College Football Week 1 Predictions Using Makinen Stability Scores:

Hopefully, you’re already familiar with the methodology I’ve used regarding college football Stability Scores heading into the start of each season. In a nutshell, these scores are a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies I employ yearly to find value early. Teams in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.

The logic is fundamentally sound. Returning fewer starters, starting over at quarterback, and welcoming in new head coaches or coordinators are always hurdles for teams. Eventually, the teams may overcome these hurdles, but it generally doesn’t happen early, and oddsmakers don’t account for these factors enough in building their lines.

 

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The recent surge of the transfer portal has only added to the potential instability. For the record, I consider a transfer quarterback expected to start for his team a new quarterback, regardless of the starting experience level he brings to the table. For 2024, numerous recognizable quarterbacks have again found new starting homes across the country at some of the nation’s foremost programs.

Being an analytics guy and always looking for quantitative advantages in betting, I like to conduct an exercise that quantifies the level of stability for each program. The higher the level of stability, the better the chances for success for any team, particularly early in the season. Putting a numerical grade to it makes it easier to spot this stability.

In the 12 seasons I have implemented an early season strategy that employs backing the teams with the greatest stability ratings, I can tell you I have NEVER experienced a losing record by playing those games for the four weeks of the season. The degree of success has varied during that span, but in all 12 years, I have closed with a profit, including last year, when the plays I shared went 30-23 ATS (56.5%). That is a typical year for this system, following 2022 results of 57.4%. Had a bettor been playing $100 wagers on each game, they would have profited $470. Of course, these numbers can be improved by factoring in other successful handicapping strategies or by more closely examining the individual factors of instability. Still, as a standalone strategy, the success level is tough to beat.

I’ve compiled a chart of the College Football Stability Scores for 2024. I have found that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum I will consider a play for this thought process. Disappointingly, SMU started us off with a 0-1 ATS record for the system when they failed to get going against Nevada last week.

For those of you reading now who might be new to my College Football Stability System, here are the basics for how I determine each team’s Total Stability Score. The score is determined from five stabilizing factors: Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, Quarterback, and Overall Returning Starters. Here is how the scores are determined:

Returning Head Coach Points
Yes, same Head Coach as 2023: 4 points
No, new Head Coach for 2024: 0 points

Returning Offensive Coordinator Points
Yes, same Offensive Coordinator as 2023: 3 points
No, new Offensive Coordinator for 2024: 0 points

Returning Defensive Coordinator Points
Yes, same Defensive Coordinator as 2023: 3 points
No, new Defensive Coordinator for 2024: 0 points

Returning Starting Quarterback Points
Yes, same Starting Quarterback as 2023: 4 points
No, new Starting Quarterback for 2024: 0 points

For 2024, numerous recognizable quarterbacks have found new starting homes across the country. For instance, Dillon Gabriel at Oklahoma or DJ Uiagalelei at Florida State are among the veteran quarterbacks across the country who boast a wealth of college football experience but will be in new schemes this fall. While they are not your typical first-year quarterbacks, they are new to those programs.

Total Number of Returning Starters Points
0-7 returning offensive & defensive starters: 0 points
8-9: 1 point
10-12: 2 points
13-16: 3 points
17-19: 4 points
20-22: 5 points

CLICK TO VIEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAM STABILITY SCORE CHART

Recognize that the level of stability mismatch has nothing to do with the point spread or any type of projected score. It is simply a statement of how different the teams are regarding stability heading into the season. I also don’t feel any more strongly about the mismatch equaling 17 than those equaling 8. I have never found any correlation showing the higher the mismatch number, the more successful it is.

Here are the details of the 10 qualifying college football Stability Mismatch plays for Week 1.


Florida Atlantic (+13.5) at Michigan State

Stability Advantage: FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 9

Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET (BTN)

Things were never really all that stable in the Michigan State program in the four-year head coach Mel Tucker era. Sure, the Spartans had a fantastic 2021 season, winning 11 games. But besides that, they were 11-20 in the other three seasons, and there always seemed to be some off-the-field controversy surrounding the program. He has been moved since the conclusion of last season and replaced by former Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith, who, of course, brings his choices for assistants with him.

Smith will have a reasonable supply of returning starting experience, including 10 from the defense, but that unit allowed a four-year high of 28.3 PPG in 2023. Of note, Sparty is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite. For FAU, head coach Tom Herman and his staff begin its second season atop the program and figure to turn to Cam Fancher at QB, an offseason transfer from Marshall. The Owls were 3-1 ATS in the road dog role last year.

Virginia Tech (-13.5) at Vanderbilt

Stability Advantage: VIRGINIA TECH by 12

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Virginia Tech boasts the nation’s most returning production in 2024, with 21 starters back. It’s rare that Power 4 programs can do this in this day and age of the transfer portal, and it’s even rarer that the team doing this is a winning team.

The Hokies were 7-6 a year ago under current third-year head coach Brent Pry, and they culminated the effort with a 41-20 rout of Tulane in the Military Bowl. Suffice it to say, expectations are very high for Tech in 2024. QB Kyron Drones is the biggest name; he is back after accounting for nearly 3000 yards of offense a year ago.

The line for the contest is scary on paper, as the Hokies are 13.5-point road favorites at a SEC school. However, that SEC school is the league’s worst and in a transitional year. Fourth-year head coach Clark Lea again leads the Vanderbilt program, but he has brought in two new coordinators. He will break in a new offensive system with New Mexico State transfer QB Diego Pavia under center. Pacia is a senior and had great numbers for the Aggies, but the SEC will be a massive upgrade in competition for him. Virginia Tech’s ACC title aspirations are realistic, this line number reflects it.

UTEP at Nebraska (-27.5)

Stability Advantage: NEBRASKA by 13

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (FOX)

Expectations are extremely high in Lincoln for head coach Matt Rhule’s second season in Nebraska. Are they warranted coming off a seventh straight sub-.500 season? Honestly, yes, there are many reasons for optimism.

First, this team brought back 17 starters and was only outscored by 0.3 PPG in 2023 against a tough schedule. Second, Matt Rhule’s second team at Temple went from 2-10 to 6-6, and his second team at Baylor improved from 1-11 to 7-6. If this Cornhuskers group were to improve by 4-6 games, we would be looking at a double-digit win type of year. Thirdly, while QB Heinrich Haarberg is back for 2024, Rhule saw enough in five-star recruit Dylan Raiola to name him the starter. He is the highest-rated recruit at the school in almost 20 years.

The first test is against a UTEP program that has gone 7-5-3 in wins the last three seasons, an obvious downward trend. That meant a coaching change, and Scotty Walden takes over after coming from FCS Austin Peay. Nebraska is favored big, but, in my opinion, this team needs a big start as a confidence builder to start believing its lofty goals are realistic. Anything shy of a rout win and doubts could creep in from experts and fans alike.

Miami (OH) (+2.5) at Northwestern

Stability Advantage: MIAMI (OH) by 9

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (BTN)

Two bowl teams from a season ago meet in the season-opening game at Northwestern’s new temporary practice field home as it awaits construction of its future lakeside jewel. One team has continued high expectations in 2024: Miami (OH), who comes off an 11-3 season and brings back 12 starters. QB Brett Gabbert leads that group. He has started 28 games for the school.

Even still, the better unit for the Redhawks might be the defense, which allowed just 15.9 PPG last season. As such, points may be at a premium for the Wildcats and head coach David Braun. He has two new coordinators and a new QB to work with this fall regarding what figures to be a loaded Big Ten Conference. Last season, Braun’s team was one of the country’s biggest surprises, going 8-5 and wrapping it all up with a Las Vegas Bowl win over Utah. It won’t be easy in 2024, though, and there’s a reason that Northwestern is a short and tenuous home favorite.

Florida International (+21) at Indiana

Stability Advantage: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 12

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN)

Head coach Curt Cignetti arrives in Bloomington to some fanfare and optimism, as he led the James Madison program to new heights the last few seasons. He also brings some of his former Dukes’ players with him. How they mesh with the holdovers from last year’s 3-9 Hoosiers’ team and how they adapt to the higher competition level in the Big Ten remains to be seen.

One thing is for sure. This is not a stable situation out of the gate, regardless of what happens down the road. Are you ready to lay three TDs with such a team, one that scored just 22.2 PPG in 2023? FIU comes off back-to-back 4-8 seasons under head coach Mike MacIntyre, but with 14 starters back, they might have what it takes this year to climb a level or two in Conference USA. Included in that group is QB Keyone Jenkins, who accounted for 17 TDs and showed some flashes in his freshman year last season. MacIntyre’s team had its first winning ATS road record in six years in 2023.

North Texas (+5) at (196) South Alabama

Stability Advantage: NORTH TEXAS by 12

Saturday, 5:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

South Alabama is expected to win by oddsmakers this week against North Texas, as those behind the counter have installed the Jaguars as 5-point home favorites. I’m not sure they understand my Stability System, however, as South Alabama has a first-time head coach in Major Applewhite and brings back just seven starters from a 7-6 team. Officially, this program has a stability score of zero heading into this game.

I’ll tell you what: teams with zero stability scores never do well throughout a season, and very few are favored in their openers. The underdog here is a North Texas team that was 5-7 last year for now second-year head coach Eric Morris. He has just 10 starters back, but his coaching staff is in place, and his offense figures to be able to score a lot of points again. The Mean Green averaged 34.5 last fall and turn to former TCU QB Chandler Morris to build on that effort. I love underdogs that can score. I love them even more when facing a highly unstable team.

UCLA at Hawaii (+14)

Stability Advantage: HAWAII by 9

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (CBS)

To be perfectly fair, oddsmakers made things extremely difficult for Hawaii in the season opener last week versus Delaware State, installing the Warriors as 40+ point favorites. They came up well short in a 35-14 win. It was a win nonetheless and gives head coach Timmy Chang’s team momentum as it prepares to host UCLA this Saturday.

Chang’s team has made steady progress in his first two years as head coach, and for 2024, the goal is to return to a bowl game. He has 15 starters back, including quarterback Brayden Schrager, who threw for 3500+ yards and 26 TDs last season.

The Bruins are a team of massive intrigue for 2024 as they play their first season under first-time head coach DeShaun Foster. He has been the running backs coach at UCLA for the last seven years, but he will still be switching schemes under new OC Eric Bienemy. The program will be facing a lot of travel miles as they transition to Big Ten play this fall. While coveted by the average vacationer, this trip to Hawaii is not easy for football teams. Hawaii is on a 13-6-1 ATS surge as a home dog. This is a tough line spot for a rebuilding UCLA team.

Fresno State (+21.5) at Michigan

Stability Advantage: FRESNO ST by 13

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (Peacock)

No team has undergone as many changes as defending national champion Michigan for 2024. Since the title game, the Wolverines have gone through scandal, coaching changes, roster turnover and more. Even still, experts are not “down” on this program for this fall, assuming there is still enough talent in the hopper to compete again on a national scale and in the expanded/enhanced Big Ten.

Sherrone Moore, a huge supporter of former head coach Jim Harbaugh, and the interim replacement when Harbaugh was suspended, takes over. He has just seven starters back and will have to replace offensive studs QB JJ McCarthy and RB Blake Corum, both in the NFL now.

The underdog here and the far more stable team in the matchup is Fresno State, a program coming off a 9-4 season. Head Coach Jeff Tedford had to step aside for health reasons, but the rest of the staff is still in place for interim replacement Tim Skipper. He brings back 13 starters this season, including sophomore QB Mikey Keene, who is coming off a big freshman season. The Bulldogs put up 30.5 PPG last year and were 4-1 ATS in non-conference play. Skipper’s team will need to score to cover this one, but the +21.5-point spread looks favorable.

Georgia State at Georgia Tech (-22)

Stability Advantage: GEORGIA TECH by 12

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)

Georgia Tech pulled off a huge upset of Florida State this past week in Ireland and will be hosting this contest versus Georgia State with a ton of momentum. The Yellow Jackets and their fans were cautiously optimistic heading into this season, coming off a 7-6 season that culminated with a first bowl game victory in seven years.

I don’t want to overstate it, but after the win over the Seminoles, the hype train may have left the station. Head coach Brent Key’s team has 13 starters back and is led by QB Haynes King, a transfer from Texas A&M who had a solid opener.

Georgia State, meanwhile, is in the opening stages of what could be a rebuilding season behind new head coach Dell McGee. The all-new coaching staff is working with just 10 starters back. Tech has the momentum and a significant stability edge here. There is a reason this line has ballooned to 22.

James Madison at Charlotte (+6.5)

Stability Advantage: CHARLOTTE by 8

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

James Madison has enjoyed two terrific seasons since elevating to FBS-level college football, going 19-5. However, Year 3 may prove to be the biggest challenge yet for the program, as, not surprisingly, the Dukes couldn’t hang on to their coveted coaching staff after last season. They will also bring back just seven returning starters. The biggest loss comes at quarterback, where Jordan McCloud, who landed in the transfer portal after the coaching changes, leaves a huge void. He accounted for 43 TDs in 2023, with 35 through the air.

On the other sideline, Charlotte hopes to be one of the country’s surprise teams in 2024 for second-year head coach Biff Poggi. The 49ers were just 3-9 last season and need to find a spark offensively. Could it come from Florida transfer QB Max Brown? Defensively, Poggi’s team was way better in 2023 than in 2022, a good sign that this team could take a step forward this fall. This lien opened at 7 points and has since been bet down to 6.5.

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