Miami vs. Wake Forest
Is it possible that the national runner-up from last season is even better this season? The Miami Hurricanes went out to Stanford and pummeled the Cardinal to open the season and then embarrassed Florida A&M in Week 2 by a 77-7 count. Through two games, the ‘Canes, led by former Tulane and Duke transfer Darian Mensah, have scored 122 points. They’ll look to add to that total on Friday night against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, who have scored 38 points in each of their two wins to begin the campaign.
This Miami vs. Wake Forest game is one of two power-conference clashes under the Friday Night Lights, as Houston vs. Texas Tech is the other one and the one with a much more competitive point spread.
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 16, 10:00 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 3 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Miami (-20.5, 55.5) vs. Wake Forest Prediction
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: Over 55.5
The degree of difficulty has not been high for the Hurricanes, but they lead the nation with 10.44 yards per play and more than 700 yards per game. Miami is third in the nation in total yards, ahead of seven teams who have played three games, while they have only played two. Mensah has four total incompletions with eight touchdown passes against zero picks. Collectively, the team has gone 17-for-17 on extra points while using three different kickers.
Will Wake Forest be able to provide more resistance? That is the big question in this game because Purdue ran up 455 yards of offense in the 38-36 double-overtime final last week. The Boilermakers only had 5.55 YPP, but ran 82 offensive plays. Both teams had great success on third down and didn’t waste many possessions. But, Purdue’s defense is not nearly on the level of Miami’s, even with the losses of Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor to the NFL.
This will be a good test for the Demon Deacons offense. They are far more explosive in the passing game with South Alabama and North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez at QB than they were last season with Robby Ashford and Deshawn Purdie. Those two posted a 57.8% completion rate with an 18/11 TD/INT ratio. Lopez is up around 63% with a 4/0 TD/INT ratio thus far, though he’s not nearly as good of a runner as Ashford or Purdie. With the loss of Demond Claiborne, the ground game could probably use a little assistance.
Lopez can throw on the move, but the southpaw is more of a pocket-slinger, having thrown for over 5,300 yards in his career while running for just 849. He’s only been sacked twice this season so far and was sacked just 20 times last season in “Chapel Bill”, so he is mobile enough to get by if the Hurricanes are getting pressure. That said, so far, the ‘Canes have had just three sacks in two games.
The other big question for the Demon Deacons is whether or not they’ll be able to stop Malachi Toney. Toney has 16 catches for 330 yards and four touchdowns, as he’s racked up over 20 yards per reception. While WF kept Akron bottled up, the Zips were 28-of-33 passing in the season opener; they just didn’t find explosive plays. Ryan Browne was 32-of-42 for 329 yards in the game against Purdue. If Mensah’s going to complete that high of a rate of passes, he will pick this secondary apart.
Miami’s extreme efficiency is a pretty interesting talking point, given that OC Shannon Dawson probably hasn’t used up too many of the wrinkles in the playbook. He’s been having Mensah nail down the base concepts and probably a pretty scaled-back route tree. We’ll see what he adds to the mix in this one.
Miami vs. Wake Forest Prediction
The Over 55.5 is what I prefer the most in this game. There is some correlation here with Miami -20.5 in that if this game is high-scoring, it’s likely the Hurricanes who are the driving force behind that. But, this is easily the best quarterback that Miami has faced thus far. It’s also far and away the best QB Wake Forest has faced, as they drew an Akron team who didn’t know who was starting at QB until right before the game and then a Purdue team led by Browne, a decent P4 QB, but not one on Mensah’s level. I think Gio Lopez has the chance to move the ball a little bit here, even with the step up in class, as the Demon Deacons had a 95th percentile Success Rate based on 2025 numbers last week against Purdue.
Pick: Over 55.5
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