wants to unveil here. No bet from me in this one, but that Big Noon Kickoff Game against Michigan in Week 2 might be enough to consider a second half or live bet on UTEP.
Fresno State vs. USC (-22.5, 52)
9 p.m. ET
The season debut for the Bulldogs comes against a Trojans team with a data point, as they were the better team for three quarters against San Jose State before allowing the Spartans to put up some points against the backups. Jayden Maiava was very efficient, going 25-of-29 and he didn’t throw any picks. Lincoln Riley has basically removed that from his game, which is huge because that was a major problem at UNLV.
I do think it helps a head coach like Matt Entz to be able to take advantage of some film on USC, but there is a clear athleticism gap between the two teams. I’m also very curious to see what happens with Jayden Mandel, who won the QB competition for the Bulldogs. The Clovis, CA native has been at Fresno State throughout his collegiate career since committing in 2022, but now he’ll get his first real opportunity, as he’s only thrown nine career passes. He missed all of last season due to injury.
That makes this a very hard handicap. Fresno State should be able to run the football and Entz is viewed as a top-notch defensive mind, so that could help them keep it close. On the other hand, Mandel’s first start coming in the Coliseum is a tall ask. No bet from me here.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 1 games on our Pro Picks Page.
