The New York Giants will be looking for a third consecutive victory when they host the Washington Commanders in the Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this intriguing showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 10 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Commanders vs. Giants
When: Thursday, November 12 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Channel: Prime Video
Commanders vs. Giants Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, November 10. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Giants -135, Commanders +114
Spread: Giants -2.5 (-110), Commanders +2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 41.5 (-105), Under 41.5 (-115)
Commanders vs. Giants Analysis
The Commanders had covered in two straight games before a competitive non-cover in a 20-13 loss to the Rams last week. So, while the Giants will be billed as the hotter team coming into this one, make no mistake about it: Washington isn’t some pushover.
Over the last three weeks, the Commanders have been a top-10 defense in the NFL. During that stretch, Washington has an EPA/play allowed of -0.074, and the team ranks seventh against the pass (-0.090). The latter is especially interesting, as the Commanders were good against the run early in the season.
Washington is starting to resemble a Dan Quinn defense, and that makes the Commanders hard to pass up at plus-money odds. The Giants have also been extremely tough to score on lately. New York ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA/play allowed (-0.166) over the last three weeks, so this team has been getting stops, too. The difference? The Commanders have Jayden Daniels, while the Giants have J.J. McCarthy.
McCarthy has done a decent job as New York’s starter recently, but he’s a quarterback who likes to play off a productive running game. Will he have that against Washington?
Daniels, meanwhile, will just go out there and make things happen, no matter the opponent. This hasn’t been the talented signal-caller’s season thus far, but he’s going to like this matchup. Daniels rushed for 103 yards and two touchdowns the last time he faced New York, and he left some meat on the bone as a passer. This time around, I expect him to deliver.
Our betting splits show the Giants are the public side, drawing more than three-quarters of the bets as the line has moved from New York -1.5 to -2.5. We’ve also seen the total drop from 44 to 41 at Circa Sports.
Commanders vs. Giants Player Props
LEAN: McCarthy Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Our OptaAI player prop projections pages have hundreds of Week 10 options to look through, but McCarthy’s passing yardage total stood out in this matchup. DraftKings has it at 210.5, while OptaAI projects him for only 188.86. That’s an edge of 12.8% to the Under.
McCarthy threw for at least 243 yards in each of his first two games with the Giants, but he managed only 127 against the Eagles last week. It’s possible the extra film on him is helping defenses prepare, and it looks like he’ll also have to deal with some rough weather Thursday.
Commanders vs. Giants Pick
Grabbing a field goal would be another option, but I’m taking the Commanders to win outright. Washington is far from perfect, but these defenses appear comparable. That makes Daniels’ playmaking ability the key difference, and I trust him to deliver a victory at MetLife Stadium.
Bet: Commanders ML (+118)
