College Football Week 10 Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

We are now double-digit weeks into the college football season, which doesn’t even feel possible. This season has been a blur. As I wrote last week, I don’t remember the last time we had a season where, by Week 10, we didn’t definitively know who the best couple of teams in the sport are. Notre Dame has ascended to the top of my ratings after dismantling Navy last week, but I’d hear arguments for virtually any of the next handful of teams as being the best. Ohio State and Penn State are set to do battle this week, which could/should help clarify the top of the sport, but there’s still a lot to be sorted out. Let’s look at where the market is early in week 10 and try to grab some value college football Week 10 best bets before lines move, based on my T Shoe Index projections.

 

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Texas A&M vs. South Carolina (+2.5; 44.5)  

Fresh off a huge win against LSU in Week 9, Texas A&M is all the rage now as an SEC title threat and playoff hopeful. Their only loss is to TSI #1 Notre Dame, after all, so they should roll against South Carolina this week, right? Not so fast, my friend (Lee Corso voice). TSI projects the home Gamecocks as 0.5-point favorites against the Aggies. This is the perfect letdown spot for the Aggies, and against P4 competition. These teams’ game grades have been pretty similar. The line opened A&M -4 and is already down to -2.5 in what I think could be one of those betting “pros vs Joes” games. Obviously, you’d love to get a full 3 here with South Carolina, but I think this is upset city, so let’s just call our shot with the moneyline. 

College Football Week 10 Best Bet: South Carolina ML (+110 or better)

Ohio State (-4; 46.5) vs. Penn State 

The Buckeyes head to Happy Valley on Saturday to take on the Nittany Lions as 4-point favorites. I played Ohio State on the spread at -3.5, but I’m more focused on the total here. Ohio State played an absolute clunker of a game against Nebraska that went Under the total. If Nebraska had any semblance of a functional offense, they could’ve capitalized on Ohio State’s shortcomings in the secondary on multiple occasions for touchdowns that would’ve easily sent that game Over the total, so I think we’re getting some depressed value on the O/U in this game. 

We know the Buckeyes can score with a variety of options offensively, and the one thing Penn State has done well this year is connect on the deep ball (assuming Drew Allar is indeed playing after getting banged up against Wisconsin), which is Ohio State’s kryptonite, as we saw in the Oregon game. I think this game will more closely resemble the 2017 epic shootout (that I attended) in Ohio Stadium than whatever that Nebraska game was last week. TSI projects this game into the 50s, so I really like the Over here.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet Bet: Over 46.5 (Play to 48)

For more college football Week 10 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 10 hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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