The 2026 tennis season reaches its peak with the 2026 US Open in New York, with the final Grand Slam of the year getting underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The summer hard-court tune-ups are behind us, and now the margin for error disappears as the best players in the world battle across best-of-five and grueling best-of-three tests in the Flushing Meadows heat.
The fortnight always brings unmatched betting value on both tours, offering an early look at physical durability, tactical adjustments, and draw paths that could shape the championship picture. There is no shortage of high-level matchups to break down, and I’ll be delivering daily betting analysis and best bets throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, keep reading for my top tennis picks and best bets for Day 6 of the US Open on Friday, September 4.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar
About a month ago, Merida Aguilar defeated Michelsen in a 6-4, 6-7 (4), 6-1 battle in the Round of 32 at the National Bank Open. In that match, Merida Aguilar broke Michelsen five times in three sets. That makes it hard not to like the big plus-money odds as they prepare to meet in Flushing.
One result shouldn’t completely change the way you look at a match, but it’s clear Merida Aguilar was more comfortable facing the Michelsen serve than he was when the American beat him in straight sets at Indian Wells. And honestly, Merida Aguilar is the one that comes into this match playing much better tennis. Merida Aguilar is 13-3 in his last 16 matches, and his win over Andrey Rublev last round was just as impressive as Michelsen’s dismantling of Brandon Nakashima.
Merida Aguilar also happens to have a TennisViz Performance Rating of 7.64 on hard courts at the non-majors in 2026, and that’s slightly above Michelsen’s 7.61. Merida Aguilar’s 2026 Elo Rating of 1894.2 also clears Michelsen’s 1857.7. There’s just a lot that suggests Merida Aguilar is a good value bet at the current odds, and perhaps there has been an overreaction to Michelsen’s win over Nakashima.
Tactically, I like Merida Aguilar’s heavy forehand to do some damage when targeting the Michelsen forehand, which is very clearly a weakness at this stage in his career. I also like Merida Aguilar, who is an aggressive returner, to do some good work against Michelsen’s shaky second serve. Also, if this match ends up going a bit longer, Merida Aguilar should have a slight edge with his stronger ability — and willingness — to grind out wins.
Bet: Merida Aguilar ML (+140 – 1.5 units)
Denis Shapovalov vs. Ben Shelton
I have taken Shelton’s opponent to win a set in each of his previous two matches, and this is a very similar play. I feel Shapovalov has the ability to hang around against Shelton, who I still don’t trust to record straightforward wins. Shelton is good for a costly mental lapse once or twice per match, and Shapovalov should be able to capitalize. However, it is pricy to go Over on 3.5 sets, or take Shapovalov to win a set, so I’m taking my chances with the Over on the game total.
Shapovalov is undeniably an inconsistent player, and Shelton has owned this head-to-head series. However, Shapovalov won at least a set in two of the three matches they finished, and these two have gone to tiebreakers in four of the 12 sets they have played. There hasn’t been much that has separated them, and Shapovalov should be eager to go out there and potentially flip this rivalry. I’m not sure he’ll actually do that, as I do believe Shelton has the better overall game. But I have faith in Shapovalov showing up with some intensity and focus, which should be enough for him to put up a fight.
Bet: Over 36.5 Games (-127)
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Daniil Medvedev
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jiri Lehecka
One of my favorite parts of betting the majors is getting to do some set spread stuff in matches in which I’m too big of a coward to take the underdogs. Well, here’s me being a coward again, as I’m grabbing Rinderknech and Tsitsipas to win sets in their respective matches.
With Rinderknech, I just can’t get behind Medvedev winning in straights against a good player right now. The Russian has played some solid tennis in New York thus far, but he was so miserable in the run up to this tournament that it’s pretty easy to envision him slipping up here. Rinderknech is a player that should be able to run through most of his service games, and he’s good enough as a returner to accept any of Medvedev’s gifts — whether those are double faults or just poorly played service games. So, while I can easily see Medvedev winning this match, I imagine he’ll have to work for it.
In the Tsitsipas match, I actually give the Greek star a legitimate shot at winning, so it’s likely I’ll sprinkle some moneyline too. He has just been dialed in since arriving in New York, and having Patrick Mourataglou in his coaching box appears to have given him some confidence. In this meeting with Lehecka, Tsitsipas will be every bit as good when it comes to the serve and forehand, which is why I see this as more of a 50-50. The only clear edge Lehecka has is the backhand, but Tsitsipas probably makes up for that with his superior movement. He should get on the board.
PARLAY: Rinderknech To Win A Set & Tsitsipas To Win A Set (-125 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
