UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic
Our first power-conference game in Week 10 isn’t until Friday, but we’re getting closer, as back-to-back nights of MACtion give way to the American Conference and the Sun Belt on Thursday. UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic will be the game on everybody’s radar, as we have a total rising towards the mid-70s. The Owls paid off Over bettors at every number last week against North Texas. We’ll see if the same thing happens again here.
James Madison vs. Southern Miss is the other game, one made far less interesting with JMU’s back-to-back losses to App State and Troy. The Dukes will not be in the College Football Playoff barring some sort of catastrophe for the other Group of Six candidates. UTSA, though, has a shot, so that game might have some CFP implications.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 3, 12:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 10 College Football Picks and Predictions.
UTSA (-7, 73) at Florida Atlantic
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
UTSA’s lone loss on the season came at Texas, so running the table, including the American title game, would have them in consideration for the lone G6 CFP berth. However, to do that, the Roadrunners will need to avoid “The Jeff Traylor Special”. UTSA lost three games as a favorite last season, two during the 2024 season, and two during the 2023 season, with spreads ranging from -2 to -9.5. With no margin for error as a G6 program, these errors have been quite significant.
A weeknight game in Boca Raton against an offense capable of putting up points and yards feels like a dicey spot for Traylor. The Owls are just 80th in the nation in yards per play, and haven’t really done a whole lot better in conference action compared to non-conference. That said, they racked up 6.31 YPP in four October games, so things have been looking up a bit of late.
However, this is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation, allowing more than seven yards per play. Only West Virginia and Colorado State have been worse on a per-play basis defensively. That has been evident the last three games, as Army had 56 points and 479 rushing yards, Rice had 49 points and over 600 yards of total offense, including 499 on the ground, and North Texas had 48 points and 644 yards.
UTSA is a top-50 offense nationally on a per-play basis, but they have actually fallen back from 6.41 YPP in non-conference action to just 5.8 against American Conference foes. They averaged over nine yards per play against UT Rio Grande Valley to open the season and have only mustered 5.72 YPP against FBS competition. This is obviously a fabulous matchup against the FAU defense, but UTSA’s offense has left a lot to be desired thus far.
QB Owen McCown has a 10/4 TD/INT ratio with a 69.5% completion rate. The Roadrunners also have two guys rushing for over six yards per carry. They don’t generate a ton of really explosive plays, which is why their YPP number isn’t higher, despite some pretty good offensive skill guys.
FAU QB Caden Veltkamp already has 23 TD passes on the season. He’s completed 71.8% of his passes, so he’s been efficient throwing the football, even with a marginal at best running game. Zach Kittley’s Air Raid scheme hasn’t had a ton of balance thus far, as FAU’s top four running backs are all between 4.1 and 4.6 yards per carry.
Overall, UTSA has a pretty average defense that has been a little bit better in conference play than it was early in the season. The cover in this game may come down to turnovers, as UTSA has 13 takeaways and entered the week tied for 22nd in turnover margin.
UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction
FAU has the second-worst defense in the nation by yards per carry allowed. The Roadrunners are one of 33 teams averaging at least five yards per carry on offense. So, we’ll see if FAU is able to stack up better here or not. Army and Rice both run option offenses. UTSA does not. I really think Traylor’s got the markedly better team here, but this seems like a tricky spot to trust him.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +7
Other Thursday Games
James Madison (-15.5, 58) at Southern Miss: I incorrectly believed that James Madison would bounce back and hammer Troy last week. Not only was there no hammering, the Dukes even lost outright. Southern Miss is a pretty poor team overall, though the running game has come alive over the last couple of weeks. I don’t think I could get to a place where I’d back JMU as over a two-touchdown favorite, even if they are clearly the more talented team. You also have to wonder what the team’s mindset is with some recent QB concerns and no shot at the CFP.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 10 games on our Pro Picks Page.
