Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, November 6 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: My Steel Magnolia (4th Race)
Fourth Race
1. My Steel Magnolia
2. Just Singing
3. The Grumpy Rabbit
MY STEEL MAGNOLIA looks like a filly considerably improved from the start of her form cycle – fact that could be obscured by the well-beaten fifth last out. But last out was the Dogwood, a G3 that came up closer to a G1, and in it, MSM got hooked into a very, very strong middle pace that set the table for Conceit to win. All things considered, she ran very well there, and now fresh with a bunch of suggestive CD drills for new barn that, frankly, just based on accomplishment, should be an upgrade on the previous one. Was JUST SINGING-positive during her winter/spring form cycle, but blah in the GP Oaks and hasn’t raced since. No recent work videos – frustrating. Wonder if she has more pace now, because her lack of any positional speed was a drawback. THE GRUMPY RABBIT never has hit a level as high as the top two, and is back from a longer layoff. One work video from here was solid.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Friday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Frosty Jack
2. National Forest
3. Tyrone Terrific
Will try the “other” Cox on top – but mainly as a guess. FROSTY JACK debuts for the B Cox barn off a series of IND works we can’t see. Shows $275K auction price, debuts for $150K – whatever, I guess. The pattern and times are appealing, and I can’t take a short number on Cox-trained favorite NATIONAL FOREST. This one cost $550K, ran very competitively in his first start, mildly so in his second – and gets the quick hook entered for the claiming tag? Caps the ceiling, for sure. They bothered (presumably) to ship firster TYRONE TERRIFIC from PID for the big-money debut for some reason? Fast works if nothing else.
Second Race
1. Rumor Mill
2. Ralley to Me
3. Sweet Reward
Unfortunately, no work video for firster RUMOR MILL, but the pattern, times, pedigree – and, I’ll be honest: vibe – suggest to me this is a live debuter at a price. RALLEY TO ME came from far back in a good closing debut going 5 1/2f on a conventional course at Ellis, then pressed the pace (who knows how fast: Timeform isn’t rating it) going 6 1/2 at Kentucky Downs and ran at least as well. Those two very different performances say that – the horse is good! 10-1 on the line. SWEET REWARD might handle grass but taken here as the top dirt pick should this rain off.
Third Race
1. Symmetric
2. Eden’s Charm
3. A La Vie
Another 2yo maiden with very limited workout video – back to the Dark Ages we go?? SYMMETRIC shows a July-Sept gap in the work pattern but since returning to the tab has stayed solid. By Maxfield, who, to date, has been a far better sire of dirt horses than turf and synthetic. All those Tapeta breezes and the filly might find herself when getting onto CD dirt in an actual race. EDEN’S CHARM based at CDT where we never have work video, but a very encouraging combo of pattern and times, and always like when firsters draw outside in a sprint. A LA VIE could be well suited for this short 5f sprint trip based on her first two starts. Blinkers on. Showed some speed in first two but might need to make the lead from rail draw to win.
Fifth Race
1. Altadena
2. Elusive Ring
3. Lexi V.
ALTADENA entered for turf in her debut but ran so well after that race rained off that connections gave her a dirt look second out – and discovered they were right to think they had a turf horse. Third out they tried her long on grass – she didn’t stay. Fourth out, long again, and rained out again. I come to the conclusion that if this race stays on, a talented filly will, for the first time, get to do what she wants to do, which is sprint on grass. ELUSIVE RING popped and stopped from rail draw in full field making debut on dirt – and will guess she’s an entirely different horse on turf. LEXI V. has pretty strong contending form from her two turf sprints to be priced as high as 5-1. Deep race, I guess.
Sixth Race
1. Wytheville
2. Jem’s Hershey Kiss
3. Can’t Stop Willis
Trainer W Ward the last five years with first-time starters, age 3 or older, in dirt-sprint maiden claimers in Kentucky has failed to win with seven runners. But … four finished second and all raced competitively, and will guess first-timer WYTHEVILLE has some speed, races on or near the lead breaking from a favorable post, and proves capable of handling maiden 20s first time out. JEM’S HERSHEY KISS gets a subtle class drop, might not have handled slop last out in first race back from a break, and stands, to me, a good chance of outrunning his odds. CAN’T STOP WILLIS a very “logical” short-priced 13-race maiden who was nowhere close to winning last out at this class level.
Seventh Race
1. Colt Forty Seven
2. Captain Mercury
3. Storm the Streets
Want no part of the shorter prices and looking at this confusing race as a laboratory for chaos. COLT FORTY SEVEN has form all over the place – voided claim for $50K, but ran last out for a mere $10K. He’s generally been “good enough” to contend here, has a win at CD, and – who knows – might be able to stick close enough to a moderate pace. If you take the tack that CAPTAIN MERCURY just wasn’t comfortable on the KEE surface last out, he’s a major player – if he can stay a mile, which is far from certain. STORM THE STREETS just might quietly be cycling back to those big numbers he ran in June and July.
Eighth Race
1. Air Recruit
2. Neat
3. Yinzer
AIR RECRUIT can win this with his best race – which we didn’t get last time. Was tapped for speed out of the gate, which lit the horse up – he pulled much too hard while too close to a strong pace, and tired. Much work had been done getting the horse to relax behind cover and finish – which paid off in the MTH stakes win. That’s the trip I see him getting here, and it might work. NEAT too would benefit from a strong pace, and I’m putting more stock in the fact he won with blinkers added last out off an M Maker claim than the modest 90 Beyer that performance earned. Concede that YINZER might prove too much for either of the top two – that’s if he is not pushed too hard up front. Outside draw does give rider options, and maybe he’s just faster anyway. Guessing he’s the favorite, though, and not much of a price.
Ninth Race
1. Baby Hello
2. McKinzie’s Glory
3. She’s Gotta Go
BABY HELLO abysmal two back making dirt debut – but far, far better winning last out, and don’t believe it was merely the class drop that produced that performance. Until the last start she’d faced higher-class horses than these, and though the win came over 5 1/2, one might guess this 7f could work just as well. Decent break and she could fall into an ideal trip. MCKINZIE’S GLORY gets meaningful class relief, and that might mean something since she has older dirt races that very much fit this spot. SHE’S GOTTA GO‘s dud last time too bad to be true — probably. Keep tabs on the apprentice jockey that rides her: He’s competent, and 10 pounds is not nothing.
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