This week the UFC heads to Paris for UFC Paris, headlined by the UFC debut of French star Salahdine Parnasse against Dan Hooker. Unfortunately a fight we can’t model this week with no octagon data on Parnasse. He’s a European star worth watching and the main event should prove electric. But no model play for it from us.
Dave and I did give our thoughts on the main event on this weeks First Strike. And we talked through the upcoming First Strike Survivor game. Give it a listen/watch HERE before Saturday.
Let’s dig in.
Michael Page vs Nursultan Ruziboev
Michael Venom Page is one of the most frustrating fighters the model has ever encountered. The numbers don’t add up. The eye test doesn’t add up. And yet somehow the man is 4–1 in the UFC and on a three-fight win streak, most recently a decision over Sam Patterson. Every fight goes to the judges. Every fight looks a little lackluster. And every time the hand gets raised, the questions multiply.
Now 39 years old, the direction of his UFC career remains as mysterious as his striking style. He enters this one against Nursultan Ruziboev, who is riding a three-fight win streak of his own, with two finishes in that run. Most recently submitting Andrew Pulyaev in the first round back in June.
Page holds a three-inch reach advantage, which is where the creative striking has its best chance to operate. The xR% gap, though, goes to Ruziboev. Page sits at a baffling 47%. A number that reflects a fighter who loses more rounds than he wins by a statistical measure, yet somehow keeps winning fights. Ruziboev checks in at a solid 64%. He is the more conventional fighter by every metric available.
All five of Page’s UFC fights have gone to decision. Ruziboev has three knockouts and a submission in the UFC and has never been finished himself. The finishing edge belongs clearly to the challenger.
The striking numbers are low across the board for both men. This is a fight that produces more movement than contact. Page lands just 2.15 significant strikes per minute. An absurdly low number. With a +0.57 differential, absorbing only 1.57 per minute. He lands two shots and ghosts. Then lands two more. It’s maddening to watch and nearly impossible to model accurately. Ruziboev lands 2.38 per minute with a –0.29 differential, absorbing slightly more than he’s giving back. He does carry three knockdowns scored in the UFC, so the power exists if he can find the target.
The grappling is largely irrelevant from Page’s side. He holds a 16% control rate, zero career takedowns, and a 68% takedown defense. He is elusive at every angle of the game. Ruziboev is more active on the ground, 40% control rate with four takedowns at 80% accuracy, but his own 33% takedown defense is a concern, though four of his six takedowns conceded came against Joaquin Buckley in one fight.
The model runs it through and lands on Ruziboev as the underdog, but delivers a Tier 3 Dead Dog label alongside a 60% win probability. The confidence level simply isn’t there to act on it. The internal score doesn’t justify a play, and anyone who has tried to bet against MVP before understands why the model struggles here. He defies quantification.
At some point the right side on a Page fight will come. This might not be the week. We’ll watch him land 25 strikes across three rounds and probably win a unanimous decision.
No official play here. This is a watch fight.
Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas
The hometown factor is real for Oumar Sy in Paris. He’s 1–2 in the United States and 2–0 in France. Those two US losses, though, come with important context. He lost as an over –700 favorite to Alonzo Menifield and most recently as a near –300 favorite to Ion Cutelaba in March. The model flagged him as a trap favorite against Cutelaba and we stayed off, a decision that looks correct in hindsight.
Now he returns to Paris against Modestas Bukauskas, who enters on a strong recent run, 4–1 since 2025. And now fighting for the third time in 2026, most recently a decision win in May. He’s active, he’s determined, and he’s walking into enemy territory as a significant underdog.
That seven-inch reach advantage for Sy at 83 inches is the first number that jumps off the page. At light heavyweight, that’s a weapon.
The xR% gap is significant as well. Sy holds a strong 73% despite his recent losses. A number that reflects how consistently he controls and wins rounds when he’s operating at his best. Bukauskas checks in at 42%, a red flag mark that tells you he’s been on the losing end of too many rounds throughout his UFC run.
The striking profiles confirm the edge. Sy lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute with a clean +1.54 differential, absorbing only 1.87 per minute. He is technical, efficient, and difficult to hit. Bukauskas lands 3.14 per minute with a –0.72 differential, absorbing 3.86 per minute. He’s been knocked down five times in his UFC career, and while Sy has zero knockdowns scored in the UFC, he carries five career knockouts across his broader MMA résumé. The finishing ability exists even if it hasn’t shown up inside the octagon.
If the fight moves into the clinch, Sy holds the stronger numbers as well at 85% control rate, spending 34% of his time in a dominant position with seven takedowns at 35% accuracy. Bukauskas defends takedowns at 82%, which means this fight likely stays standing, exactly where Sy’s reach and technical striking can shine.
The model delivers a clear result. Oumar Sy receives an 82% win probability and a full confidence Tier 1 Favorite designation. Even at –205 the model sees an edge against the implied probability, which makes the straight bet a legitimate option for the right bankroll and stomach.
The number that is getting my attention is the Oumar Sy KO prop at +450 currently. Bukauskas brings a chin that has been cracked five times, Sy brings a fight in front of his home crowd with something to prove after shocking losses as a heavy favorite, and the combination of those two factors makes a finish more plausible than the straight price would suggest. A small unit on that prop alongside the moneyline is the approach I’m considering.
Check out FightingWithNumbers.com for the full model tale of the tapes, grades, and reports on the fights this weekend.
Good luck Saturday. Profitez de la violence.
