College Football Week 1: North Carolina vs. Minnesota

For many bettors, Week 1 is the true start of the college football season and we’ve got a couple of Thursday night games to serve as the appetizer to what awaits on Saturday. Or maybe we should call these hors d’oeuvres because there are four games that could classify as appetizers on Friday. Either way, we have college football and that always goes good with food no matter what.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota and Coastal Carolina vs. Jacksonville State are the two FBS Thursday games, and I have a stronger opinion on one over the other, so we start in Minneapolis and wrap up with a showdown between roosters.

 

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North Carolina Tar Heels (-2, 50.5) at Minnesota Golden Gophers

8 p.m. ET, FOX

This is a big non-conference game to open the season for both squads, as they would appear to be pretty evenly matched by what we saw with this line. Minnesota spent most of the summer favored, but we’ve seen a game-week move to the Tar Heels side of the ledger, as they head to Huntington Bank Stadium as road favorites.

Max Johnson likely makes his first start for UNC with the big shoes of Drake Maye to fill. Johnson has 784 pass attempts over four seasons, with two at LSU and two at Texas A&M. He’s got a 47/12 TD/INT ratio and should fit rather nicely in Chip Lindsey’s offense. It doesn’t hurt that Omarion Hampton, who rushed for 1,504 yards can shoulder a lot of the workload on this side of the ball.

Head coach Mack Brown has said that sophomore Conner Harrell will play as well. That didn’t seem to impact what bettors think of the Tar Heels here.

Defensively, I am very excited about the prospects of new DC Geoff Collins, who takes over for Gene Chizik. I wrote about this unit in our 2024 College Football Betting Guide as the author of the ACC and what stood out most to me is that Chizik took the Tar Heels from 114th in yards per play allowed in 2022 to 65th in YPP in 2023. Collins should be able to further that positive trend.

On the Minnesota side, New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer will get the start at QB and racked up a ton of accolades at the FCS ranks. He had a 29/5 TD/INT ratio and threw for 3,464 yards, including 493 in a 45-42 loss to Central Michigan. What that box score doesn’t tell you is that running back Dylan Laube, who did stick on the Raiders roster, had 295 of them on some long catch-and-runs.

Maybe that will be part of Minnesota’s offense with Darius Taylor and Marcus Major. There are some whispers that a banged-up Taylor may not play. The Gophers may not be as run-heavy as past iterations with Brosmer at QB, a much more promising option than guys like Tanner Morgan and Athan Kaliakmanis, but they’ll still want to try and win that battle in the trenches.

That would also take some pressure off of first-year DC Corey Heatherman, who was the DC at James Madison from 2019-21 and served as the Rutgers linebackers coach the last two years. His defense will be spread out against this Lindsey attack and this was a unit that allowed nearly six yards per play last year.

My Week 1 College Football Power Ratings have UNC favored. I liked this more when the Tar Heels were an underdog, but, as I mentioned in our CFB Guide Best Bets file, I have an Alt Over Win Total position on the Tar Heels. I like this team a lot and it starts here.

Pick: North Carolina -2

Other Thursday Game:

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-2.5, 54.5)

8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

The season opener for Jacksonville State is a lot less interesting this season because last year’s first game was their first as an FBS member. They won that game 17-14 over UTEP and it kickstarted a bowl-eligible season for head coach Rich Rodriguez and the Cocks.

Coastal Carolina also went bowling, but the Chanticleers were not the same under Tim Beck that they were under Jamey Chadwell, who remains at Liberty. They’ll also take the field without Grayson McCall, the longtime starter in Conway who transferred to NC State. We have another “or” situation here on the depth chart between incumbent Ethan Vasko and Michigan State transfer Noah Kim, who threw for 1,090 yards last season with a 6/6 TD/INT ratio.

Jacksonville State does not have primary starter Zion Webb from last season, but has a new Zion in Zion Turner, who started at UConn in 2022. Part-time starter Logan Smothers is still around. All in all, this looks like a bit of a messy game, as both teams have a bunch of transfers.

I have it Jacksonville State -3.5, so maybe a slight lean to their side, but nothing more than that.

Slight Lean: Jacksonville State -2.5

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