EPL Best Bets and Predictions September 18-20
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Nottingham Forest vs. Coventry City
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
The Premier League reaches Matchweek 5 with an unusual feel. Four rounds are in the books, the early table is beginning to take shape, with the domestic and European cup schedules already testing squad depth.
Last season’s top two hold the same positions, with Arsenal and Manchester City the only teams still perfect in the league. At the other end, Coventry are not only still searching for their first point but also their first league goal.
There is another complication for bettors: this is the final Premier League weekend before an unusually long international break. The league will pause after Matchweek 5 and not return until October 10, with the September and October international windows merged into a 16-day period.
That adds more difficulty to an already tricky slate. European soccer has entered the equation, with domestic cup matches adding minutes to players’ legs, and the usual injury situations remain. However, three bets stand out.
The first of which features that Coventry side whose return to the Premier League has been brutal. Frank Lampard’s side have lost all four league matches, been outscored 10-0, and remain the only team in the division without a point.
Having shipped five goals against Brighton last weekend, there was no confidence boost in the League Cup in midweek. Instead, a 3-1 home defeat to an Aston Villa side who themselves have had a tough start to the new campaign.
The biggest issue for the Sky Blues is obvious: their failure to score goals. Nottingham Forest is priced at -167 to win but boosted to +190 to do so without conceding. That is massive value.
After opening the season with a pair of defeats to Leeds, ties against Liverpool and Tottenham steadied the ship before a statement 2-1 victory at Aston Villa last weekend. Oliver Glasner is a head coach I have a massive amount of respect for, and he seems to be landing his ideas at the City Ground.
It was a boost to keep their talisman Morgan Gibbs-White, and after a slow start, he is once again central to all his side’s best attacking play. To add to the feel-good factor, Liam Delap scored his first goal since arriving for $65 million in the summer, with strike partner Igor Jesus grabbing his seasonal opener with the winner at Villa.
Glasner is known for setting his teams up with fantastic defense, and keeping the visitors off the scoresheet once again will be helped by key absentees. Former Forest striker Taiwo Awoniyi begins a three-match suspension following his red card against Brighton, while last season’s 17-goal top scorer Haji Wright remains sidelined.
All of which points to backing a Forest win to nil at an attractive price.
EPL Best Bet: Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City — Nottingham Forest to win to nil at +190.
Leeds United vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
In 12 months, Leeds have transitioned from a newly promoted outfit challenged with bucking a trend of sides immediately being relegated back to the Championship to a well-established, rock-solid Premier League team. Daniel Farke’s side were unbeaten in their first three league games before producing a highlight performance in Monday’s 4-1 thrashing of Newcastle, a result that moved them into third place.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored two of those four goals and has now hit the back of the net four times in his last four appearances. The move to Yorkshire from Everton has rejuvenated the 29-year-old, and he looks back to his best, and that is a level that makes him practically unplayable.
Next up is a Crystal Palace side that are struggling to adapt to life after Oliver Glasner, having recorded one win in their opening four league games, losing the other three. To compound that, they have the worst defense in the Premier League.
The Eagles have conceded a league-high 11 goals with each opponent scoring at least twice. Those numbers are backed up by the fact their expected goals against is also the highest total in the EPL, with 54 of the attempts they have faced coming inside their penalty area, another league high.
Elland Road is a fortress with the hosts winning four of their last five there, and it’s no surprise to see they have scored five of their seven goals this season on home soil. Their fans roar them on so passionately at home it seems to give them extra drive, energy, commitment, passion and aggression.
The added bonus to this bet, which is simply for Leeds to win the match, is the scheduling of it. Palace are playing Lech Poznan in the Europa League on Thursday night, giving them considerably less recovery time before Sunday’s trip to Yorkshire.
When these two sides met here last season, Leeds swept the Eagles aside via a comprehensive 4-1 scoreline with that man Calvert-Lewin scoring two first-half goals. The clubs are trending in opposite directions, and with the momentum, extra rest and home advantage, I was shocked to see Leeds priced up at -120 on the Moneyline. That kind of value just has to be snapped up.
EPL Best Bets: Leeds United vs Crystal Palace — Leeds to win at -120.
Manchester City vs. Sunderland
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Manchester City have a fantastic opportunity to go into the international break at the top of the Premier League table and as the only side to have a 100% record. Last weekend’s 1-0 derby win at their city rivals United was something of a statement, having to play for over 70 minutes with 10 men after Phil Foden’s red card.
The nature of City’s winner may have been contentious, but their quality, organization, desire and team spirit certainly were not. They thoroughly deserved the win to add to those against Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, and Coventry in the Premier League as well as Porto in the Champions League.
Those last three wins have all come to nil, and that is the route I am taking once more. Again, we can see the price of Enzo Maresca’s men winning boosted from -385 to +120 if they can do so without conceding.
The win-to-nil has been a very profitable train to be on board this season so far, with us cashing tickets regularly in the opening four weeks. There is no reason to get off yet, especially with a clear form line.
Arsenal beat Coventry to nil in their opening game and posted a 2-0 defeat of Sunderland last weekend. City then beat Coventry 1-0, and I expect them to follow the Gunners once more with a similar scoreline against the Black Cats.
Régis Le Bris has only seen his men score three times in their opening four league games, while two 1-0 cup wins illustrate, they are not prolific in front of goal. Despite an incredible 7th-placed finish last season, only the bottom two and 15th-placed Crystal Palace scored fewer than their 42 goals. On the road, they managed just 17, with rock-bottom Wolves the only side to net less.
Finishing 7th also meant European qualification for the first time in 53 years. They celebrated that achievement with a hard-fought 1-0 win over AZ Alkmaar on Wednesday. For a small and inexperienced squad, that will certainly take its toll as the campaign progresses.
This assignment is about as tough as it gets, with City winning 10 of the last 12 meetings, including a 3-0 win here last season. They have also won 16 of their last 20 league games at the Etihad, with 10 of those coming to nil. I expect another to be added to that tally on Sunday.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester City vs. Sunderland — Manchester City to win to nil at +120.
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