Nebraska vs. Illinois
There is a lot happening in college football on Friday night, as we have five games across five different conferences. The ACC, American, Big Ten, Mountain West, and Big 12 will all take the field, so there’s pretty much something for everyone. In order, the games are Virginia Tech vs. SMU, South Florida vs. East Carolina, Nebraska vs. Illinois, New Mexico vs. Nevada, and TCU vs. Arizona.
Incredibly, the only one of those games that could have some College Football Playoff implications is the one with New Mexico, who may be strongly in the mix for the lone Group of Six berth. Losses last week for Arizona and SMU definitely altered the trajectories of their seasons. Both of those teams have the chance to win their respective conferences or at least play spoiler in a big way, but they need assistance to move back up the standings.
I’ve got a couple of plays for Friday’s slate, so we’ll start with those and then look at the remainder of the slate.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 4, 10:00 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 10 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Nebraska (-4.5, 50) vs. Illinois Prediction
Friday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Pick: Illinois +4.5
The Illini are a different team with Katin Houser at QB. He came back last week for the 20-17 win over Maryland, which doesn’t look terribly impressive on paper given the final score, but Illinois did have 407 yards to 288 for the Terps and that was one of the stronger defensive efforts of the season for Bret Bielema’s team.
Houser wasn’t very sharp coming back from a hand injury, but he’s very experienced at the position and was able to create a handful of explosives with 223 yards on just 18 completions. For the season as a whole, he has a 13/5 TD/INT ratio and has completed 64.8% of his passes. Also, with Houser back, the Maryland defense had to respect the run more and that led to 5.6 yards per carry for Illinois rushers. That should be a positive going forward.
Nebraska’s had a very stout defense most of the season, as the Blackshirts entered the week 17th in yards per carry allowed, including just 2.99 YPC in Big Ten play. So, we’ll see if Illinois can leverage their physicality and have a balanced attack. Houser’s presence definitely helps the cause, though the Cornhuskers have played some pretty talented teams in conference play and held them at bay.
Ultimately, I’m looking at the Illini here because I’m not sure what’s up with Anthony Colandrea, but he’s not operating at peak efficiency at all right now. The Nebraska QB has a 2/5 TD/INT ratio over the last three games and has not been a factor running the football at all. In that span, he’s had 37 carries for 105 yards. Over four October games, the Cornhuskers averaged fewer than five yards per play.
If Colandrea isn’t going to be that dual-threat presence, this is a really pedestrian offense at best. It should also be mentioned that Colandrea has been sacked 11 times over the last three games. He’s taking quite a bit of punishment between the sacks, knockdowns, and the carries and he’s not a big dude at 6-feet tall and 200 pounds.
TCU at Arizona (-9, 44) Prediction
Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: Arizona -9
The Fort Worth faithful seem to be losing faith in the Horned Frogs. Sonny Dykes set the bar too high with the team’s march to the College Football Playoff early in his tenure and now being 4-4 with one of the nation’s best defenses isn’t enough. It isn’t an exciting brand of football by any means. TCU’s 22 points scored last week against Kansas were the most that the Horned Frogs have scored since dropping 31 on Arkansas State and 63 on Grambling earlier this season. In other words, it was their “best” P4 effort to date.
For a guy in Dykes who made a name for himself in the coaching world on the offensive side of the ball, it has to be a major source of frustration. The team was unable to keep QB Josh Hoover, who transferred to Indiana, and pinned their hopes on Harvard transfer Jaden Craig. Craig has been okay this season with an 11/6 TD/INT ratio and a couple of scores on the ground, but he’s also been sacked 21 times and only has 1.6 yards per carry.
This is a pretty telling spread and total combo. Obviously we have a low-scoring expectation here, but that’s a big number for the Wildcats with a two-score spread in a game with a total in the mid 40s. But, we can all agree that Noah Fifita is a better QB than Craig. Fifita had a solid game in last week’s loss to Texas Tech, as he threw for 417 yards. He has a 19/4 TD/INT ratio on the season and an 8/2 ratio in Big 12 play.
Fifita was sacked five times by a Texas Tech defense that has 28 sacks in eight games. TCU, despite their strong defensive numbers, only has 18 sacks. Arizona is actually tied for 10th in the nation with 25 sacks. Given how many times Craig has been hit this season, I really like Fifita’s ability to stay on schedule and ahead of the sticks. I don’t think TCU has that same luxury here.
Other Friday Games
Virginia Tech at SMU (-6, 56.5): I considered trusting James Franklin here, but the Hokies only have a +0.27 yards per play differential in ACC action. SMU has a +1.1 YPP differential. Statistically, despite last week’s loss to Syracuse, the Mustangs have been one of the more productive ACC teams on both sides of the ball. Virginia Tech has played very few good offenses this season. SMU is a top-15 offense by yards per play. Virginia Tech’s best opponent to date was Pitt, who was missing their starting QB. VA Tech lost 35-33.
South Florida at East Carolina (-2, 39): One of the lowest totals of the season here, as there are some questions at the QB position for both teams. USF’s Michael Van Buren Jr. took a shot to the head last week and was held out of the game. Luke Kromenhoek was 7-of-10 passing for just 39 yards and had 15 carries for 92 yards, as the Bulls were led by two scoop-and-scores.
The Pirates have had a revolving door between Mitch Griffis and Emory Williams. Neither guy has played very well. Both of these defenses have been solid, though, as the total implies. No bet from me here, but I do want to note that the Bulls are the only team in the nation to have not thrown an interception yet. We’ll see how long that continues.
New Mexico (-9.5, 37) at Nevada: Another anemic total. Hopefully you cashed in on one of my best bets last week on San Jose State. The Lobos can’t score, but Jason Eck’s defense is ferocious. They’ve been asked to cover some big numbers recently and haven’t come remotely close. The Lobos are 7-1 now, but have scored exactly 21 points in each of the last three games. Nevada has been looking better of late, but this number has been adjusted on UNM, and I think those who were fading them the last few weeks got the best cuts of meat off the bone. This line seems much more reasonable.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 10 games on our Pro Picks Page.
