Houston vs. Texas Tech
Some early-season games mean a lot more than others, not just in terms of the College Football Playoff, the polls, or the standings, but to help us find out about who teams really are. This Houston vs. Texas Tech game on Friday night sort of encompasses all of those things, as it could be an extremely important game in the CFP picture, but it is especially helpful in seeing if the Cougars are ready to take that leap that some are expecting.
Neither team has been tested much ahead of this Top 25 matchup, but they do have a common opponent in Oregon State, for whatever that’s worth. Houston beat the Beavers at home 33-20 and the Red Raiders went to Corvallis and won 35-24. Otherwise, Houston pummeled FCS Southern and Texas Tech received some more resistance from FCS Abilene Christian in a 33-10 final, coming nowhere close to covering the 45.5-point number.
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 16, 11:20 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 3 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Houston vs. Texas Tech (-7.5, 53) Prediction
Friday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Pick: Texas Tech -7.5
The biggest question that needs answering in this game is what we can expect from the Red Raiders on offense as the season goes along. It’s clear that they didn’t have a ton of belief in Will Hammond, as top transfer QB Brendan Sorsby was a very early target for Joey McGuire and his staff. As it turns out, Sorsby was like a lot of college-aged kids and engaged in sports betting, but committed the cardinal sin of betting college football games involving his team.
Texas Tech only had 4.65 yards per play against Oregon State, a team that Houston had 7.4 YPP against. In fact, the Red Raiders were outgained by nearly 140 yards this past week and had fewer explosive plays. The major differences between the two offenses were quarterback play and play selection. Oregon State QB Braden Atkinson was 31-of-51 for 413 yards, while Hammond was 20-of-27 for 189 yards. The Red Raiders ran 47 times, but for just 155 yards, just a 3.3 average and Hammond was sacked four times. The offensive line didn’t get much of a push.
Meanwhile, Conner Weigman has only been sacked once. Houston has relied heavily on the run, racking up better than seven yards per carry on 86 attempts thus far. Weigman has completed 69% of his tosses with a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. Atkinson threw for 376 yards on the Cougars, but Houston had a much better offensive showing with 5.6 yards per carry and over 300 passing yards on just 20 completions.
Based on that one common opponent, it does seem as though Houston’s offensive line has gotten more push in the early going, but that both pass defenses have had some issues. The Beavers had 8.0 yards per pass attempt against the Red Raiders and 7.8 against the Cougars. Both secondaries will need to button it up here.
Last season’s game had a lot of intrigue, as Houston came in 4-0 and so did Texas Tech following a bye week and a demolition of Utah in Salt Lake City. To say that the Red Raiders were dominant in that game would be an understatement, as they beat the Cougars 35-11, outgained them by nearly 300 yards, won the turnover battle, had more than two times the first downs, and pitched a shutout in the second half.
However, there are some different faces now. Houston didn’t have RB Makhi Hughes or Re’Shaun Sanford II, who are both over the century mark thus far. Weigman left the game with an upper-body injury in the second quarter and did not return, as backup Zeon Chriss-Gremillion was just 5-of-13 passing for 93 yards.
On the other side, Behren Morton got that start and was 28-of-40 for 345 yards and a touchdown. Jacob Rodriguez led the team with eight tackles, two of them for a loss, and also had two pass breakups. David Bailey had two sacks. Texas Tech was also 5-of-7 on field goals in that game, as they had chances and definitely left some points on the field.
Houston vs. Texas Tech Prediction
Last season’s line was Texas Tech -13 on the road, and they covered with relative ease. This year’s line is in single digits with the Red Raiders at home. Clearly we’ve seen a market-rating adjustment for both of these teams, and a significant one at that. As of now, it looks like too much of an adjustment to me. I have Texas Tech -10.5 in my power ratings. Cameron Dickey only has 2.8 YPC for the Red Raiders after running for better than 1,100 yards last season. J’Koby Williams looks good. Hammond played a lot last season. I’ll give McGuire and his staff the benefit of the doubt, assuming that they’ll get more serious now.
Pick: Texas Tech -7.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 3 games on our Pro Picks Page.
