Tulane vs. Memphis
Some college football Friday night games mean more than others. In the context of the College Football Playoff chase, Tulane vs. Memphis is one of those Friday games that means substantially more than the other two. The Group of Five was unrepresented in the first round of CFP rankings, but the winner of this game will probably crack that list of 25.
Houston vs. UCF and Northwestern vs. USC are the others, as Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley is again complaining about the Big Ten schedule and how things have shaken out thus far. Houston is in a bounce back spot after a shocking home loss to West Virginia. But, all eyes will be on Tulane vs. Memphis and a lot of eyes have been following the betting action on this game, with the line going up and down.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 5, 3:45 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 11 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Tulane vs. Memphis (-3.5, 54)
Friday, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Things have probably been a little bit uncomfortable around the Tulane program, as head coach Jon Sumrall has been mentioned for nearly every available job and there are a lot of good ones out there. He and his agent should have their pick of the litter when the season ends. For now, he has unfinished business in New Orleans and the Green Wave can take a huge step towards trying to complete that task this week.
Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield doesn’t seem to be getting the same buzz, even though he’s certainly done well enough to warrant a new position at a bigger school. For starters, he has sixth-year senior Brendon Lewis playing the best of his career, as he’s thrown for 1,869 yards and ran for 562 more. Lewis has shaken off a recent ankle injury to lead wins over South Florida and Rice. He’s probably not 100% going into this one, but the Nevada transfer has a career-best completion rate and is just 421 yards away from setting a career-high in that department as well.
Tulane does have experience in chasing around a mobile QB, as Jake Retzlaff is their leading rusher and so he can simulate Lewis for the scout team. The BYU transfer has thrown for over 1,600 yards and rushed for over 500 more. Perhaps that will help the Green Wave defense be better equipped to slow down Lewis, but RB Sutton Smith has nearly six yards per carry, so this isn’t a one-trick-pony offense.
So, long story short, this game is about which defense shows up. The two quarterbacks have similar stat lines and skill sets. Smith is a better running back than Tulane’s Javin Gordon, but the Tigers have also played the 122nd-ranked strength of schedule according to Sagarin. Tulane is 59th in that department.
From an EPA/play standpoint on defense, Memphis is 40th and Tulane is 53rd per CFB Graphs, but Memphis has faced the 113th-ranked set of opposing offenses per BCFToys. Tulane has faced the 64th. And their offense is obviously a much more formidable unit than what the Tigers have typically faced this season. Memphis is top-50 in yards per play allowed, but, again, context matters and I think it’s that context that has created this line move.
Tulane has gained a half-yard per play more in conference action. Pair that with the opponent-adjusted defensive metrics for Memphis and that explains this line move.
Personally, I still think Memphis is a really good team and I don’t know what Tulane really is. They’ve been all over the map this season. Recently, they beat East Carolina and Army by 7 and lost to UTSA by 22. It feels like a chance to buy a little low on the Tigers with this line coming down so much.
Pick: Memphis -3.5
Other Friday Games
Houston (-1.5, 47) vs. UCF: FS1 has this 8 p.m. ET kickoff in Orlando. Houston has the better defense and offense by EPA/play, but UCF is better in both yards per play metrics. The Knights are actually a borderline top-30 defense based on opponent-adjusted metrics per BCFToys. They’re a top-20 defense by yards per play.
Houston’s bad loss last week by 10 points against West Virginia definitely changed the complexion of this handicap and how the Cougars are perceived. Tough game to pick. UCF smashed West Virginia two games ago. At least we have other options to pick from.
Northwestern at USC (-14, 50.5): Lincoln Riley complained about the travel schedule for the Trojans, who got home late last Saturday and are hosting Northwestern on the short week on Friday night. FOX has this 9 p.m. ET kickoff and we’ll see how much they harp on the travel situation.
USC actually leads the nation in yards per play. Northwestern does have stronger defensive metrics in terms of yards per play, but USC is the better pass defense, so they have the stronger EPA/play defensive numbers. They also have four more takeaways and all of them are interceptions, leading to the big gap. No play here, lean USC since they’ve played much better at home.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 11 games on our Pro Picks Page.
