Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, September 17, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: PHI is 4-15 (-13.35 units) with starter Aaron Nola in last 19 games vs NY Mets
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+109 at NYM)
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 56-13 SU (+22.17 units, ROI: 32.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-279 vs ATH)
Trend: Home teams are 26-12 (68.4%, +10.80 units) since 2021 in the Rangers-Red Sox series
– The ROI on this trend is 28.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+105 vs BOS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are around the profitability line at 208-168 for +0.40 units (ROI: 0.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-132 vs PHI), LA ANGELS (-108 vs MIN)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a couple weeks left, they are now 152-228 start for -28.38 units (-7.5% ROI) after losing about 38 units over the three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+136 vs LAD), COLORADO (+161 vs SD), ATHLETICS (+223 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+128 at HOU)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 109-59 for -21.92 units, ROI -13%!
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-196 at COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 46-22 but for -7.73 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-279 vs ATH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 311-376 for -23.32 units, ROI -3.4%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA ANGELS (-108 vs MIN)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 248-181 for +34.19 units, an ROI of +8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-117 vs DET), BOSTON (-126 at TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 183-216 start for -46.65 units (ROI -11.7%).
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+105 vs BOS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 266-198 for +25.44 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-112 at LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 829-1078 but for +30.50 units and an ROI of 1.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+128 at HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 466-397 but for -92.51 units and an ROI of -10.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-117 vs DET)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2240-2124 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -280.68 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-196 at COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,310-2,900 (44.3%) for -275.67 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-164 at CIN), DETROIT (-103 at CWS)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 689-575 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.10 units, for an ROI of 1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-132 vs PHI), LA ANGELS (-108 vs MIN)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 118-172 SU (-27.29 units, ROI: -9.4%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR MINNESOTA at LAA (-112 CURRENTLY)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 43-147 SU for -45.45 units (ROI: -23.9%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+223 at TB)
When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 98-61-7 (61.6%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-TB (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 341-350 run (+15.75 units, ROI: 2.3%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-132 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 280-182 in their last 462 tries (+45.02 units, ROI: 9.7%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-279 vs ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-260 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 26-10-2 (72.2%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-TB (o/u at 7.5)
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 56-13 SU (+22.17 units, ROI: 32.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-279 vs ATH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 645-643 for +12.63 units, good for +1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: ATHLETICS +223 (+25 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -126 (+40 diff), HOUSTON -155 (+16)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MILWAUKEE (95-57) at (952) PITTSBURGH (75-77)
Trend: Over the total is 44-28-2 (+13.20 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-PIT (o/u at 8.5)
(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (92-60) at (954) CINCINNATI (71-81)
Trend: Brady Singer’s teams are 13-5 (+9.30 units) in his last 18 starts vs NL West opponents
Trend: Brady Singer’s teams are 23-8 (+15.52 units) in his last 31 home day game starts
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+136 vs LAD)
(955) SAN DIEGO (83-69) at (956) COLORADO (56-96)
Trend: SD is 36-22 (+13.55 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-196 at COL)
(957) PHILADELPHIA (84-68) at (958) NEW YORK-NL (69-83)
Trend: PHI is 16-34 (-15.93 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: PHI is 4-15 (-13.35 units) in the last 19 vs NY Mets with starter Aaron Nola
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+109 at NYM)
(959) ATHLETICS (61-91) at (960) TAMPA BAY (92-59)
Trend: TB is 52-25 (+15.36 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-279 vs ATH)
Trend: Under the total is 24-15-2 (+7.45 units) when TB is a home favorite of -115 or higher with starter Drew Rasmussen since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-TB (o/u at 7.5)
(961) KANSAS CITY (67-85) at (962) HOUSTON (76-76)
Trend: Under the total is 47-30-5 (+14.00 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-HOU (o/u at 9)
(963) DETROIT (72-80) at (964) CHICAGO-AL (77-75)
Trend: Under the total is 17-8-1 (+8.15 units) when starter Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CWS (o/u at 8.5)
(967) MINNESOTA (71-81) at (968) LOS ANGELES-AL (58-94)
Trend: LAA is 39-73 (-18.54 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-108 vs MIN)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #29: Texas at Boston, Tue 9/15-Thu 9/17
Trend: HOME teams are 26-12 (68.4%, +10.80 units) since 2021 in the TEX-BOS series
– The ROI on this trend is 28.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+105 vs BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): DETROIT (-103 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-279 vs ATH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-132 vs PHI)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SD-COL (o/u at 10.5), KC-HOU (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, September 18)
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