Memphis vs. South Florida
Hugs and hand pounds go out to the MAC for giving us six games across Tuesday and Wednesday. Before we get to power conferences on Friday, we have a game from the American and a game from the Sun Belt on Thursday. Memphis vs. South Florida will draw more eyes and more bets, but the Battle on the Bayou between Louisiana and UL Monroe is shaping up to be an intriguing rivalry game.
I’ll cover both, but Memphis vs. South Florida is surely the more notable matchup.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 10, 7:10 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 11 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Memphis (-3.5, 49.5) at South Florida
8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
To Tampa we go for a game of contrasting teams to say the least. The Tigers have scored an average of 43 points per game over their seven wins. South Florida has 29.8 PPG in their six wins and just 20 PPG in their five wins against FBS opponents. The Bulls dropped 59 on Delaware State, but have yet to exceed 30 points against anybody else. Will they have to do that in order to beat Memphis?
The total would suggest that they don’t, seeing as how the Bulls entered the week as a top-10 scoring defense with just 15.1 PPG allowed and a top-25 defense in yards per play with 4.84. I wrote way back in August in our College Football Betting Guide that I really liked how USF hired Josh Aldridge away from East Carolina to be the DC. That was the first hire that Brian Hartline made when he took the job and it has paid immediate dividends.
Speaking of Hartline, we all assumed that the offense would be the story at USF with the former Ohio State OC, WR whisperer, and a pretty damn good player at that position in his own right. But, that has not been the case at all. It should be noted that the Bulls are the only team in the nation to have not thrown an interception, but Michael Van Buren Jr. and Luke Kromenhoek have also combined for just seven TD passes in 217 pass attempts. The longest passing play of the season is just 42 yards.
D.J. Crowther has been solid as a feature back, but the Bulls are one of three teams without a play of 50+ yards. Michigan and Akron are the others. The Wolverines just canned their OC. The Zips probably won’t be far behind with a coaching shake-up. I don’t think anybody would have expected the Bulls to hit mid-November and be outside the top 100 in yards per play. Take away that game against Delaware State and they’ve mustered just 4.82 YPP.
Usually we see Memphis way better on defense than what has transpired this season. The Tigers are barely inside the top 100 in YPP allowed, but they have improved as the season has gone along. In five October games, all against American opponents, Memphis allowed 5.28 YPP. That was a huge departure from the 6.53 in non-conference matchups. What the defense does do well, however, is force turnovers with 18 takeaways leading to a tie for 23rd in turnover margin.
While USF has zero plays of 50+ yards, Memphis has nine and entered the week tied for seventh in that department. Only LSU, North Texas, Miami (FL), and Oklahoma State had more plays of 10+ yards entering the week. Conversely, USF was tied for 113th in that stat. Charles Huff, who was a running backs coach at Penn State, Mississippi State, Alabama, and with the NFL’s Buffalo Bills, has a stud at running back in Jalen Carter and another guy who moves the pile forward in Manny Covey. Carter has 6.2 yards per pop, Covey has 5.4, and the team has 5.4 as a unit.
QB Marcus Stokes has thrown 25 touchdowns with a 69.1% completion rate on the season. This Memphis group is averaging 7.2 yards per play, with 6.6 against American opponents. In conference games, Stokes has a 16/3 TD/INT ratio, with all three picks coming against Tulane in the Tigers’ 31-17 loss. He’s thrown for 306+ yards in four of those games, including that Tulane loss.
Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction
The Bulls have a great set of defensive numbers, but this Memphis offense is a beast. The Tigers are seventh in YPP. USF’s opponents have been FIU (96th), Army (41st), Delaware State, Bowling Green (130th), Temple (38th), UTSA (48th), Kent State (135th), UAB (131st), and East Carolina (116th), with those yards per play ranks as of the start of the week. The Bulls scored 14 points in the final 3:13 to beat Army and lost to Temple and UTSA. I’ll take my chances with Memphis here.
Pick: Memphis -3.5
Other Thursday Game
Louisiana (-10.5, 50) at Louisiana Monroe: The Ragin’ Cajuns have taken home the Wooden Boot in seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings, with Monroe’s lone win coming back in 2022. They came close last season in a 30-27 loss in Lafayette. This is another year where the lads from Lafayette are a much stronger team. The Warhawks have managed just 5.1 YPP for the season and just 5.04 in conference play. They have won two of their last three on the road in big upset fashion.
Louisiana has actually allowed more yards per play in Sun Belt action than ULM, and the two teams have played similar schedules. The Ragin’ Cajuns do have the vastly better offense, though, checking in with 6.23 YPP in conference games, including 7.91 last time out in a 28-26 win over South Alabama. Still, I can’t trust them on the road here in a rivalry game, especially with the Warhawks playing a bit better of late.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 11 games on our Pro Picks Page.
