NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
We’ve reached the conclusion of the 2026 NASCAR season, and unfortunately, as we head to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the running of the Cup Series Championship Race, it seems that the awarding of the title is merely a formality at this point. Kyle Larson has what seems to be an insurmountable lead in the standings. Larson needs only to score nine points to wrap up the season crown, a feat he can clinch simply by finishing first or second in Stage 1. Making the prospects for a Christopher Bell or Denny Hamlin miracle comeback shot even worse is that Larson sits atop our initial simulation run for Sunday, and the oddsmakers at DraftKings back that sentiment by making Larson the race favorite at +400.
Homestead-Miami is one of five tracks I designate as Cookie Cutter Speedways on the circuit. In recent weeks, we have visited Kansas and Las Vegas, other tracks that share that same designation. Be sure to analyze the results of those similar races before placing any wagers for this week. One of the unique facets of this week’s race however, will be the fact that it has been about 20 months since we last visited this track. That was in March of 2025, a race won by Alex Bowman of Hendrick Motorsports. He has yet to win this season, but with his teammate William Byron snapping a long winless streak last week at Martinsville, perhaps this could be the week that Bowman finally sees Victory Lane. If you recall, for two decades from 2000-19, this track hosted the season finale race. Since then, Phoenix took those honors away, but HMS gets its championship moment once again this weekend. For the record, the handicap-ability grade of this track is a respectable B.
A quick check of the odds board at DraftKings finds Larson the favorite at +400, followed by Hamlin and Ryan Blaney at +550, Bell at +600, Tyler Reddick at +650, Chase Briscoe at +700, and Byron at +800. Other than those seven drivers, no one else is better than +1600. How does that compare to our initial simulation? Well, those favorites make up seven of the top 8 projections, with one potential underdog driver looking to make his own statement. That is Bubba Wallace, who is second on our initial projections. He has a recent history of practicing and qualifying very well here. His race day stats aren’t quite at the same level, but if he can maintain the pace he set at practice and qualifying for 267 laps on Sunday, he could find himself hoisting the final checkered flag of the ’26 season at +1800. Check the stats/predictions below or this week’s simulation projections for some other potential live underdogs.
Before digging into what to look for on Championship Sunday, here’s a quick wrap up of what happened last week at Martinsville, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date with one race remaining.
Initial Martinsville simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW -7.15 units for the season
Final Martinsville Simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +25.05 units for the season (These are +81.85 units for the last two seasons!)
Final Martinsville Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +0.35 units for the season
Final Martinsville Simulation Top 3 drivers To Win: Three Losers – total return -3 units – NOW -5.45 units for the season (Byron won from the 10th projected position)
Final simulation top 3 Martinsville projections: one winner (Gibbs +400) two losers –total return +2 units – NOW -3.1 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Martinsville projections: one winner, four losers – total return -3.65 units – Now -45.9 units for the season
We hit on six Top 10s, with only one of those, Hamlin, coming outside of my new -250 wager barrier. Thus, with the two losing wagers crossing that threshold, we profited +0.6 units on top 10s for the week. I am very interested in seeing how this strategy plays out over the course of a full season next year.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
Final simulation top 5 Martinsville projections: one winner, four losers – total return -3.65 units – Now -63.15 units for the season
Top Martinsville Longshots to win: four losers –total return -4 units – Now -19 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Martinsville: Wallace (8th), Buescher (24th), Hocevar (21st), Van Gisbergen (5th)– Now 98 for 141 for the season, picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
It’s been a struggle for William Byron in 2026, as he got his first win of the season at Martinsville at 9-1 odds. Even though he has a history of being very good at that track, his inability to put it together this season kept me from backing him. That said, it seems that there are a lot of drivers pulling unexpected wins out recently, something that typically doesn’t happen in the Chase playoffs. That in itself has slowed what was a great season in the first 24 races. I feel like we are limping to the finish line this season in terms of our betting action. Hopefully we can wrap up the year with an outright or underdog win.
Looking ahead to Homestead-Miami now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the four races that have been run at this Cookie Cutter Speedway in the Next Gen Car era. In those four races, the most important simulation factors have proven to be 1) how drivers fare on cookie-cutter speedways 2) practice speeds. This is the first track we’ve missed in a while in which practice speeds seemed to matter. In fact, the last two drivers that finished first in practice here finished first and third in the race. Similarly, the last two pole sitters finished first and second. Note that the practice and qualifying sessions have a unique format for this race, with practice on Friday night and qualifying on Saturday. That said, with what is currently a 3-car breakaway at the top, I’d be surprised to see anyone other than that current tightly grouped Top 3 on the projections wind up on top. Here are the stats for the L4 races at Homestead-Miami for all active drivers that have raced here, with Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, and now-retired Martin Truex winning the races covered:
Average Starting Position in the Last Four Races at Homestead-Miami
1. Darrell Wallace: 6.33
2. Kyle Larson: 6.5
3. Josh Berry: 7
4. Tyler Reddick: 7.75
5. Alex Bowman: 8
6. Christopher Bell: 8.5
…
23. Daniel Suarez: 23.25
24. Austin Cindric: 24
25. Erik Jones: 24.25
26. Austin Dillon: 24.5
27. Ryan Preece: 31.67
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 35
Average Practice Speed Rank in the Last Four Races at Homestead-Miami
1. Darrell Wallace: 1.67
2. Tyler Reddick: 5.25
3. Christopher Bell: 7.25
4. Michael McDowell: 8.75
5. Noah Gragson: 9.33
6. Ross Chastain: 9.75
…
23. Austin Dillon: 22
24. Josh Berry: 23
25. Ty Gibbs: 24.25
26. Chris Buescher: 25
27. Ryan Preece: 30
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 35
Average Running Position in the Last Four Races at Homestead-Miami
1. Ryan Blaney: 6.75
2. William Byron: 7
3. Kyle Larson: 7.75
4. Denny Hamlin: 8.5
5. Tyler Reddick: 10
6. Darrell Wallace: 10.33
…
23. Chris Buescher: 19.5
24. Michael McDowell: 21
25. Ricky Stenhouse: 23
26. Justin Haley: 25
27. Erik Jones: 25.5
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32
Average Fastest Laps in the Last Four Races at Homestead-Miami
1. Kyle Larson: 46.25
2. Ryan Blaney: 26.25
3. Denny Hamlin: 18
4. Christopher Bell: 14.75
5. Tyler Reddick: 13.5
6. William Byron: 11
…
23. Austin Dillon: 2
24. Ricky Stenhouse: 1.75
25. Michael McDowell: 1.25
26. Shane Van Gisbergen: 1
27. Erik Jones: 0.75
28. Ryan Preece: 0.67
Average Driver Rating the Last Four Races at Homestead-Miami
1. Kyle Larson: 118.45
2. Ryan Blaney: 113.08
3. William Byron: 108.7
4. Tyler Reddick: 103.75
5. Denny Hamlin: 100.13
6. Darrell Wallace: 95.5
…
23. Austin Cindric: 63.48
24. Michael McDowell: 59.5
25. Ricky Stenhouse: 55.08
26. Justin Haley: 53.55
27. Erik Jones: 51.55
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 29.9
Most Average Laps Run in the Top 15 in the Last Four Races at Homestead-Miami
1. Ryan Blaney: 237.5
2. Denny Hamlin: 235
3. William Byron: 234
4. AJ Allmendinger: 226.25
5. Tyler Reddick: 218
6. Kyle Larson: 212.75
…
23. Austin Cindric: 81.25
24. Justin Haley: 42.25
25. Ricky Stenhouse: 42
26. Michael McDowell: 37.75
27. Erik Jones: 24.25
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 8
Best Average Finish in the Last Four Races at Homestead-Miami
1. AJ Allmendinger: 5.75
2. William Byron: 8.5
3. Darrell Wallace: 9
4. Alex Bowman: 9.33
5. Ryan Preece: 10.67
6. Denny Hamlin: 11.25
…
23. Zane Smith: 20.5
24. Ricky Stenhouse: 21.75
25. Ty Gibbs: 22.5
26. Justin Haley: 23.75
27. Ross Chastain: 24.25
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32
Other than the practice/qualifying and the average finish categories, it’s the usual suspects in terms of who dominates the stats at Hoemstead-Miami, with the likes of Larson, Hamlin, Blaney, and Byron setting the pace. However, the average finish category is noteworthy, as with AJ Allmendinger in first, Bubba Wallace 3rd, and Ryan Preece 5th, we immediately have a group of potential surprise drivers for Sunday.
That said, with all of the stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Homestead-Miami are, in order, Larson, Reddick, Blaney, Byron, Hamlin. In terms of Track Designation ratings, the top guys are Briscoe, Byron, Larson, Hamlin, and Cindric. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Larson, Blaney, Bell, Briscoe, and Logano. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice (Friday evening) and qualifying, which is set for Saturday at 2:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after practice and qualifying), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Larson, Byron, Reddick, Briscoe, Wallace
Top underdogs to consider (+1600 or higher): Logano, Wallace, Allmendinger, Preece
Favorites to struggle: Elliott, Chastain, Buescher, Gibbs
The 267-lap event at Homestead-Miami is set for 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 8th.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full initial simulation. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.
